2009-06-30

HOME WORKS (JULY 2009)

General Markets

Traders, the home work page for July is here. As usual, please click on “comments” to add your home work or read other comments. The “post your home work” link is updated to take you to July 2009 page now.

I had a wonderful time doing and following home work and it has really helped my analysis skills. I have also started posting my home work trades results online. The account was positive for the month of June!

As usual, you can subscribe to post comments via any blog reader software (like Google reader). Select the drop down option on the right hand. Also when you post comment, there is an option to subscribe to follow up comments via email.

Happy trading.

VS

78 comments:

  1. 1st July 2009
    --------------
    The new homework page for July is here. The "post your home work" link has been updated to take you to July page. Thank you very much for sharing your home work. June homework is here.

    Month of June closed for me with mixed success. I got beaten into some of my swing positions as I was out of synch with market on some days and sometimes I was plain unlucky where markets took my stops and went in my direction. However the HW book ended positive with $2,721 profit. So there is some merit in doing the dailyHomework.

    Holiday trading is upon us - markets are swining wildly!

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NQ - no trade except OMNI.
    ES - no trade
    ZB - filled, exited early as last fews days were not great!
    BP - Filled on breakout entry - but I was alarmed by the market action so exited pretty quickly.
    EC - no trade

    * ES TMR - Did not take as I was away but would have been good.
    * ZS TMR - +3

    NQ:
    ---
    Finally some bears showed up their faces - a bit late but still showing that they are around and may do some damage during holiday period. However usually holiday acts as reversals so if bears gain too much control on low volumes, there is a chance that the reversal will be equally strong and can put them to rest.

    I will attempt a cautious short.

    S : 1478-1482
    ST : 1495 MS 1488
    TG : 1448, sup 1458

    ES:
    ---
    IF ES breaks down from here, we would have start of H&S on top. ES has failed to break my sell zone (918-926) so we could see the downside targets of 867 in near future. I have taken certain positions today on swing basis with stop above 935. Cautious short again for day trades

    S : 917 - 919
    ST : 927 MS 921
    TG : 897 sup 904

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    Bonds could be breaking for upside. I see 118 area a support. But I will pass the HW trade on bonds and instead take a call on intra day market action.

    GC:GCZ9
    -------
    No trade during holiday volatility. 935 to watch for next short.

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Swing day down on CL!

    ZC:ZCz9
    -------
    Given sharp fall today, it could be worth taking TMR on Corn. Since I dont have stats on TMR on corn, I would try 2+runner/5 approach.

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    British Pounds jumped out from the range but fell sharply, indicating that there are lots of sellers there. A small short could be in order

    S : 1.658-1.6620
    ST : 1.6745 MS 1.6662
    TG : 1.6219, sup 1.6342

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    1.4150 sell zone worked well on EC and on Mac60 it is pointing down as well. Swing Day short as well in play. There could be more downside on EC now but I am stepping out during holidays.

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  2. July 1

    It's nice to have a fresh month. June was my first negative month this year. 3 Days turned it from a positive $1600 to a negative $1600. What caused this: Day 1)I traded my own rec and no omni rec. Day 2)I put an order in the wrong contract month and missed a monster EC trade, Day 3) I elected to pass on an omni trade (the only one this month I passed). On the bright side HW wasn't so bad, the last two weeks I have kept a spreadsheet and was down a little over $200 with a couple of stop outs. Not sure how the entire month went. I will get a better idea this month with my new spreadsheet.

    As for trading today I'm probably going to log on and just watch. today's action was not impressive and I was just itching to get out of that trade. My levels are to see if i can try to stay in tune with the markets.

    ES: Short 922-925 stop 936 target 904 res 918, 912

    NQ: Sell 1489 stop 1505 target 1448 res 1467

    EC: swing day, sell 1.4095 stop 1.4155 target 1.3970-80, res 1.4000, 1.4040

    Best Regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  3. Homework for Wednesday, July 1, 2009

    RESULT FOR TUESDAY’S PLAN:

    NQ: Triggered. PO not reached, but could have yielded about 6 p.
    ES: Triggered. PO not reached, but worth about 2 p!
    EC: Triggered. PO not reached, but worth about 7 p.
    NG: Stopped out!
    Soybeans: Triggered, and stopped out, had I taken that trade.

    I guess the homework was ok with a day like Tuesday. Too bad I was stuck in the worst of the trades.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports still struggling with the 200 dma, and this was the 7th day in June alone that it hit this level and reversed. When it hit the 48 dma it reversed up! Volume was higher today and another distribution day. Indicators beginning to reverse down. Also looks like it is forming a H&S bearish formation. Outlook: BEARISH

    Nasdaq pulled back some today on slightly higher volume than yesterday. Indicators up trend beginning to fade. Still above all important moving averages. It looks like the Nasdaq put in a mirror formation and possibly a reversal day. Still in the up trending channel where it hopefully will get support at the 1790 area. Outlook: BEARISH.

    S&P pulled back as well, but still above the 48 and 200 dma. Indicators beginning to reverse down. Support could be found in the 900 area. Outlook: BEARISH.

    Russell 2000 is above the 200 dma, and looks like it is forming a bull flag on a daily.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 130-172

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 64-12

    FUTURES
    ========
    USU9:

    NQU9: Mirror formation. Indicators still bullish. In the middle of an apex. The negative divergence from yesterday yielded a 27 p pullback. SELL 1478, STP 1495, PO 1448.

    ESU9: Still in the horizontal channel formation. The negative divergence from yesterday could have yielded about 18 p on the pullback. SELL 917, STP 927, PO 900.

    ECU9: Still holding the bottom of the rising channel. Indicators beginning to turn down a bit. BUY 1.3980, STP 1.3960, PO 1,4145.

    Natural Gas (Aug): Fell below the bottom of the apex. Indicators bearish. SELL 3.90, STP 4.00, PO 3.67.

    Soybeans (Aug): Indicators are bearish. SELL 1140, STP 1145, PO 1112.

    Good Trading
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  4. deeinthejungle1 Jul 2009, 06:08:00

    Hi, great to be back...

    Frustrated that this is my first homework day. The markets are undulating and we're stuck between either the formation of a H&S on /es or a range trade. I will be watching primarily tomorrow at this junction.

    /es s 922-925
    stp 933
    tgt 908

    /nq s 1489-92
    stp 1501
    tgt 1454 - 1465-63

    ReplyDelete
  5. Quin’s HW for Wednesday 1st July 2009

    Not much doing in the run up to the holiday….

    All I could find was a swing day with whisky chaser in the pound.

    Sell GBP 1.6590 – 1.6600 BX 1.6750 PO 1.6300

    ReplyDelete
  6. 2nd July 2009
    --------------
    Tomorrow is likely to be a muted day. I will not be trading anything other than TMRs.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NQ - Fill and Stop
    ES - Fill and Stop
    ZB - no trade
    BP - Missed by 34 pips. Direction worked.
    EC - no trade

    * ES NTMR - +2 on ADP
    * ES TMR - -5 (BAD luck - if only my stop was a tick below it would have worked great!)
    * ZS TMR - +3 and +1 on runner

    NQ:
    ---
    My short stopped but I think I placed the stop incorrectly. I should have given a bit more wiggle room for the holiday period. No trade for tomorrow.

    ES:
    ---
    I think the ES H&S is in making and next good move is short. I remain seller of rallies and I think after holiday the move will be down. So sideline now.

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    No trade during holiday. Looking like a buy and may be next pull down will signal Mac60 as well.

    GC:GCZ9
    -------
    Mirror Image on GOLD!

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Looking short.

    ZC:ZCz9
    -------
    Mac60 on Corn + Swing Day Long!

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    No trade during holiday.

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    I feel EC has tested the middle of Head on H&S. I remain bearish on EC until it takes out the head. EC is also looking like and inverted CUP AND HANDLE ! :-)

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  7. Homework for Thursday, July 2, 2009

    RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY’S PLAN:

    NQ: Triggered, and stopped out.
    ES: Triggered, and stopped out.
    EC: Never triggered, but direction correct.
    NG: Never triggered.
    Soybeans: Triggered, and stopped out.

    Overall it was a bad day, but TMR worked fine in both ES and Soybeans.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports crossed the 200 dma, but finally settled right at it. Low volume. Indicators are looking bullish.

    Nasdaq finished up on the day, but closed near the low. Low volume. Indicators are looking bullish.

    S&P behaved just like the Nasdaq.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 226-78

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 81-10

    FUTURES
    ========
    USU9:

    NQU9: Indicators pointing down a little. SELL 1485, STP 1497, PO 1457.

    ESU9: Indicators pointing down a little. SELL 921, STP 929, PO 905.

    ECU9: Forming to different channels right now. Indicators are looking bullish. BUY 1.4100, STP 1.3990, PO 1.4270.

    Natural Gas (Aug): BUY 3.65, STP 3.58, PO 3.85.

    Soybeans (Nov): BUY 1005, STP 980, PO 1035.


    Good Trading
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  8. deeinthejungle2 Jul 2009, 06:09:00

    July 2

    July 1st HMK (I did not take since my TMRs went so well)

    /ES -in, did not hit target, wd have had max 5-8 pts
    /NQ - in, did not hit target, wd have had max of 12-15 pts

    DeeTMR:
    /ES - 4 pts
    /NQ - 8 pts

    Indices -
    We're in no man's land. Bang in the middle of a possible H&S or range trade on /ES/ possible inverted H&S. I like to make projections when things are clearer :)

    /6e - testing the H&S

    /6b - ascending wedge. Needs to breakout.

    Have a great holiday everyone

    ReplyDelete
  9. Quin’s HW for Monday 6th July 2009

    Markets summary:

    With the US markets closed Friday both FTSE and Dax put in a lacklustre performance with narrow range on very low volume. Both also closed pretty much on the 200 DMA and key resistance levels.

    Weekly charts indicators still bearish and failure to break resistance levels.

    From the daily chart the NQ has moved down to test the parallel up channel. Holding the 1440 level is key on Monday. If this level holds and we move higher then Thursdays decline is confirmed as a holiday reversal, failure however will confirm the bearish look of the weekly charts and a fall to the 1300 level is on the cards.
    ES support level 884 – 881 again needs to hold for the bullish argument to remain intact.

    This makes it difficult to call trades for Monday until we see the action when the markets open this evening. Overall I’m expecting the holiday reversal to come into play and remain a buyer of dips unless the levels above are broken.

    At least there’s always TMR to keep things ticking over.

    ReplyDelete
  10. 6th July 2009
    --------------
    It was pleasure to meet Allan and Quin at Heathrow! Have a good vacation in Sweden Allan.

    I had no trades on 3rd July 2009.

    Overall I see markets going in the direction of my earlier blog post about expected correction and that is how I am getting positioned for my long term book.

    I might be wrong, but I do not expect a drastic post holiday reversal as usually expected.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NQ:
    ---
    Given the first day after holiday, I will be bit cautious as the markets can be bit jumpy. However I see 1443 as final support for NQ before it breaks towards 1430-1410 once again and possibly further down this time. 1480 is my line in sand before turning bull again on NQ on longer term basis.

    Key level I have in mind for coming days and weeks are 1430, 1423 as 24th June GAP fill and 1410 as lower buy zone. Failure to hold this levels would take the index further down to possibly test 50% retrace of March-June 2009 rally.

    For day trading basis:

    S : 1457.50 - 1462.5
    ST : 1490
    TG : 1414, sup 1429/1423

    ES:
    ---
    For me, H&S on ES is now formed and at best it is a tight trading range between 884 - 924. ES has also dropped nicely from two sell zonse (916-929 area) and in the first instances I see a move down towards 840-838 region in near term.

    S : 908 - 913
    ST : 929, MS 920
    TG : 865, sup 889.75, 879.50


    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    I have a conflicting signal on bonds. On Mac60 basis a short is called and on chart reading basis, there were a series of measured moves up. I will pass bonds before a direction emerges.

    GC:GCZ9
    -------
    Pass

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Pass

    ZC:ZCz9
    -------
    Pass

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    No trade on first day after holiday. Looking short though.

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    No trade on first day after holiday. Looking short though.

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  11. Homework for Monday, July 6, 2009

    FIRST OF ALL THANK YOU VERY MUCH, VS, FOR A NICE LUNCH, AND SOME GOOD BEER AT HEATHROW YESTERDAY, AND TO QUIN AND PKR FOR COMING TO MEET ME AS WELL. MUCH APPRECIATED, AND I HAD A GREAT TIME. SOME PHOTOS WERE TAKEN WHICH I WILL POST LASTER.


    INDICES
    =======
    Transports fell below the 200 and 48 dma. Volume was very low. Indicators are beginning to look bearish again. Outlook: BEARISH.

    Nasdaq gapping down and finish on the low of the day on slightly lower volume than the previous day. Still approx. 10% above the 200 dma, but less than 2% above the 48 dma. Indicators beginning to look bearish. Outlook: BEARISH.

    S&P fell below the 48 dma, and holding just above the 200 dma. Indicators looking bearish. Outlook: BEARISH.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 214-67

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 14-5

    FUTURES
    ========
    USU9: SELL 119^10-08, STP 120, PO 118^20.

    NQU9: Despite a down day on Thursday, a reversal day after the long holiday could be seen on Monday. A slight pullback to begin, and then a positive Macallan will hopefully set the tone for the day. BUY 1438-1435, STP 1428, PO 1470.

    ESU9: Same scenario as the NQ. BUY 889-886, STP 880, PO 910.

    ECU9: Bounced off the bottom of the apex, and finishing in the middle of the range. BUY 1.394-50, STP 1.3880, PO 1.4110.

    Natural Gas (Aug): SELL 3.70-3.67, STP 3.75, PO 3.50.

    Soybeans (Nov): BUY 1005-1000, STP 988, PO 1030.


    Good Trading
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  12. 7th July 2009
    --------------
    After being range bound (and spoiling the TMR trades) the markets did recover in late session. Many markets are showing positive Mac60 and therefore a bounce could be in offing.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NQ - No fill, Direction correct. 1423 sup held

    NQ:
    ---
    For bulls - Mac60 is trigerred. Late day recovery which is usually followed through in the market. 1430 buy zone held support.

    For bears - This is second test for 1430 buy zone which can result into failure. Trend appears to be in correction mode to major up trend. 1443 support was broken convinsingly.

    This market can be traded form both sides if one is nimble. And something has to give way before a clear trend emerges. I will actually try to do it

    Key level I have in mind for coming days and weeks are 1430, 1423 as 24th June GAP fill and 1410 as lower buy zone. Failure to hold this levels would take the index further down to possibly test 50% retrace of March-June 2009 rally.

    For day trading basis:

    B : 1440 (VS63) *** filled
    ST : 1422
    TG : 1459-1467

    Another one for add!

    B : 1432
    ST : 1427
    TG : 1445

    Also reversing into a sell at top

    S : 1459 - 1467
    ST : 1490, MS 1480
    TG : 1405, sup 1429/1423

    ES:
    ---
    For bulls - 200 dMA held. Markets turned around late day which can cause a gap open tomorrow. No news to drive the markets lower.

    For bears - H&S in formation. Momentum on the down side. Buy zone supports are crumbling and any rally can be ambush setup for bears to jump in.

    Considering I am playing NQ on long side, I will pass ES long. Instead I will focus on ambush short.

    Ideally I will watch the action near 905-910 area for a probe short. My conviction short would be

    S : 918-929
    ST : 943, MS 931
    TG : 865, sup 889.75, 879.50

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    I have a conflicting signal on bonds. On Mac60 basis a short is called and on chart reading basis, there were a series of measured moves up. I will pass bonds before a direction emerges.

    GC:GCQ9
    -------
    I would attempt a MAC60 Long on GC as below

    B : STOP 926
    ST: 920
    TG: 933.5

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Mac60 long setup on Crude!

    ZC:ZCz9
    -------
    Pass. Watching Mac60 long to trigger.

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    Pass. Looking short though.

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    S : 1.4038 - 1.4077
    ST: 1.4202
    TG: 1.3672

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass. Happy with TMR.

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  13. For July 7th:

    no trades from yesterday. I had HW and it did work on EC, and BE on ES, but I didn't post it because I wanted to see how markets reacted today.

    For trading today I am encouraged that the 200 dma held on ES and it finished the day strongly. It appears that it a little of a swing day to the upside, but indicators leave little to be desired thus my cautious stop on ES.

    ES Buy 889 stop 881 target 907, res 901
    NQ Buy 1429 stop 1409 target 1465, res 1447

    EC: indicators look weak and it does appear a H&S failure is in place. Sell 1.4020 stop 1.4090 target 1.3835 with profit objective and res 1.3888.

    best regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  14. Homework for Tuesday, July 7, 2009

    I am in vacation mode, and homework and follow up on homework will have to suffer a little during this time.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports fell below the 200 and 48 dma, but reversed up from below the bottom of the apex.

    Nasdaq finished at the 48 dma after having dipped below.

    S&P bounced off the 200 dma, and finished at the high of day.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 120-186

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 35-30

    FUTURES
    ========
    NQU9: Dipped below 48 dma, but finished above. BUY 1433, STP 1422, PO 1500.

    ESU9: Bounced off 200 dma with reversal to finish at high of day. It is in the bottom of the channel it has been in for the past 2 months. BUY 889. STP 880, PO 905.

    Good Trading
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  15. Quin’s HW for Wednesday 8th July 2009

    Markets summary:

    FTSE and Dax both now below the 200 DMA, indicators bearish.

    Of the US indices SPX closed below the 200 DMA for the 1st time in 9 days. Now only the NDX is above. Indicators bearish on all.

    ES settled right on the 200 DMA, NQ still far above but has now closed below the 50 DMA for the 1st time since mid March. Indicators bearish.

    ESU9 Sell 887 - 889 BX 900 PO 870
    NQU9 Sell 1423 - 1428 BX 1450 PO 1395
    ZU9 Sell 4170 - 4175 BX 4215 PO 4100

    ReplyDelete
  16. For July 8th

    results from yesterday, HW on ES was in line with OMNI and was stopped out. EC did work up to 100 pips. For result purposes, I usually trade 2 contracts on EC and take one off at 40 pips then set the stop on the other one to BE and let it run. So this trade would have yielded me 100 pips for one and 40 for the other.

    For today I think the long side has been exhausted and I am back on the sellers end. ES closed below 200DMA with indicators a little mixed to bearish so I have to be a seller for the day.

    ES: sell 889-887 stop 899, target 869 res 875-877
    NQ: sell 1422 stop 1442 with a target of 1390

    EC: failure at the h&s along with what looks like a start of a new parallel channel to the downside indicates to me it is still in a seller of rally mode. Indicators look mixed to bearish and it also looks like it's a swing day.
    Sell 1.3990 to 1.4002 stop 1.4056 target 1.3835 with P.O. and exit at 1.3890.

    best regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  17. 8th July 2009
    --------------
    Finally the markets moved in the direction I have been expecting for some time. Oscar also talked about V shaped bottoms which is also what I am expecting in the first instance as long as March 2009 lows can be kept. There is some key support in current areas but I believe the direction is down for few days.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Finally, my JULY P&L on HW reached positive zone. I hope I can keep it that way.

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NQ - Longs filled and stopped. Shorts did not fill. Direction was correct!
    ES - no fill
    GC - filled, exit on TL stop as target narrowly missed.
    EC - Filled up to 1.4048, exit near exit on 50%, rest with BE stop.

    NTMR : No trade
    TMR : +3.5, no runner as I was away but could have produced good results.
    zSTMR: No trade for me but those who took it could have ridden it for 48 points.

    NQ:
    ---
    Key buy zone level of 1410 was breached today. So the trend is now firmly down. I will now look for 1362 - 1280 levels in near future.

    S : 1423.50 - 1429
    ST : 1448, MS 1439
    TG : 1383, sup 1389

    ES:
    ---
    200 dMA was breached and H&S neck line was traded which acted as support (875.25). ES has further room to drop without disrupting the V bottom. I see 822-790 as next support zone with 810 as my targets.

    Probe short at 881 with stop above 893

    S : 886-889
    ST : 897, MS 893
    TG : 867, sup 872

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    Bonds still are conflicting setup for me but broader markets calls for higher bonds for somedays. 118 is key area for me which if breached would make me look at short side on bonds for some time. For the time being I am long:

    B : 118'290-118'240
    ST : 118, MS 118'160
    TG : 120'160, res 120

    GC:GCQ9
    -------
    Pass

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Pass. Breached 200 dMA. Watch Mac60.

    ZC:ZCz9
    -------
    Pass.

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    Pass. Sell rallies.

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    Swing day short!

    S : 1.3977-1.3998
    ST: 1.4051
    TG: 1.3661 sup 1.3810

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass. Happy with TMR.

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  18. Homework for Wednesday, July 8, 2009

    ES and NQ: Had I taken my hw the first time around yesterday it would have been good!

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports fell 3.2% on below than average volume, but slightly higher than the previous day giving another distribution day. It is now 4.6% below the 48 dma and even more below the important 200 dma. Bearish Indicators, but we have positive Mac60!

    Nasdaq fell 2.3% on below than average volume, but volume was still higher than the previous 5-6 days. It is now below its 48 dma, but still almost 7% above the 200 dma. It fell below the low of 10 trading days ago, and has not been this low since the end of May. Indicators are very bearish. Unfortunately Mac60 is showing convergence. Rebound could still occur though.

    S&P fell 2% and is now sitting below both the 48 and the 200 dma. This index has not been this low since Mid-May. This looks like an area where some support should come in. We have positive Mac60 here, so an upward bounce should be expected.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 71-235

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 40-25

    FUTURES
    ========
    NQU9: Fell below the 48 dma, but still more than 100 p above the 200 dma. Support should come in here otherwise next support comes in around the 1340 area. I see positive Mac60. BUY 1400-1396, STP 1390, PO 1425.

    ESU9: Sitting on its 200 dma. Support could be expected in this area. I see positive Mac60. BUY 875-870, STP 865, PO 892.

    Good Trading
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  19. 9th July 2009
    --------------
    Markets broke lower lows today but it appears that some support is coming on its way, at least temporarily. Also some of the swing short targets were met as well. So there can be some short covering push up. Mac30/60 are also appearing in the direction supporting a short covering as well as swing day! The direction still remains bearish though.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------
    I closed my BE EC runner today on whiff of Mac60. Bit early though it would seem.

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NQ - No fill
    ES - no fill on main trade, probe was filled. Target met.
    ZB - no fill, direction correct, TG met.
    EC - No fill (30 pip miss), direction correct, sup held.

    NTMR : No trade. Watched CL NTMR. Looks interesting. Will try next time.

    TMR : -5 on long. Reversed on short signal. +3.5 and runner gave +11.5
    zSTMR: +4 and small change on runner
    ZBTMR: +10/32 and runner gave 23/32 (early exit - the potential was 1 9/32)

    NQ:
    ---
    There is technically a swing day in play so if markets drop in the early part, it can be played on long side too. However the trend is now firmly down. I will now look for 1362 - 1280 levels in near future. MAC60 is long and that is a danger for the short.

    S : 1419 - 1425
    ST : 1448, MS 1439
    TG : 1360, sup 1380

    ES:
    ---
    Mac60 is long and danger for the short. However 200 dMA broken and neck line broken. The short seems a better bet and selling rallies could be the game. I see 822-790 as next support zone with 810 as my targets.

    S : 881-885
    ST : 898, MS 888
    TG : 845 sup 857.5


    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    Bonds are hitting a swing sell zone. Also most of the long targets for short term are met. So I will step out of bonds for sometime and focus on Bonds TMR instead. I will also be watching for any Mac60 signal to trigger a short in bonds.

    GC:GCQ9
    -------
    Pass

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Pass

    ZC:ZCz9
    -------
    Pass.

    BP: 6BU9
    --------

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    pass

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass. Happy with TMR.

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  20. For Thursday June 9th

    Yesterday's results didn't get filled on anything but direction was correct and targets were hit. Close but no cigar.

    For today I have to continue with the seller of rally mode, we closed below 200MA for the 2nd day in a row indicators still look bearish and to me it looks like yesterday was the first real breakout from the head and shoulders going through the neckline setting up a retracement to a H&S projected 822 area.

    ES: Sell 880-883 stop 893 target 859 res 869
    NQ: Sell 1418-1422 stop 1439 target 1378 res 1390

    EC: downward parallel channel in play H&S failure and bearish indicators I am a seller of rallies.

    EC: Sell 1.3957 stop 1.4055 target 1.3736 res 1.3893, 1.3838.

    Best regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  21. deeinthejungle9 Jul 2009, 05:46:00

    For Thursday,

    Wednesday: TMR ES did not trigger in either direction, NQ did but i didn't take it, I would have stopped out. 2nd time would have worked like a charm.

    Am watching STMR and WTMR, and am curious about the bonds and NTMR.

    Thur: I too have adopted a seller of rallies stance. I am expecting a pop tomorrow for short covering, since we hit strong support area in the 869 area. The NQ has dropped 5 days in a row, which also makes me a little cautious.
    The fact DJTA, DJIA have failed 200 DMA and now the ES makes me bearish. The h&s too on most indices, though i don't know enough to know at what point we should expect a retest of the middle of the head. I need to do more research on H&S pattern.
    On the other hand, the ES and NQ have been faithfully following a parallel downwards channel, this would also lean me towards a pop tomorrow. Also it will tell me if they intend to continue to follow the channel or not.

    ES: S 885-888 stop 896 tgt 869
    NQ: S 1430-36 stop 1446 tgt 1401

    EC - bearish stance on euro. looks like its already tested the middle of the head and failed.

    S 1.3977 ish stop:1.4055 tgt 1.374-5 - 1.383

    Have Fun Trading!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Quin’s HW for Thursday 9th July 2009

    Wednesday review: Right idea, no fills. I nibbled short ES which worked out well.

    Markets summary:

    FTSE and Dax both very bearish.

    All of the US indices sold off but held key support levels.

    I remain a seller of rallies for today but with caution as a bounce may occur.

    ESU9 Sell 884 - 886 BX 894 PO 865
    NQU9 Sell 1422 - 1426 BX 1450 PO 1392
    ZU9 Sell 4150 - 4155 BX 4180 PO 4070

    ReplyDelete
  23. Homework for Thursday, July 9, 2009

    RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY’S PLAN:

    NQ: Triggered, but did not reach PO.
    ES: Triggered, but did not reach PO. It was one tick from being stopped out.

    Happy that both would have worked out had I taken them, since it was in opposition to some of the better traders!

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports did not go anywhere on higher than average volume, but reversed higher and finished near the high. Still below 200 and 48 dma.

    Nasdaq same scenario as the Transports, but still above the important 200 dma.

    S&P lost a couple of points, but managed a reversal too. Still below the 48 and 200 dma.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 103-203

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 18-51 (Bearish signal!)


    FUTURES
    ========

    ESU9: BUY 874, STP 865, PO 892

    Good Trading
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  24. 10th July 2009
    --------------
    It was quite a bad day on TMR front as none of the set up worked. The markets bounced as expected. Now they are in a key sell zone. I will trade with the current trend (bearish) for tomorrow.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NQ - filled 1419/1421 - exit on close
    ES - filled 881/883/884 (on second OMNI call), exit on OMNI targets.
    ZB - no trade
    EC - no trade

    NTMR : +2 as usual

    TMR : -5 on short, -5 on long
    zSTMR: -5
    ZBTMR: -10/32 short -10/32 on second short. Third should would have worked for 22/32 but by that time it was too bad day to take any more TMRs.

    What a day for TMR. All reds

    NQ:
    ---
    Today Mac60 long worked well but that landed the market right into the sell zone. So those holding longs from prev day close might have made good money selling into the sell zone. Now is the bettle time for next leg. 1419-25 still remains first test zone for shorts. If a second day up rule is in making, we can even test 1434 for short.

    I will like to watch both sides before taking conviction trades.

    for short

    S : 1419 - 1425 - 1434
    ST : 1448, MS 1439
    TG : 1360, sup 1380

    There is a case for longs if 1406/03 holds a support

    B : 1406-03
    ST : 1401
    TG : 1427/1439

    As of now I am bent on short but it could very well prove good to take the long first reversing into a short later.

    ES:
    ---
    The close is back above 200 dMA. But rest of the story is practically same as NQ. The upside has met resistence in the sell zone after positive MAC60. Now MAC60 is negative too. All I can think is that TMR would be good tomorrow as the pressure is rising on both sides (bull and bear). If 872 hold, there is a inverted H&S in making which has potential to push up to 896 which is also a good sell zone.

    My HW remains the same but I am bit cautious about this short. A long TMR for example will make me go out of this trade or cancel it.

    S : 881-885
    ST : 898, MS 888
    TG : 845 sup 857.5

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    I see 119-11 to 118-28 as buy zone and 120-08 to 120-16 as short zone. Whichever one breaks first will determine the direction of next move. Being Friday, I will look only for ZBTMR and hope it is a good one.

    GC:GCQ9
    -------
    Pass

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Below 200 dMA

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    GBP is in a good sell zone until 1.6440. I have taken some shorts at 1.6350 with 1.6550 stop in my swing book and I will look to sell further rallies. I will watch for 1.6180-30 area for support and if that is breached, it will have a long way down!

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    I see EUR as MacD short with a downside target of 1.3600. I will look to sell rallies up to 1.4202.

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass. Happy with TMR though not today.

    Other notes:
    ------------
    CT is setting for a tripple top breakout!

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  25. AO's HW,

    ES and NQ are bearish, both are on top of a down channel, can make or break. Stochastic is pointing down but near a rebounce zone.

    ES short play: sell 883-6, stop 892, PO 850, support 873, 862

    ES long play: buy:865-8 stop 855, PO 884

    6E short: 1.6410, stop 1.6546, PO 1.6129

    ZS Long:907-909, stop 899, PO 943,

    First time posting HW, most likely will not trade HW, see if I am in the right track. One step at a time.

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  26. Quin’s HW for Friday 10th July 2009

    Thursday review:

    ES: Filled, PO not reached (good for 10 points)
    NQ: No fill
    Z: Filled, PO not reached (good for 40 points)

    Unfortunately I was stuck in a bonds trade and unwilling to take these trades at the same time.

    Markets summary:

    I can’t find good levels to get short, missed this boat when it sailed yesterday so we’ll just see what develops during the day.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Homework for Friday, July 10, 2009

    RESULT FOR THURSDAY’S PLAN:

    ES: Triggered, and would have been good for 10 p.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports rose 0.5% on average volume. Still below 48 and 200 dma. Still in sideways channel with 2988 bottom and 3415 top. A few of the indicators beginning to turn up. Still bearish.

    Nasdaq rose 0.3% on below average volume. Still above 200 dma, but below 48. A few indicators beginning to look up. Still bearish.

    S&P rose 0.35% and finished a point above its 200 dma, but still below the 48. Still bearish.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 187-118

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 24-42

    FUTURES
    ========

    ESU9: SELL 879, STP 885, PO 862.

    Good Trading
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  28. Quin’s HW for Monday 13th July 2009

    Friday review:

    No HW trades posted but the overnight session brought a sell off and created the opportunity to short the early morning rally.

    Markets summary:

    As stated the last 2 weekends the indicators on the indices weekly charts have been forewarning of a correction. This is now playing out and daily charts are now forming parallel down channels and a much larger inverted head and shoulders. This all gives me an expectation of sideways to downward movement for the rest of the summer doldrums.



    For Monday the only bullish signs are a slight upturn in indicators on the daily NDX and NQU9 charts and ESU9 is clinging on to the falling 200 DMA. With this in mind I will be batting for both sides and attempting to play the range from whichever way it moves first.

    ES:
    either
    ESU9 Sell 882 - 885 BX 894 PO 866
    or
    ESU9 Buy 866 - 863 SX 856 PO 882

    NQ:
    either
    NQU9 Sell 1429 - 1434 BX 1445 PO 1402
    or
    NQU9 Buy 1402 - 1397 SX 1389 PO 1429

    Z:
    either
    ZU9 Sell 4150 - 4160 BX 4190 PO 4080
    or
    ZU9 Buy 4080 - 4070 SX 4040 PO 4150

    ReplyDelete
  29. Homework for Monday, July 13, 2009

    RESULT FOR FRIDAY’S PLAN:

    ES: Triggered, and would have been good for about 10 p again.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports finished 1% higher on low volume. Still under 48 and 200 dma. Looking bearish.

    Nasdaq has had 3 up days in a row. Low volume. Still below 48 dma, but above the 200 dma. Looking bearish.

    S&P finished 0.4% lower on low volume. Still below 48 dma, but finished right at its 200 dma. Looking bearish.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 143-158

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 26-54

    FUTURES
    ========

    ESU9: SELL 877, STP 885, PO 860
    NQU9: SELL 1422, STP 1430, PO 1395

    ECU9: SELL 1.3987, STP 1.4035, PO 1.3820
    ECU9: BUY 1.3880, STP 1.3850, PO 1.4030

    Good Trading
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  30. 13th July 2009
    --------------
    This is probably my last HW before I proceed on my holiday to the USA. I will be actively taking a break from trading and I have reduced most of my positions to minimum levels of to a point where stops wont hurt me badly. I will access chats/blog whenever I can to keep in touch with great people like you. So please donot consider silence from my end as sign of dis-interest from my side and please continue the good practise we all have adopted. I will join the active trading after 26th July 2009.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NQ - With some luck I was able to play the market on both sides. Especially lucky as I had to leave for airport in the evening so I closed my shorts at good time.

    ES - No fill
    ZB - No Trade
    EC - No Trade

    CT - Shot up as expected. Still good to buy on dips.

    NTMR : would have been good for nearly 7 pt but did not take the trade as the action after news was muted.

    TMR : +3 on short
    zSTMR: +4 on short + BE runer. +4 on long (no runner as I was not there to watch the trade - would have been good for +13)

    ZBTMR: +10/32 short + BE runner. +10/32 on Long + BE runner.


    NQ:
    ---
    NQ is still stronger of the indices set and looks like if there is that "V" shaped bottom (i.e. current down move is a correction of March - June 2009 rally rather than next leg down in bear market) then I feel the next rally will be driven by NQ. So I would remain cautious on shorting NQ aggressively. 1406-03 area acted as good support and may give a bounce early on next week (or on Monday). For me 1434-1444 area remains next test area for shorts if they have fire power left to push it down further.

    for short

    S : 1427 probe, 1434 - 1444
    ST : 1460, MS 1456
    TG : 1360, sup 1380

    There is a case for longs if 1406/03 holds a support. It did hold on Friday so worth a try again with small position.

    B : 1410-1406
    ST : 1400
    TG : 1427/1439

    The best play can be long in pre market and a turn around from 1427/34 area for short.

    ES:
    ---
    ES is much better down side story. Inverted H&S did not materialise and there are series of measured moves on downside which are holding the ES under pressure.

    My HW remains the same.

    S : probe 878, 881-885
    ST : 898, MS 888
    TG : 845 - 810 sup 857.5


    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    Mirror Image on ZB! Also general setup appears for a long and 200 dMA (122'20) looks within sight. 121 level remains a resistence and needs to be broken for upside which can go all the way to 125-128 region. Fundamentally T-BONDs are in bubble and in long term they would provide a very good short. But good time for that short would come later.

    ZB TMR is turning out a good way to play bonds but for long:

    B : 120'060 - 120
    ST : 119'060 MS 119'160
    TG : 122'030, res 121'100

    GC:GCQ9
    -------
    Weekly Gold chart has every thing for a technical analyst to look for, double tops, inverted H&S in making, MacW, Apex forming etc. It could be worthwhile to leave GC alone for sometime till next panic emerges in the world. A move down to 200 dMA could be in line if USD continues to strengthen.

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Compared to that, Crude Oil weekly chart is much more clear - double top, 200 wMA top and crash! CL is now nearing some support area and may get some bounce. I am staying out of this market while on holiday.


    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    1.6180 - 1.6130 support area was not breached so far and that can create a bounce in GBP. I am still holding my short and would add between 1.6350 - 1.6440 area.

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    I see EUR as MacD short with a downside target of 1.3600. I will look to sell rallies up to 1.4202.

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass. Happy with TMR.

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  31. For July 13th

    Results from Friday: even though I didn't post them, I did have a buy at 871 level which held well and went up to 880 early in morning and easy mid 870's later in the day.

    For today I have to say follow the leaders. I looked at ES and YM they both look to me as bearish as can be. When I look at NQ and TRAN I'm not so sure. Some indicators are exhausted and turning with trend lines holding and TRAN bouncing off of the 89 MA a couple of sessions ago. I like the long side after a test to see if it holds, no rushing into the long and no need to be a hero holding for massive points, but if it holds I could see myself getting in for 6-8 pts. I also can see myself getting short for the same profit targets of 6-8pts. Short levels are roughly the same zone as VS's.

    ES: buy 869-871 stop 861 target 6-8 pts. Short zone 881-884 stop 892 target 6-8 pts.

    NQ: buy 1405-1403 stop 1386 target 1438

    ZB: buy 119^24-119^20 stop 119^03 target 120^26 res and profit objective 120^04

    Have a fun vacation VS and we'll see you when you get back.

    Regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  32. Practice makes perfect. Keeping doing HW until I really "Click" in.

    computer glitches didn't get in ZS TMR, HW on ZS would be stopped out.

    ES near lower down channel, struggling with 200 sma.
    Long Play: Buy 862+-, Stop: 853, PO 890
    Short Play: Sell 883+-, Stop: 890+ PO 970

    ZB range play within upchannel bullish, Stochastic in overbought zone.

    Long Play: Buy 119^080+-, Stop 180^180, PO 121^130

    GBP major range trade 1.6810-1.6010, but bearish movements,

    Short Play: Sell 1.6295 stop 1.6390, PO 1,6012

    EC, wedge formation, lower high, higher low, watching for break out from 1.4030 for bull or 1.3880 for bear.

    I hv done my HW before going on VS's blog, thanks for this setup VS, happy vacation.

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  33. 14th July 2009
    --------------
    I have only updated the webpage for my HW results. Active HW after I return.

    It was mainly a day of two halves. In the pre-market my NQ Long, NQ Probe short and ES prove/881 short levels were filled. I also exited NQ long as I wanted a net short position! In early morning session I took profits on the shorts as market started showing strengths. Later on due to my travel chores I removed most of orders (ZB/NQ) but left remaining ES shorts in - which were duly filled and I got out before market close at some loss. For a feather in my cap, my stop was missed by 1 tick!

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NQ - Longs filled 1422 exit after probe short filled, Short probe filled exit 1405

    ES - Filled 878/881 in round I closed for profit. 883/885 in round II closed at loss.
    ZB - Would have filled and would have produced a loss of about 10/32 - 4/32 at close.
    EC - No Trade

    NTMR : no trade

    TMR : +3.25 on short + BE runner. +2 on long (and no runner) - would have produced 16.25 on runner !&#@@!^&
    - notes - do not bring HW and long term bias to TMR trades. Not even OMNI bias.

    zSTMR: +3.5 on short + BE runer.

    ZBTMR: Stop -10/32 on long. +10/32 on short + 15/32 on runner.

    NQ:
    ---
    - after vacation

    ES:
    ---
    - ES is in ambush short zone so watch out. After vacation.

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    - after vacation

    GC:GCQ9
    -------
    - after vacation

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    - after vacation

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    - after vacation

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    - after vacation

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass. Happy with TMR.

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  34. For Tuesday July 14th

    Results: ES worked well, but I would have only taken 6-8 pts per HW, short worked as well and HW actually helped me exit all Omni contracts when NQ was at my buy level of 1405. Go HW :)

    NQ: filled and hit P.O.
    ZB didn't fill

    For today I see a mirror image setting up and believe with the close of NQ back over 50 DMA and indicators all pointing north again, I am a buyer of dips. ES also bounced right off of 89 MA and went straight up.

    ES: B 885-882 ST 871 T 901-904 Res/P.O. 996-998
    NQ: B 1424-1422 ST 1403 T 1445
    ZB: S 120^17-120^20 ST 121^13 T 119^16

    Regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  35. I believe the purpose of HW is to looking over a few mkts to hv more market sense.

    ES bounce finally came, and now @ 50% retracement of recent move.

    Short play: Sell 899-902, stop 913+, PO 882
    Long Play: Buy 880-878, stop 864-, PO 906

    NQ possible testing top of a down channel,
    Long Play: 1416-20, stop 1400-, PO 1468

    ZB, near bottom of a up channel, flat top!
    Short Play: Sell 121^140 stop 122^220, PO 118^180

    EC Wedge formation waiting for break out, 1.4016+ for Bull, 1.3910- for Bear.

    GBP break out from minor down trend maybe?
    Long Play: Buy 1.6125+- stop 1.6002+-, PO 1.6350

    ZS Bear Flag? sell stop 892^2 use 12 pt stop PO 836

    ReplyDelete
  36. Quin’s HW for Tuesday 14th July 2009

    Monday review:

    Trades were called in both directions with the stated intention of taking which ever hit 1st; it turned out to be the long side

    ES: Filled and PO reached
    NQ: No fill missed by 1 pt
    Z: Filled and PO reached


    Markets summary:

    Yesterdays up move has turned indicators upward, however we are now at support levels. So the possible scenarios for today are a continuation move up to the top of the parallel channel, failure right here, or most likely in my opinion a consolidation day where nothing happens.

    ES:

    ESU9 Sell 903 - 905 BX 913 PO 887

    NQ:

    Looking more bullish than ES so no trade.

    Z:

    ZU9 Sell 4225 - 4235 BX 4260 PO 4450

    ReplyDelete
  37. Homework for Tuesday, July 14, 2009

    RESULT FOR MONDAY’S PLAN:

    ES: Triggered and stopped out.
    NQ: Triggered and stopped out.
    EC: Triggered short, not stopped out, and PO not reached.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports finished 1% higher for second day in a row on average volume. Still under 48 and 200 dma. Indicators turning more bullish.

    Nasdaq has had 4 up days in a row. Low volume. Settled just above the 48 dma, and also above the 200 dma. Indicators turning more bullish.

    S&P finished up strong by 2.5%. Still below the 48 dma, but now well above its 200 dma. Indicators turning more bullish.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 246-59

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 46-34

    FUTURES
    ========

    ESU9: BUY 882, STP 865, PO 900.


    Vive La France!
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  38. Wednesday will do about 1600km driving, will not trade.

    ES break out of down channel, bullish.
    Long Play: Buy 897-5, stop 886, PO 928
    Probe short near 928

    NQ testing top of down channel
    Long play: Buy 1438-42, stop 1414, PO 1496, Res 1484

    ZB Break down from up channel,
    Short Play: Sell 119^235 stop 120^130, PO 117^227 Res 118^040

    EC tight wedge formation,
    Bull buy stop 1.3995 PO 1.4200 Res 1.4133
    Bear sell stop 1.3926 PO 1.3736

    GBP @ 50% retracement of current down move.
    Short play: Sell 1.6446, stop 1.6588, PO 1.6128

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  39. For July 15th

    Results: no trades triggered yesterday but direction was correct on ES, NQ, ZB

    For today I see a continuation of the mirror setup and indicators still pointing up so I have to go with them. I see where everyone is coming from with the short Idea especially with the downward channel setting up on both NQ and ES, thus will be cautious at those levels.

    ES B 898-901 S 889 T 912
    NQ B 1448 S 1430 T 1482 Res 1468

    The gap up has really put me in a spin, not sure how to deal with it, so I will take lots of notes so I can learn moving forward. Based on what I see in the charts we cover the gap then continue upward. let's see how it goes.

    Regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  40. deeinthejungle15 Jul 2009, 05:36:00

    Hello,

    /ES and /NQ at the top of their parallel downward channels, but gap up may indicate a break through the channel.

    /ES: watching the 908 area. If we hold we may shoot up to 913-915- 919 area, for gap fill. If we break down, may move to 902-899 area. What to do? I will be watching these areas for TMR.
    BUY: 902-904 (Stop 892)
    TGT: 913-919

    /NQ:
    Buy 1450 (stop 1440)
    TGT: 1485

    /EC: will watch what /ES will do.

    Great trading everyone,

    Diana

    ReplyDelete
  41. Homework for Wednesday, July 15, 2009

    RESULT FOR TUESDAY’S PLAN:

    ES: Did not trigger. Direction correct.

    More importantly …. Dee, I have had my first daim now!

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports finished higher for the 3rd day in a row on a little above average volume. Still under 48 and 200 dma. Indicators turning more bullish.

    Nasdaq finished higher for the 5th day in a row. Still low volume. Above the 48 dma, and the 200 dma. Indicators turning more bullish.

    S&P finished up for the 2nd in a row. Still below the 48 dma, but the 200 dma. Indicators turning more bullish.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 209-98

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 59-18

    FUTURES
    ========

    ESU9: BUY 899, STP 890, PO 917.
    ECU9: BUY 1.3960, STP 1.3910, PO 1.4100.


    Vive la Suede!
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  42. Quin’s HW for Wednesday 14th July 2009

    Tuesday review:

    ES: Filled, PO not reached (MFE 10.50)
    NQ: No trade
    Z: Filled, PO not reached (MFE 59.0)


    Markets summary:

    As expected yesterdays action was muted after the gig up day. The ES and NQ gapped up on the 16:30 reopen on earning news. ES is now at the top of the down channel and in the major ambush zone. NQ has a little further to the top of the channel and is slightly above the ambush. This looks to be a simple short but indicators suggest there may be a little more upside to come.


    ES:
    ESU9 Sell 910 - 912 BX 918 PO 901

    NQ:
    NQU9 Sell 1480 – 1485 BX 1500 PO 1450

    Z:
    No trade

    ReplyDelete
  43. deeinthejungle16 Jul 2009, 05:46:00

    Jly 16

    After today's momentous day, this is what I'm thinking: do we hold at these levels and go on to test the head? Do we fill the gap back to 902.50?

    Key levels to watch. 921.75 is the 50% retrace of today's move. Once below 919.50, the trend is decidedly bearish.

    I will watch where we go overnight.
    If we break 919s: B 902 (stop 892) T 919

    If we hold: B921-923 (stop 911) T 930-942

    I'm watching other markets in relation to ES.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Quin’s HW for Thursday 16th July 2009

    Wednesday review:

    ES: Filled, and stopped out
    NQ: Filled, missed being stopped out by 0.50 (but not good)
    Z: No trade


    Markets summary:

    All indices broke their down channels and key resistance levels. We are now all set for the test of the head of the H&S formation. The cautious (and correct) approach should be to wait and see if the fails or breaks out before trading. I’m going to call short trades anticipating a failure on the first test but don’t intend to actually trade them.

    ES:
    ESU9 Sell 936 - 939 BX 954 PO 920

    NQ:
    NQU9 Sell 1511 – 1517 BX 1530 PO 1485

    Z:
    No trade as no H&S formation


    On a side note, a missing persons report has been filed with the Swedish authorities and a full search of the countries golf courses will be started at first light. We all hope for Allan’s safe return.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Did Allan took TMR with him to vacation? TMR not the same without Allan & VS.

    No HW on Thursday, some trades on Wed's HW were good. A broken analog clock can be right twice a day.

    ES 12 pts + to high recent high, seems overbought
    Short play sell 938-940, stop 953+ PO 901, support 908

    NQ new recent high react, in NO MAN's Land ( what about Dee and her DeeTMR?)

    ZB broke out of 4 days down trend line, with support,
    Long Play: Buy 116^290+-, stop 116^090, PO 119^080, resist 118^200

    EC broke out wedge formation, watching

    GBP still in 50%-61.8% ambush short zone, may test top channel, watching

    ZS, Bear Flag formation + Double Bottom? watching who wins.


    Don't want to lose big in summer dog fight. Strong defensive in money management.

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  46. Quin’s HW for Friday 17th July 2009

    Thursday review:

    Trades did not reach levels until late in the day so I would not have shorted new highs at that time but for the record:

    ES: Filled, and closed flat
    NQ: Filled, and closed flat
    Z: No trade


    Markets summary:

    The test of the head of the H&S formation occurred yesterday but gave no real indication of success or failure. Looking at the overnight session (it’s 2am EST now) we are still in the sell zones from yesterdays trades and they have not played out yet, Mac 60 sell signals are in place so I’m just going to repeat yesterdays numbers.

    ES:
    ESU9 Sell 936 - 939 BX 954 PO 920

    NQ:
    NQU9 Sell 1511 – 1517 BX 1530 PO 1485

    Z:
    No trade as no H&S formation

    ReplyDelete
  47. Homework for Friday, July 17, 2009

    RESULT FOR THURSDAY’S PLAN:

    N/A.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports above both the 48 and 200 dma. Indicators bullish. Nearing top of channel with plenty of resistance.

    Nasdaq above both moving averages as well. Indicators are bullish.

    S&P is above both moving averages too. Indicators are bullish.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 211-92

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 97-23

    FUTURES
    ========
    BUY 930-932, STP 920, PO 950.

    Good Trading.
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  48. Homework for Monday, July 20, 2009

    RESULT FOR FRIDAY’S PLAN:

    ES: Triggered and was good for 6-8 p.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports are above both the 48 and the 200 dma. The 7-day winning streak came to an end. Indicators are very strong, but could be beginning to turn down. BULLISH.

    Nasdaq has had 8 winning days in a row. It is above both the 48 and the 200 dma. Indicators looking strong, but could be turning down as well. The top of its channel is still about 11% higher than current price level. BULLISH.

    S&P had 4 winning days before Friday’s small loss. Indicators are strong, but beginning to turn down. It is still above both the 48 and 200 dma. Potential resistance up at the 950 level. BULLISH.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 150-153

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 117-23

    FUTURES
    ========
    ES: BUY 932-934, STP 922, PO 950.
    NQ: BUY 1516-1518, STP 1500, PO 1545.
    EC: BUY 1.4100-1.4110, STP 1.4060, PO 1.4250.

    Good Trading.
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  49. Quin’s HW for Monday 20th July 2009

    Friday review:

    ES: Filled, and closed flat, (level held well for scalping MFE 8.00)
    NQ: Filled, and closed 1.00 from stop (MFE 5.25)
    Z: No trade


    Markets summary:

    The test of the head of the H&S formation continues and is yet to be resolved. Although NQ has settled above the head I will wait for this to happen for 3 days before I become a buyer of dips again. ES spent all day testing the meat of the head and put in a narrow range inside day, often a reversal pattern.

    Stepping back to look at the bigger picture indicators and turned up on the weekly charts but approaching overbought conditions on the daily charts. The bottoming pattern on the S&P 500 index, the large inverted head and shoulders with V bottom needs to be completed by filling in the right shoulder and a possible test of the head to come, this is the most convincing argument for more downside to come next week.

    I am compelled to keep selling into this until proven wrong.

    ES:
    ESU9 Sell 943 - 946 BX 954 PO 928

    NQ:
    No trade (don’t sell the most bullish of the 3)

    Z:
    ZU9 Sell 4405 - 4415 BX 4445 PO 4325

    Due to the current light volume being expected to continue during the rest of the summer doldrums I will be scalping these trades for 3- 5 ES points (or equivalent) and just holding a small runner looking for the PO.

    ReplyDelete
  50. HW results: ES good for 5 pts, ZB a stopped out, not keen to trade in next OptionX!

    ES bullish, indicators overbought?
    Long play; buy 922 stop 910 PO 941
    Short Play Short 944 stop 953 PO 928

    NQ daily break out from down channel, but weekly in 50% Ambush swing short zone.

    Probe short 1550+
    long play: buy 1510 stop 1486 PO 1550

    ZB @ ambush buy zone,
    buy 115^200 stop 114^310 PO 117^030

    EC down channel resistance,
    Short 1.4172 stop 1.4250 PO 1.4020

    GBP
    Long 1.6260 stop 1.6090 PO 1.6550

    ZS double bottom support
    Long 902 stop 888 PO 960 resist 937

    Need to build up risk capital reserves.

    Cheers,


    AO

    ReplyDelete
  51. For July 21

    Things are getting a little tighter on the upside for the ES and I think this would be a lower risk trade for the sellers VS. buyers. No doubt indicators are bullish and can be pinned there for a while, but I am selling any rallies we see today. Stops will be tight and I will be ready to switch gears and buy if needed. (just in case the stops are ran down) There is going to be a ton of them over 957's

    ES: Sell 951-955 Stop 961 Target 935, Res and daily pivot 944

    For the Euro I see the DX finally closing today below the right shoulder and it has yet to test the middle of the H&S. EC indicators are bullish, so I am a buyer of dips today.

    EC: Buy 1.4167-1.4184 Stop 1.4130 Target 1.4340 res and likely P.O. 1.4265, res 1.4210

    Regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  52. Homework for Tuesday, July 21, 2009

    RESULT FOR MONDAY’S PLAN:

    ES: Triggered and was good for about 14-15 p.
    NQ: Did not trigger, but correct direction.
    EC: Did not trigger, but PO was reached.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports had another strong day. Is above both the 48 and the 200 dma. Indicators are very strong. BULLISH.

    Nasdaq has had 9 winning days in a row, and above both the 48 and the 200 dma. Indicators are looking strong. BULLISH.

    S&P had another winning day. Indicators are strong. It is still above both the 48 and 200 dma. BULLISH.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 232-77

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 161-18

    FUTURES
    ========
    ES: Despite the obvious resistance up at this 950 level I suggest to BUY 942-944, STP 932, PO 960.

    NQ: BUY 1533-1535, STP 1523, PO 1560.


    Good Trading.
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  53. "Live Together, Die Alone!" from Lost. Will be happier to trade TMR when the room is fuller.
    Internet shutted me out for whole night.

    HW reviews:
    ES short good for 8pts
    ZB long good for 1 23/32 even TMR long would be nice if taken.
    EC 1 tick from stop

    ES 7th up day, resistant 953, 969
    textbook short play?: sell 956 stop 966 PO 933

    NQ looks tired probe short 1555

    ZB seen support @ ambush zone,
    Long 115^300 stop 115^130 PO 118^030

    EC broke out from down channel
    Long 1.4124, stop 1.4050, PO 1.4300+

    this week is a lazy week for tradings.

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  54. Homework for Wednesday, July 22, 2009

    RESULT FOR TUESDAY’S PLAN:

    ES: Triggered and was good for about 12-14 p.
    NQ: Did not trigger, but was in the right direction.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports ended down by 0.7%. It is nearing resistance at the 3,440 level. It is above both the 48 and the 200 dma, and the 48 has now crossed above the 200 line. Indicators are very strong, but beginning to hook down a little. BULLISH.

    Nasdaq had its 10th winning days in a row. It is above both the 48 and the 200 dma, and in a nice uptrending channel and still about 200 p away from hitting the “ceiling” in that channel. Indicators are looking strong. BULLISH.

    S&P had another winning day. Indicators are strong. It is still above both the 48 and 200 dma. BULLISH.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 161-145

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 232-77


    FUTURES
    ========
    ES: BUY 947-949, STP 937, PO 965

    NQ: BUY 1542-1544, STP 1527, PO 1568.


    Good Trading.
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  55. Where were you when I needed you the most, my dearest INTERNET?

    HW reviews:
    ES short good for 17pts, ZB missed by 2 ticks PO reached.

    ES came back from a double top drop, seems bullish.
    Long Play: Buy 943 stop 935, PO 980

    ZB swing Ambush support, hope it holds
    Buy 117^080 stop 116^150 PO 120^090

    EC down channel break out
    Buy 1.4145 stop 1.4080 PO 1.4300

    ZS bear flag
    sell stop 886 PO 830

    vacation mode this week, its okay with or without me.

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  56. For Thursday July 23rd

    My power has been out for the last two days and it seems like I didn't miss much in the ES. It was nice to get away for a little bit to refresh the batteries. Looks like nimble traders are the ones in profit, so I will take that approach for today. I see indicators for ES curling on all fronts so I am going to stick to my sell any up moves and keep the stops a little tighter. Not going to be greedy today and get out when it gives me a chance this is because NQ still looks like it has a little bull still in it. Indicators are mixed but still not curling to badly for a pure short. This is why I will take a nimble approach for Thursday.

    ES: Sell 956 stop 963 P.O. 949
    NQ: Sell 1562 stop 1580 target 1541

    No EC trades today going to see how it reacts off of the DX H&S test.

    Regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  57. Typo: NQ sell level 1568
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  58. My Internet seems to be out @ elevenish am & pm.

    HW for Thursday, July 23

    ES consolidate @ high......
    Buy:933, stop:924, PO 960
    Probe short 961

    NQ @ bottom of up channel
    Buy: 1544, stop 1522 PO 1585, resist 1571

    ZB testing bottom of up channel, if fail= bear flag, seemingly a right shoulder of upright H/S.......
    Sell: 118^020, stop 118^240, PO 116^020

    EC flat top
    Sell 14320, stop 14390, PO 14118

    GBP down trend line resistance
    Sell:16540, stop 16610, PO 16240

    ZS Up channel range trading
    Buy: 898, stop 888, PO 945, resist 935
    Bear flag sell stop 886, PO 850

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  59. Homework for Thursday, July 23, 2009

    RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY’S PLAN:

    ES: Triggered and was good for about 7 p.
    NQ: Did not trigger, but was in the right direction.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports ended up 1% on lower volume than the previous down day. Near resistance at the 3,440 level. Negative MacAllan. It is above both the 48 and the 200 dma. Indicators are very strong, but beginning to hook down a little. BULLISH.

    Nasdaq has had 11 winning days in a row. Negative MacAllan. It is above both the 48 and the 200 dma, and in a nice up trending channel and still about 200 p away from hitting the “ceiling” in that channel. Indicators are looking strong, but a few beginning to hook down as well. BULLISH.

    S&P finish slightly lower. Negative MacAllan. Indicators are strong, but a few are beginning to hook down. It is still above both the 48 and 200 dma. BULLISH.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 170-134

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 135-19


    FUTURES
    ========
    ES: BUY 946-949, STP 940, PO 965.

    NQ: BUY 1550-1552, STP 1540, PO 1575.


    Good Trading.
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  60. Had a probe short on ES, go squeezed for a whole day, and got out when I got my wallet back.


    HW for Friday July 24, 2009

    ES at bottom of a tight up channel,
    Buy 956 stop 944 PO 976......may see 997!
    Probe short 988

    NQ similiar to ES
    Buy 1564, stop 1544 PO 1618

    ZB right shoulder formed
    sell 117^110 stop 117^280 PO 114^080

    EC ascending triangle
    buy 14140 stop 14028 PO 14380

    GBP wedge formation
    buy 16355 stop 16266 PO 16532, possible 16847

    ZS 200 sma testing
    buy 915, stop 902, PO 947 resist 934(200sma)

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  61. Homework for Monday, July 27, 2009

    RESULT FOR FRIDAY’S PLAN:

    N/A.

    INDICES
    =======
    Transports ended up by 0.9% on below average volume. Indicators are very bullish.

    Nasdaq ended down 0.4% on average volume after 12 straight up days. It recorded its highest closed since the first week of October, 2008. Indicators are very bullish.

    S&P ended up by 0.3% and closing on its highest level since the beginning of this year. Indicators are very bullish.

    Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 183-110

    New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 149-17

    VIX: 23.09 (lowest close since the first week of September, 2008)


    FUTURES
    ========
    ES: BUY 969-971, STP 959, PO 987.

    NQ: BUY 1586-1588, STP 1572, PO 1616.

    EC: BUY 1.4195-1.4197, STP 1.4130, PO 1.4325.


    Good Trading.
    Allan

    ReplyDelete
  62. 27th July 2009
    --------------
    I am back after a compelte "trading blackout" since 14th Jul (apart from a visit to CME/CBOT trading floor) and still going through what all has been happening in the markets. I am slowly easing into trading and looking forward to chatting with you all soon. I will mostly start with TMR tomorrow (and review of my various pre-holiday positions - I see that some of my Cocoa longs were filled on breakouts up and are doing good so far). More HW from Monday night onwards.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result


    NQ:
    ---

    ES:
    ---

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------

    GC:GCQ9
    -------

    CL:CLq9
    -------

    BP: 6BU9
    --------

    EC:6Eu9
    -------

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------

    Other notes:
    ------------
    - Cocoa has broken out on upside. It presents an interesting set-up for adding longs.
    - ZCz9 (CORN) has indicated a MacD (daily) signal for long. Mirror image on chart after that so next day can indicate direction.
    - CL has bounced good from Ambush long area so it seems it can take out recent high of 74 and head bit higher.

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  63. For July 27,

    Trans look super good and with indicators on ES looking the same I am a buyer tomorrow.

    ES Buy 968 S 953 tar near term 1000-1008 res and P.O. 980-978

    NQ Buy 1582 S 1567 Tar 1627 res 1600-1604

    ZB Sell 117^07 S 118^02 Tar 116-116^08

    Regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  64. HW for Monday July 27, 2009

    ES up channel support,
    Buy 962, stop 947, PO 1003 (top channel resistance)

    NQ Up channel Support,
    Buy 1580, Stop 1559, PO 1640

    ZB trend line resistance,
    Sell 117^030, stop 117^240, PO 114^120

    EC 10 MA and Trend line support,
    Buy 14090, stop 14030, PO 14330

    GBP wedge formation,
    Bull play, Buy stop 16580, PO 16846
    Bear play, Sell stop 16370, PO 16116

    ZS Bottom of up channel, if break = Bear flag
    Buy 898 stop 884, PO 945

    still hv internet issues,

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  65. 28th July 2009
    --------------
    Not a great start of trading day after holiday. All TMRs stopped after reaching close but not up to usual profit objectives. There were no trades from my HW and on top children schools are still closed putting extra demand on taxi duties. Anyways I have now got some idea about what all happend while I was away. The market turn around has been impressive and my biases have flipped.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    NTMR - mixed with ES TMR. Would have been good for +3
    ESTMR - L stopped -5
    S + 3.5
    L + 3.5 *** first time I noted three flips in a day!

    ZBTMR -11/32 at close
    ZSTMR Stopped -5

    NQ:
    ---
    NQ appears to be bullish now and 1633 - 1683 appears to be next target if this bull move continues. For day trade basis, there was a doji with barely positive close. Given the unbroken green days a pull back could be in offing but at the same time, shorting a healthy bull move on that premise only would not be a good strategy. However a Mac60 short has been trigerred. That makes the analysis complex for me. I will use 1609 high as key trigger. If that is breached on the upside, I will trade on long side

    B : 1594 after 1609 breakout probe long.
    ST : 1588 for both
    TG : 1628, 1616 res

    For shorts I will look for intra day setup if 1578 does not hold support.

    ES:
    ---
    Pretty much same story as NQ and therefore I will watch how 984 holds (Mac60 under way for shorts)

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    mac60 Long is in play. Would play it around that. Esp if the other markets turn around and dump. However my bias is shrot on ZB.

    B : Stop buy 115'22
    ST : 114'30
    TG : 116'235

    GC:GCZ9
    -------
    Pass on day trade.

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Pass

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    pass

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    pass

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  66. HW for Tues, July 28, 09.

    ES @ Bottom of up channel,
    Probe short 992,
    Buy 962, stop 949, PO 988

    NQ @ Bottom of up channel,
    Probe short 1613,
    Buy: 1572, stop 1550, PO 1609

    ZB Descending Triangle,
    Short 116^270, stop 117^140, PO 114^220

    EC Ascending Triangle,
    Buy: 14184, stop 14102, PO 14327

    GBP Wedge formation

    Bull Play, buy stop: 16565 PO 16843
    Bear Play, sell stop: 16413 PO 16118

    ZS 200MA resistance, up channel support.

    Long play, Buy:900 stop 888, PO 933
    short play, sell stop 883 PO 855

    Cheers,


    AO

    ReplyDelete
  67. deeinthejungle28 Jul 2009, 06:20:00

    Hello,

    I'm going on vacation tomorrow. I am excited and of course wishing it was in a couple of weeks time since i'm enjoying this market, albeit with v diminished trading.
    Just a quick note offering this Paul Tutor Jones Documentary, which is phenomenal to watch. You have to watch it in 7 parts. Apparently it has been off the market for years, as per Jones' request, and may be taken off youtube fairly quickly.
    this is
    http://www.youtube.com/user/doctationsmarketing#play/uploads/6/ELiKV9Kqo84

    And i was also going to suggest as a new feature to add book reviews on classic books, since this is a group learning experience.

    have a great 2 weeks of trading and I can't wait to be back,

    Diana

    ReplyDelete
  68. Your wish is my command Dee. There is a new page now where such reviews can be put. I am putting the PTJ video link as well there as first item. Access the page here

    Also find a short cut to access review page on the top right corner under the Post your homework link.

    ReplyDelete
  69. 29th July 2009
    --------------
    ZB Mac60 worked well, especially given the first TMR was short. Also a good day on TMR fronts.
    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    ZB - filled, target reached by .5/32. Runner stopped out with lose change.
    NQ - no fill
    ES - no fill

    NTMR - no trade
    ESTMR- S +3 and + lose change
    ZBTMR- S +10/32 + lose change
    L +10/32 + 22/32 runner
    *** next short reversal would have been good for +15/32 but not taken
    ZSTMR- L + 3 + runner (still on)

    NQ:
    ---
    There is a very good chance that NQ will break new highs. 1633-1683 target remains on upside. Breach of 1609 will give comfort to that strategy. My HW remains same as yesterday

    NQ appears to be bullish now and 1633 - 1683 appears to be next target if this bull move continues. For day trade basis, there was a doji with barely positive close. Given the unbroken green days a pull back could be in offing but at the same time, shorting a healthy bull move on that premise only would not be a good strategy. However a Mac60 short has been trigerred. That makes the analysis complex for me. I will use 1609 high as key trigger. If that is breached on the upside, I will trade on long side

    B : 1597 after 1609 breakout probe long.
    ST : 1588 for both
    TG : 1628, 1616 res

    For shorts I will look for intra day setup if 1578 does not hold support.

    ES:
    ---
    ES was slighly weaker than NQ and looking a bit tired now. I will look at NQ action to see where this is pulled. 981-984 is key res now and if that holds down side could be in offing. For a case on short side Mac60 trade is still on for shorts. May be a probe short at 981 with stop at 985 can be a way to trade this tomorrow.

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    My bias is short on ZB with 114'16 as first target on downside as long as 117'05 hold as res. Deeper down I see further downside in ZB to greater depths (as part a long term trade) but that trade is not yet set up. I will try a probe trade

    S : 116'02
    ST: 116'25 MS 116'10
    TG: 114'16, 115 sup

    GC:GCZ9
    -------
    Pass on day trade.

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    I will look to buy 64 region with stop below 58.5 if we reach that area. Watching.

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    BP is looking like a tired beast now and may be setting up for a short. As a probe I will consider

    S : 1.6473
    ST : 1.6600 (bit wide as of now) MS 1.65
    TG : 1.6112/1.6283, 1.6350 sup

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    Bit of range bound action so I will pass. I am watching 1.4338 area if that breaks on upside to consider long.

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass. Happy with TMR. Looking long.

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  70. A few careless mistakes and internet ruined the day. At least I know what I hv to focus, an Triple Expresso before anything.

    HW for Wed July 29, 09

    ES consolidate at high
    Sell 982 stop 988, PO 965

    NQ up channel support
    Buy 1580, stop 1559, PO 1614

    ZB, Trend line resist
    sell 116^180 stop 117^060 PO 115^080

    EC flat top
    sell 14295 stop 14365 PO 14070

    ZS trend line and 200 sma resist or break out play @ 932, watching



    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  71. For July 29th
    I have the ES indicators all curling downward and a possible retest of the head/support area in the H&S.

    ES: Sell 979 stop 986 target 963

    EC: already hit my target but not entry direction was correct. Levels were Sell 1.4250 stop 1.4310 target 1.4115

    Regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  72. 30th July 2009
    --------------
    Not a good day for TMR. Very choppy and range bound action. ES was chopping around in its TMR range. I took usual 3 trades (L/S/L) and lost some money. A very choppy day indeed.

    Overall the markets were choppy without clear direction. The news front was not positive for bullish side. If you recall the early summer months where the markets put a series of "crosses in cemetery". Current action looks the same.

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    ZB - filled, target reached by .5/32. Runner stopped out with lose change.
    NQ - no fill
    ES - no fill
    6B - missed by 5 ticks!. 1.6350 supp acted well. Would have worked for nearly 120 pips!

    NTMR - -2.5 (stop out). Was bit of strange reaction to news.
    ESTMR- L +3, S -5, L -5 and then lots of flip flops that I did not bother to trade.
    ZSTMR- S -5, L +1 around close
    ZBTMR- L 0 (closed before news)
    S +21/32 and lose change runner

    NQ:
    ---
    Since we seems to be establishing a range, I am keeping the same HW which is essentially becoming a breakout play. I see a range from 1579-1609 (30 points) and the direction of break should determine the next direction.

    range play trade:
    OCO1 : STOP BUY 1609 LIMIT BUY 1549
    OCO2 : STOP SEL 1579 LIMIT SEL 1639

    I will also use the following pullback trade for long

    B : 1597 after 1609 breakout probe long.
    ST : 1588 for both
    TG : 1628, 1616 res

    For shorts I will look for intra day setup if 1578 does not hold support.

    ES:
    ---
    Similar story as NQ with 962.5 - 984 range. Need to break the range before next trend. No more trades till then.

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    There is a big H&S in making on weekly charts of ZB which signal a big drop for ZB. That is also in line with fundamentals developing (stronger stock markets, people getting concerned on inflation etc and people demanding higher returns for their money, even for lendign to govt). So may be the secular bear market in Govt Bond is in progress. My bias is short on ZB for some time with some projections pointing to 106 - 98 region (and even 90). Howver that is bit too doom and gloom and discussion for a long term trade setup.

    With that view we have also seen two green days in bonds (whcih I am calling as two up days in bear market).

    S : 116'20 - 117'05
    ST: 118'03
    TG: 114 - 111'20, 114'30 sup.

    GC:GCZ9
    -------
    Pass on day trade.

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Pass

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    GBP is looking a short though some consolidations appears to be in making. I am in selling rallies mode.

    S : 1.6409
    ST : 1.6460
    TG : 1.6112/1.6283, 1.6320 sup

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    Bit of range bound action so I will pass. I am watching 1.4338 area if that breaks on upside to consider long. However there is a small setup indicating a short for which I can try the probe

    S : 1.4115-55
    ST : 1.4210
    TG : 1.3822, 1.3936 sup

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass. Happy with TMR. Looking long.

    Other notes:
    ------------
    - MacD Short on AUD/CAD
    - and MacD long on DX

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  73. For Thursday July 29th

    Results: no trade triggered on ES missed by a couple of points but direction was correct and p.o. range hit.
    EC right direction but was 53 pips away from entry target hit.

    For today I heeded Oscars warnings and am a buyer of dips. Indicators look a little top heavy for ES so I will not be greedy and look for 6-10 points on all contracts. DX appears to be in a downward channel and could help hold the shorts at bay. I have the top of the channel around 80.17 on the DX daily.

    ES Buy 966-969 St 954 target 984 res 976

    NQ Buy 1587-1590 St 1570 target 1609-1606

    EC Sell 1.4118 St 1.4203 target 1.4004

    Regard,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  74. I hv to survive till next week, next week I will be a better internet provider......fibre optic......

    HW for Thurs, July 30,09

    ES bottom of small range channel
    Buy 967, stop 959, PO 996,

    NQ bottom of small range channel
    Buy 1584, stop 1568, PO 1618

    ZB Trend line breakout? and some support
    L 115^105, stop 114^200, PO 117^020

    EC Trend line and 10 MA resistance
    short 14202, stop 14286, PO 14008

    GBP
    buy 16335, stop 16220, PO 16600

    ZB Trend line and 200 ma break out
    Buy TMR?

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  75. 31st July 2009
    --------------
    Interesting day with massive breakout from the range but ended with a fizzle. It seems the bulls are back for sometime. For how long?

    Previous Trades:
    ----------------

    Earlier HW Trades Result

    ZB - filled, leaving with STOPS on
    NQ - Filled, exit on trailing stop
    ES - no trade
    6B - Filled and stopped
    6E - not filled

    NTMR - L +2
    ESTMR- L +3
    ZSTMR- Did not take but would be good for +8
    ZBTMR- Did not take but the results would be
    L Stop, S Stop, L +1.040

    NQ:
    ---
    The breakout from the range was on the upside but the worrying aspect for longs is that markets settled below the range once again leaving a shooting star pattern. That is usually a reversal sign. On top of that, 1633 is a 50% ambush for the whole down move (2256.25 - 1017.75). This makes makes me want to prefer the downside tomorrow.

    S : 1612.5 - 1617.5
    ST : 1623 MS 1620
    TG : 1599-1590-1572

    For the bulls to keep strength, 1590 should hold support. That can create next setup for bulls to take it much higher.

    ES:
    ---
    Same story as NQ, the range was broken to upside but settled below the top again. I would think a run towards 978-975 is possible. I would not take trade on ES until the range is clearly broken.

    ZB:ZBu9
    -------
    I already have a trade on in ZB. Will pass for today.

    GC:GCZ9
    -------
    A nice appex is building up on weekly chart which given the inverted H&S could give a breakout on long. But for the time being, I will watch.

    CL:CLq9
    -------
    Pass. The up move in interesting. Buy in 64 area seems to have worked.

    BP: 6BU9
    --------
    Pass. Looking stuck.

    EC:6Eu9
    -------
    Pass.

    ZS: ZSn9
    --------
    Pass. Nice move up.

    Other notes:
    ------------

    Happy Trading,
    VS

    ReplyDelete
  76. Internet, Internet, I need Internet.

    HW for Friday, July 31, 2009

    ES narrow channel play,
    Buy 972, stop 964, PO 998,
    Probe short 1002

    NQ failed Break out, settled below trend support
    Sell 1620, stop 1632, PO 1590

    ZB small up channel support,
    Buy, 116^040, stop 115^180, PO 117^300

    EC Break Down Trend support,
    Sell 14198, stop 14265, PO 13988

    Cdn down channel break out,
    Buy 9176 stop 9102, PO 9306

    GBP 49 sma support
    buy 16411 stop 16349, PO 16678

    ZS strong Break Out, buy pull back above 934

    Cheers,

    AO

    ReplyDelete
  77. For July 31
    No trades triggered yesterday.

    For today I see no reason for me not to be a buyer of dips.

    B 976-974 St 862 tar 1001 res and my P.O. 993-994 other res at 985

    ZB Buy 116^05 st 115^10 tar 117^23 res 117^08

    Regards,
    CK

    ReplyDelete
  78. The August 2009 home work page is now open. Please post your August home work on here

    ReplyDelete

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-VS