2013-04-23

BTFD

What the f*** is BTFD?

I have no internet today. Trying to get along on iPad with mobile network. May be this is good for both $AAPL and $FTE (France Telecom) both of which I have bought.

Since I am forced to spend too much time on twitter, I came across once again and again and again the term BTFD. What does it mean? May be I am missing out on some special technical indicator.

So I decided to solve the riddle and throwing all my procrastination aside, I googled the term.

BTFD - Buy The F***ing Dip.

Is that it? The secret sauce? The holy grail? The bushy fountain? (ok let me stop here). No wonder I was on wrong side of this whole bull market :-)

BTFD - that's all you want.

BTFD - that's what we all must do.

More details here

I am off to BTFD.

Meanwhile enjoy a sample of my new art on iPad.

2013-04-19

$ES_F : 1545 - 1525 : Market Recap


Opex Madness - Do not fall in love with the upside (yet)

Trend change confirmed. Trading from bearish bias.


Today was April options expiry and markets reacted in some strange fashion. On one hand a healthy sign for bulls is that


  • Weekly trend change is not confirmed and markets managed to close above 1543 even though in the lower half of the weekly range.
  • Rally from 50 dma has been propelling markets higher. Each of those two rallies have been impressive and uncorrected before they are sold again. So far these corrective rallies look like making lower highs lower lows strengthening the case for bears.
However the volume on selling legs of the market is improving and any rally is building up protection buying. This is similar to situation which was prevalent in AAPL a while back before the sharp break started down. The current trend is short but it is a young and tender trend, it can be be broken easily if some determined bulls come to the party. I have started trading from the short side with caution. Here is a 5 minute chart of today's day session.



$ES_F : 1545 - 1525 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

Trend has turned bearish. Move to 1500-1450 under way.


Selling Rallies


The market is developing a well established rhythm of breaking new lows on high volume followed by low volume recovery. The volatility has increased causing the size of reaction and subsequent falls to increase (which is better for trading perspective as long as proper risk management is employed). Market is being supported by the 50 dma and so far it has acted as good support but I would expect that to be broken in coming days. It appears that a move to 1500 - 1450 area has begun. I will update the comments section as the day develops which can be subscribed for email triggers.

2013-04-18

$ES_F : 1555 - 1540 : (Early) Market Recap

Bears are getting strong.


Trend change confirmed. Trading from bearish bias.


Today is an early market recap for me as I have to go out for a lovely dinner but it seems my day trading is already done.

Markets are progressively confirming that the control has been shifted to bears and therefore trading from short side is making sense. I am getting comfortable holding short positions. The volumes are increasing on the selling legs indicating longer term players are taking profit or establishing short positions. New short sellers are also appearing to hold the shake-out attempts well and defending key levels showing the confidence of the markets to go short. I am looking for a move to 1530-1500 initially going all the way to 1450-1400 area. 1593 is marked as important top on my charts and key pivot point to trade from. Here is a 5 minute chart of today's day session.


$ES_F : 1555 - 1540 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI


Cautiously Bearish. 

Near important top. Volatility Expected


The choppiness near the top is creating a set up of possible pause in the rally. Yesterday was a good follow though day for bears coupled with high volume selling. However support was noted at 50 dma and so far that has provided a good 15 points rally from the low. The markets has so far not rejected the 1538 low. However the line in sand for bears is 1558 and hard stop at 1570. If markets starts rising beyond 1558, bears have once again lost strength. The trend is still on the mixed now with bearish bias and there are several signs indicating a fatigue and I am not planning to take a big position either way. I will update the comments as the day develops.

2013-04-17

$ES_F : 1565 - 1545 : Market Recap


Finally a success for a bears.

Important top formed at 1593. Trend change in making.


After a feeble low volume attempt to shake new shorts, the market could not entice new buyers and finally we have a good confirmed short set-up immediately in the vicinity of a top. The following are supporting the top formation and possible trend change.


  • The rally from 1533 to 1593 was a straight line up move, followed by equally strong move in opposite direction with increasing volume. These capitulation tops mark important turning points for the markets. 
  • The short set-up has held on the move down and bears have shown a follow through.
  • The macro economic climates has been screaming for a correction/pause in stock market rally for a long time. Any other indicators (bonds, metals, china, emerging markets) have not been supportive of the rally.
If the current move has strength, the first target would be 1500 - 1450 area. And if the bears have legs, a trend change on longer term time frame could develop requiring a new analysis. Here is a 5 minute chart of today's day session.


$ES_F : 1565 - 1545 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

Cautiously Bearish. 


Today is the follow up day for bears to take the market down.


The choppiness near the top is creating a set up of possible pause in the rally. Yesterday I was expecting S&P to remain below 1565 to keep the short side trade intact but instead it moved up. In pre markets session today, it is trading around 1557 giving up most of yesterday gain and leaving a nearly 10 points gap down, yesterday market had a gap up which was never filled. These sort of situations demand caution. The trend is still on the bullish side but there are several signs indicating a fatigue and I am not planning to take a big position either way. I will update the comments as the day develops.
 

$GBPUSD $6B_F : Mighty Pound could be in trouble

Sterling is looking seriously week on longer term time frames.

1.4525 area as possible next target with further downside possible.


Before 1944 British Pound was once the reserve currency of the world. Today less than 4% of worlds reserves are kept in GBP but even that makes it the third major currency in the global reserves game. But progressively British world dominance has declined together with decimation of its industrial base and over reliance of the economy on financial services. After hitting a peak of 2.1160 (not all time high but high in last 20 years) Sterling has progressively given ground against US Dollar and during the 2007-2009 financial crisis it plunged as low as 1.3502. Since then GBP has been in a very tight range for last 4 years failing to move either way out of the range. Here is a weekly chart of GBP since Oct 2007.

2013-04-16

$ES_F : : Market Recap

No Cigar for Bears (once again)


Market Seems to have rejected first attempt down.


I return from a nearly 3.5 weeks holiday and I find things the same. Markets are strong and rejecting any attempts by bears. S&P made new all time high ensuring all major US indices (DJI, RUT and SPX) have made new all time highs and it seems now even Gold bulls have thrown in the towel and embraced stocks.

Until something changes it is fair to assume that trend is favouring long side. Here is 5 minute chart of today's day session: