2013-01-31

$ES_F : 1498-88 : Market Recap


Finally a pause in the rally.

Short set-up holding but barely Showing strength of this rally.


I came in the day bearish as per this trade plan. After a lower settle yesterday the markets were trading decidedly lower in the overnight sessions and the set-up before open was looking bearish. Volume was on a bit better but still sluggish, I would have expected a lot more given the month end activity. May be it will pick up near the close. VIX is now above 14 handle however the market reaction is bit muted to that. Market opened and headed to gap fill which gave short entry in the anticipated resistance area of 1498-1500 eventually making a high of 1500. Subsequent break confirmed that the short set-up is holding allowing 50% profit to be taken and stops moved to then high of day 1500 as mentioned in this comment.

$ES_F : 1498-1486 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI


Month End Window Dressing Day

1520 still in sight but short set-up in play.


It seems like ages but it appears that short set-up in play yesterday worked to its target and if there is any fire power with bears, they might try to push this overbought market a little bit more. GDP numbers were a surprise to the market. Target area of 1520 is in sight now it would seem after a strong run markets might look for a brief pause. Today is month end so once again lot of choppy trades to window dress the first month performance.

Today I would expect 1498-1500 as initial area of resistance. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are:

2013-01-30

$ES_F : 1495-1505 : Market Recap

Another new high 1506


No significant reaction to FOMC


I came in the day bearish as per this trade plan. In the overnight sessions markets made a new high at 1506 and the set-up before open was looking bearish. Volume was on low side again with only a few bars trading more than 40,000 contracts. This exaggerated the choppiness. VIX rose and claimed 14 handle (without much reaction to the market). However after a long time the markets are likely to close near the low of the day (there is still 1 hr to close so things can change). If this remains the case, it can produce another bearish day tomorrow. Market opened and headed to gap fill which gave short entry in the anticipated resistance area of 1493-95 eventually making a high of 1495.50. Subsequent break confirmed that the short set-up is holding allowing 50% profit to be taken and stops moved to then high of day 1495.50 as mentioned in this comment. Since short side is still counter trend, taking early profits on 50% of position makes sense.

$ES_F : 1495-1505 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI


FED DAY CHOPPY TRADING BEFORE FOMC

1520 still in sight but cautiously bearish for initial part of the day.


Market has been on a tear and made a new high at 1506 in overnight session. However the GDP numbers just came out and which were much lower then expected and these are likely to fuel a short set-up before FOMC announcement which is due at 14:15 ET. Any signal from FOMC on withdrawing liquidity will be bad news for this market on steroid but knowing Bernie it is very unlikely. Target area of 1520 is in sight now. There is no short set-up in play as we speak but if the GDP numbers weigh on the market we can have a minor short in play before FOMC.

Today I would expect 1503-05 as initial area of resistance. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are:

$YHOO : What is hot about $YHOO

Beside a hot CEO, what is exciting about this stock

Potentially heading to 17-11 or even $5?

Disclosure : Initiated shorts after earnings. Adding on confirmation. Stops above the $21.5 highs.

YHOO has had a good run up for nearly 6 months after breaching $16 barrier. May be it is to do with the new CEO and also the related spring clean of the company. And in the 6 months she seems to have put a fire under the stock presiding over two quarters of earnings which seems to have been appreciated by the street and investors alike. But is this relic of bygone internet boom still worth all these attention?

2013-01-29

$ES_F : 1486-1496 : Market Recap


Another new high 1503

No short set-up holding once again!


I came in the day bearish as per this trade plan. Markets still appear to be in the grip of the bulls and every short set-up is defeated even before it reaches it confirmation point. After stalling last session, markets had a bearish bias in overnight trading and 1491 area was was tested. Volume was on low side again. VIX spot dropped near 13.1 area. Market opened on bullish bias and headed to gap fill which gave short entry in the anticipated resistance area of 1495-97 eventually making a high of 1498. Subsequent break "almost" confirmed that the short set-up is holding allowing 50% profit to be taken and stops moved to then high of day 1498 as mentioned in this comment. Since short side is still counter trend, taking early profits on 50% of position makes sense.

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$ES_F : 1486-1496 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

Possible time for pause and cosolidation. Cautiously Bearish


1520 still in sight after consolidation.


After 8 consecutive green days, SPX finally had a pause and  it would appear a short set-up is play. The rally has been over-extending so there is a good chance that this short set-up will play for 15-20 points drop from the high which brings 1485-80 area which also happen to coincide with key support. Target area of 1520 is in sight now. For trend to change we need to have one established short set-up to run for at least a day and then produce a follow through.

Today I would expect 1495-97 as initial area of resistance. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are:

2013-01-28

$ES_F : 1494-1504 : Market Recap


Another new high, 9th in a row.

Short set-up still not visible.


I came in the day bullish as per this trade plan. Even after 8 consecutive green days, there does not appear to be any pause in the bullish momentum. Markets established and new high at 1500 in overnight session and shortly after open traded close to it at 1499.50. Target 1 of 1500-1520 target area has been met and second target does not look too far which will complete the rally target from 1263 area. Volume was once again very low showing a fatigue. There was a not a single 40,000 contract volume bar in 5 min bar chart so far. VIX spot rose again slightly and is knocking on 14 handle. 3m spread flattened sharply to 2.28. These contradictory signals show that markets are on a cross road and even if the undercurrent is bullish, a minor correction is nearby. Market had a slight bearish bias right from open and it traded comfortably in 1494-92 support zone and eventually trading at low of the day 1491.25. Subsequent rally confirmed the long set-up allowing stops to be moved to break even quickly which I mentioned in this comment.

$ES_F : 1494-1504 : Expected day session range for EMINI



Market with extending rally.

Bullish until trend change. 1500-1520 in sight.


SPX has 8 consecutive green sessions so far even after bad news on from AAPL. This is showing the euphoria and strength of this bull market. On a quick look I could not find such pattern before on chart but I will have a look later on. The rally is over-extending but we there is not yet a short set-up in play yet. If this is what markets want, this is what they will get.  The next target area of 1500-1520 is in sight now. For trend to change we need to have one established short set-up to run for at least a day.

Today I would expect 1492-94 as initial area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are:

2013-01-27

How do you trade? $$

General note on how I trade.

And place to discuss your own trade approaches.


A short discussion note to explain my trade plans and also to know bit more about yours. 


What I trade?

I am only trading emini S&P 500 futures these days. Once I get bit more time on my hand I would like to analyse and trade some popular stocks and other liquid futures and forex. I do look at all major markets once a week for longer term trade perspectives or to plan some swing trades. I only trade US markets as the timings suits my work routine. 

What time frame?

My usual style is to trade positions for longer period/swing trade if I can identify a trend and can position myself to ride it. For day trades, I only plan and trade the regular trading session for e-mini S&P 500. The overnight session acts as a good guide to what is going to happen in the day session. Remember trading is always about finding the right zone. I start and publish my day trading plan for e-mini around 0730-0800 CET before the futures pits open for trading. Most of the pre-open news like employment numbers, other important announcements are already out by this time and you get a feel of how futures are reacting. Here is how I plan my trading day  


2013-01-25

$ES_F : 1490-1504 : Market Recap


Still bullish. Market on steroid.

Another day another new high.


I came in the day bullish as per this trade plan. The overnight short set-up I mentioned yesterday and which I was expecting to play out today did not hold and once again shorts were defeated even before the day session began. Markets established another new high at 1498.75 and we are just few points away from 1500-1520 target area for the longest running long set-up for the rally which started in June 2012 from 1263 area. What a marvellous bullish marker! Volume was reasonable today. VIX spot rose slightly and so far did not make new low. 3 m spread is flattening slightly to 2.74. Market had a slight bearish bias right from open and it traded comfortably in 1490-92 support zone which was identified as minor support. However after rallying from low of the day 1490.75, I misread the market when it stalled around 1494 area.

$AAPL : What are you doing with your $AAPL holding

With the stock down 35% from top what are "real people" doing?

Buy, Hold, Sell, Short?


It is no secret yesterday's price down in AAPL was dramatic. Very high volume traded and the stock dropped nearly $63, largest absolute drop (in % terms there have been bigger drops in past) in a single day. Market cap equivalent to many NFLX, RIMM, even some countries GDP was wiped out.

But so far, it seems the pain is felt by over leveraged, momentum chasers, hedge funds type OR computers churning stock from one register to another. I am interested in knowing what are real people doing? People like you and me. 

I am sure you would have stories to say. When you bought AAPL? What was the lowest price you paid? Are you still holding that?

$ES_F : 1490-1504 : Expected day session range for EMINI


Long set-up still in play. 

Bullish until trend change. 1500-1520 in sight.


Markets seems to have digested AAPL disappointment really well and seems to be on steroids to make new highs. Last 5 sessions made a new high each session without breaching low of previous day significantly. This is overextending the rally a bit but what can one do. If this is what markets want, this is what they will get.  The next target area of 1500-1520 is in sight now however the markets are looking overbought and ripe for a pull-back or correction which is likely to end in 1480 area. The short set-up which was in play overnight has not worked

Today I would expect 1490-92 as initial area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are:

2013-01-24

$ES_F : 1480-1490 : Market Recap


Bullish theme continues. However a possible sign of rejection of highs.

Markets established a new high on good volume.


I came in the day bullish as per this trade plan, but given AAPL's disastrous earnings overnight with stock printing 10% down in pre market, I was expecting a deeper pull back before the next move up. Volume was better today and AAPL was very active. The good news is that even with AAPL down so much the markets managed to retain the bullish tone which is very significant for long side. The bad news is that two minor long set-ups are broken on the way down from 1497.75 high which could mean shorts have a chance to prove their strength tomorrow.  VIX spot shot up today by 1 full point before collapsing back again - in fact they halted VIX trading (something I need to check up in news) - this move added to the weakness. 3 m spread is flattening slightly to 2.95. Market had a bullish bias right from open and without any significant dip, and certainly far away from the support area I was expecting, they shot up and went far beyond the expected high of the day stopping only at 1497.75. This made clear that my analysis was out of line and I decided to make it a "no trade" day via this comment.

$ES_F : 1480 - 1490 : Expected day session range for EMINI


Long set-up still in play but nearing resistance and AAPL will weigh it down.

Bullish until trend change. 1500-1520 in sight.


US markets are maintaining their bullish position even though AAPL announced poor earnings and which is taking the stock down 10% in overnight session. Yesterday was again a low volume narrow range day and market did not manage to take out overnight highs which remain at 1491.50. The next target area of 1500-1520 is in sight now however the markets are looking overbought and ripe for a pull-back or correction. Still so far the short set-up is not in play and buying dip could still be in fashion.

Today I would expect 1481-79 as initial area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are:

$AAPL : Don't count on the boom from the cash pile.

Why AAPL cash pile will not be enough to bring it to former glory.

How AAPL is a "value" stock and not a "growth" play. 

Disclosure : Last legs of shorts running on trailing stops as per this post.

After a record quarter last night and subsequent after hour crash of nearly 10% (I see a quote of 464 just now, having touched a low of 457 earlier) it is not entirely surprising that the internet and social streams are filled with $AAPL news. Visit social sites for traders and you are bound to find many traders and investors plainly disgusted and disappointed with the results so far. AAPL is present in almost every single active trading account in US. It has long been a hedge fund darling for sometime and main driver of alpha (over performance over benchmark) and therefore a source of popular trade - long AAPL short SPX. This trade is unwinding for a long time.

2013-01-23

$ES_F : 1484-1494 : Market Recap


Bullish theme continues. Watch for fatigue.

Markets moved up on very low volume and managed to establish a new high overnight.


As per this trade plan I came in the day with bullish set-up, even though the markets are showing signs of fatigue on resistance levels. Today was again a very low volume session indicating some fatigue building up on resistance levels. Till now there is only one 5 minute bar with 40,000 emini contracts. VIX spot was once again under pressure making a new lows and but 3 m spread is flattening slightly to 2.90 after debt ceiling can was kicked down the road. After making overnight new high of 1491.25, markets had a bearish bias at open and an overnight intra day short set-up was in play so I was expecting markets to trade in 1484/82 support zone before a long side move starts. However the selling stopped at 1484.5 two ticks above minor support and the subsequent reaction tested the failure of the intra day short set-up. I made a low conviction call to expect that low of the day is in at 1484.50 via this comment.

$ES_F : 1484-1494 : Expected day session range for EMINI


Long set-up still in play but nearing resistance.

Bullish until trend change. 1500-1520 in sight.


Broader US markets are basking in their new found glory. Russell-2000 is at all time high, that is higher than dot com, higher than 2007 peak, higher than anything it has been in its history. DowJones and SPX are not far behind. The earning season has started on positive note with GOOG and IBM reporting good results and all eyes are on AAPL tonight after close. It seems investors are more optimistic than economists this time and the trend firmly remains on long side. The next target area of 1500-1520 is in sight now however the markets are looking overbought and ripe for a pull-back or correction. Still there is no point in fighting the tape and until a short set-up holds for more than one day, it pays to buy the dips with caution.

Today I would expect 1484-82 as initial area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are:

2013-01-22

$ES_F : 1473-1483 : Expected day session range for EMINI


Long set-up still in play.

Attempt at new highs. Bullish.


After the holiday markets are likely to find support at 1473-76 and build next move up. Top of the breakout range at 1468 is support. The long set-up was confirmed on Friday. Possible resistance is in 1486-88 area after which 1500-1520 is next target.


Today I would expect 1476-73 as area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are


2013-01-18

$ES_F : 1473-1483 : Expected day session range for emini

Chance for longs to confirm the set-up.

Attempt at new highs. Bullish.


Markets are likely to find support at 1473 and build next move up. Markets have finally broken out of the range and now the top of the range at 1468 is support. To continue the bullish set-up a confirmation is needed today otherwise the break would seem a false breakout. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.

Today I would expect 1473-70 as area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors supporting the rally are

2013-01-17

$ES_F : 1467-1477 : Expected day session range for emini


EDIT - As per this comment the range was revised to 1470-1480.

No resolution No direction. Might as well copy paste previous post.

Potential attempt at highs. Cautiously Bullish.


It is incredible (but not unseen/unheard of) for SPX to get stuck in a tight range putting in doji like crosses every day. Close to Close SPX has barely moved a 0.43 points (not %) in last 5 sessions. Trading is still range based in 1460-70 area and a breakout from this zone is needed for further direction. My reading or facebook activities have increased while these markets churn. Apologies to friends whose timelines I am flooding. So far the short set-ups which had emerged have been broken so a new one need to emerge and hold before a sustained trend change can be called. Long set-ups are in play but they are hitting resistance in 1468-70 area. Having held its ground, I expect the next move could be to make next attempt at multi year highs at 1479-77 area as first target. Down side possibility of a move to 1446 (19th Dec top) or even 1436 area remains on card if support breaks. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.




Today I would expect 1467-65 as area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. The concern for rally remain the same (again):

2013-01-16

On Lighter Note $LOL

When there is not much to do

We can at least laugh.

How do you know market is trading against you?
Place a limit order. If its filled you are on wrong side. (lol)

Keep reading the comments and feel free to add. Lets bring a smile on our faces.
Subscribe to email updates on comment streams to receive updates.

$ES_F : 1458-1470 expected day session range for emini.


Still a tug of war between long and short. Flip Flop days!

Potential attempt at highs. Cautiously Bullish.


Markets are still settled in the narrow range but keeping that bullish posture on daily time frame. Current markets are difficult to trade and best watched for developing set up and catching up with reading or facebook. So far the short set-ups which had emerged have been broken so a new one need to emerge and hold before a sustained trend change can be called. The trading is bit conviction less choppy and lacking energy for sometime. Having held its ground, I expect the next move could be to make next attempt at multi year highs at 1479-77 area as first target. Down side possibility of a move to 1446 (19th Dec top) or even 1436 area remains on card if support breaks. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.

Today I would expect 1458-59 as area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. The concern for rally remain the same:

2013-01-15

$GC_F : Bullish set-up in making

Tentative long set-up appears to be in making

Cautiously long, expecting a break above 1720-30 for safe long.


Here is a weekly chart for Gold continuous futures. Those who follow gold closely, know that it is in a painful range for more than a year after hitting all time high in 1923 area. The ranges are very difficult to trade for trend followers and price action is choppy and churning, resulting in many bad trades or scratch trades and eventually everyone throws in the towel before a move develops out of the range. Gold has been in 1800-1500 range for more than a year now (yellow dashed lines). 

$ES_F : 1464-1452 expected day session range


Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P500 futures

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bearish.


Markets have been in bullish stance since start of new year but lately they settled into very narrow conviction less range at resistance level. Last session was the first such session where an ongoing short set-up from 1466 was not broken and in the overnight session it met its target at 1457.75. This certainly does not mean start of a bear market BUT it certainly is a sign that a correction is due in next few trading sessions possibly a move 1446 (19th Dec top) or even 1436 area. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.

Today I would expect 1463-66 as area of resistance. Futures are pointing to a gap down so there is a good chance we might not even reach there. I will update the comments section as the day develops. The concern for rally remain the same:

2013-01-14

$ES_F : 1459-1470 expected day session range


Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P500 futures

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bullish.


Markets have been maintaining their bullish stance but in a very narrow range. So far it appears that the control is in the hands of longs and therefore any pull-back is being bought however there has not been a high energy breakout on upside. Given that markets are at multi year high a pull back to 1450 area is warranted before next up move can be built. If the upward momentum can be maintained, 1500-1526 is next target area for emini.

Today I would expect 1456-58 area acting as support and 1461-63 area as minor support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. However the following are some concerns.

2013-01-13

Blog Redesign

New look blog!

Result of accident !

I had to make changes to my blog template. I was playing around with some set-up on a lazy Sunday and inadvertently managed to make some changes which made the existing blog out of shape. I tried to restore back up templates, tried to edit the HTML/XML templates and many other technological tricks but to no avail. In the end I decided to slap a brand new template "Dynamic Views" and re-done some of my customisation.

However I am sure, I will discover some missing links/features as days progress. If you were a reader of the blog, please have a look and comment if any of the features you used earlier are not working and I will do my best to restore them, if I can.

Also while you are at it, please comment on the new look if it is any better. I am assuming the new template is better suited for mobile devices.

Many thanks for visiting.

VS

2013-01-11

$AAPL – 480-460 next target

Short setup is still in play

Disclosure : Last set of shorts remaining on trailing stops.

AAPL seems to be losing its magic. Since hitting all time high at 705, the stock is lagging the broader market. Technically the charts have turned bearish with the stock well below its 200 DMA. On relative strength basis too the stock is lagging with broader market putting an impressive rally since 31st December 2012 but AAPL has already given up all the up move from that day. There was a time when AAPL was a key stock for “alpha” – to catch market out performance and several traders used to be long AAPL and short S&P as hedge. Those trades are underwater for sometime.

Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with AAPL. In fact AMZN is making new highs on lousy fundamentals but hey – who said stock markets are “rational”.
With AAPL likely to close below 522 today, the short setup is still firmly remains in play even though AAPL is currently trading in strong long term support area and merits a caution in carrying large positions. 507 area has acted as strong support in past but at the same time its been attacked vigorously and each bounce has produced lower highs, increasing the probability that next attack at support is likely to breach.
As long as AAPL is below 550-560 area, shorts are safe and next target for profit taking on shorts is 480-460 region. For a long side, one of the on going short setup needs to break first before fresh new long positions can be created. May be earnings on 24th Jan can create such catalyst. Who knows.

$ES_F : 1463-1475 expected day session range.


Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P 500 futures.

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bullish.


Markets finally managed to break above the resistance zone yesterday and so far have managed to take a peak above in overnight session. So far the control still seems to be in the hands of the bulls and we can see 1500-1526 area in due course. For today I would expect 1463-1461 providing support and if that support is held, market moving up to 1475 area or higher. However the following are some concerns.

2013-01-10

$ES_F : 1456-66 expected day session range

Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P 500 futures.

Bullish side to assert once again to breach resistance at 1460 area. 


I am still pretty occupied to devote to full time trading but I have started analysing the markets regularly. Since the new year/fiscal cliff resolution drama, the markets have set-up strongly on upside and provided the momentum can be maintained going forward, 1500-1526 looks like a reasonable target for the long side. Two things makes me cautious on long side however are