2013-01-11

$ES_F : 1463-1475 expected day session range.


Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P 500 futures.

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bullish.


Markets finally managed to break above the resistance zone yesterday and so far have managed to take a peak above in overnight session. So far the control still seems to be in the hands of the bulls and we can see 1500-1526 area in due course. For today I would expect 1463-1461 providing support and if that support is held, market moving up to 1475 area or higher. However the following are some concerns.

  • Markets have now touched multi year high level which were last seen in Jan 2007 and its setting up a double top, which can bring a temporary pull-back. I would expect some selling in that area, especially in the early part of the session.
  • VIX is at multi year low and the term structure is steepening (predictably in anticipation of another drama related to Debt Ceiling in coming months). Any pick up in VIX can halt this rally temporarily.
  • The rally which started from 31st Dec 2012 has met its initial target at 1468. If this rally is not extending, we are due for a pull back.
In any case so far it appears that bulls are still in charge. The impressive part about rally yesterday was that after hitting the support zone yesterday market put in a strong rally from the low without any significant pull back. This showed that early selling by bears was absorbed by bulls and they still remain firmly in charge. The day session range expanded on a bullish day.  

I would expect continuation of move up from yesterday. I would expect the low of the regular trading session in 1463-61 area which is the support consisting of previous highs. Expecting the usual 10-12 point day session range gives the upside target as 1471-75 area.

If after breaching 1461, the market is unable to rise above 1465, I would need to reject the bullish case temporarily and a move to 1452 can start.