2013-04-23

BTFD

What the f*** is BTFD?

I have no internet today. Trying to get along on iPad with mobile network. May be this is good for both $AAPL and $FTE (France Telecom) both of which I have bought.

Since I am forced to spend too much time on twitter, I came across once again and again and again the term BTFD. What does it mean? May be I am missing out on some special technical indicator.

So I decided to solve the riddle and throwing all my procrastination aside, I googled the term.

BTFD - Buy The F***ing Dip.

Is that it? The secret sauce? The holy grail? The bushy fountain? (ok let me stop here). No wonder I was on wrong side of this whole bull market :-)

BTFD - that's all you want.

BTFD - that's what we all must do.

More details here

I am off to BTFD.

Meanwhile enjoy a sample of my new art on iPad.

2013-04-19

$ES_F : 1545 - 1525 : Market Recap


Opex Madness - Do not fall in love with the upside (yet)

Trend change confirmed. Trading from bearish bias.


Today was April options expiry and markets reacted in some strange fashion. On one hand a healthy sign for bulls is that


  • Weekly trend change is not confirmed and markets managed to close above 1543 even though in the lower half of the weekly range.
  • Rally from 50 dma has been propelling markets higher. Each of those two rallies have been impressive and uncorrected before they are sold again. So far these corrective rallies look like making lower highs lower lows strengthening the case for bears.
However the volume on selling legs of the market is improving and any rally is building up protection buying. This is similar to situation which was prevalent in AAPL a while back before the sharp break started down. The current trend is short but it is a young and tender trend, it can be be broken easily if some determined bulls come to the party. I have started trading from the short side with caution. Here is a 5 minute chart of today's day session.



$ES_F : 1545 - 1525 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

Trend has turned bearish. Move to 1500-1450 under way.


Selling Rallies


The market is developing a well established rhythm of breaking new lows on high volume followed by low volume recovery. The volatility has increased causing the size of reaction and subsequent falls to increase (which is better for trading perspective as long as proper risk management is employed). Market is being supported by the 50 dma and so far it has acted as good support but I would expect that to be broken in coming days. It appears that a move to 1500 - 1450 area has begun. I will update the comments section as the day develops which can be subscribed for email triggers.

2013-04-18

$ES_F : 1555 - 1540 : (Early) Market Recap

Bears are getting strong.


Trend change confirmed. Trading from bearish bias.


Today is an early market recap for me as I have to go out for a lovely dinner but it seems my day trading is already done.

Markets are progressively confirming that the control has been shifted to bears and therefore trading from short side is making sense. I am getting comfortable holding short positions. The volumes are increasing on the selling legs indicating longer term players are taking profit or establishing short positions. New short sellers are also appearing to hold the shake-out attempts well and defending key levels showing the confidence of the markets to go short. I am looking for a move to 1530-1500 initially going all the way to 1450-1400 area. 1593 is marked as important top on my charts and key pivot point to trade from. Here is a 5 minute chart of today's day session.


$ES_F : 1555 - 1540 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI


Cautiously Bearish. 

Near important top. Volatility Expected


The choppiness near the top is creating a set up of possible pause in the rally. Yesterday was a good follow though day for bears coupled with high volume selling. However support was noted at 50 dma and so far that has provided a good 15 points rally from the low. The markets has so far not rejected the 1538 low. However the line in sand for bears is 1558 and hard stop at 1570. If markets starts rising beyond 1558, bears have once again lost strength. The trend is still on the mixed now with bearish bias and there are several signs indicating a fatigue and I am not planning to take a big position either way. I will update the comments as the day develops.

2013-04-17

$ES_F : 1565 - 1545 : Market Recap


Finally a success for a bears.

Important top formed at 1593. Trend change in making.


After a feeble low volume attempt to shake new shorts, the market could not entice new buyers and finally we have a good confirmed short set-up immediately in the vicinity of a top. The following are supporting the top formation and possible trend change.


  • The rally from 1533 to 1593 was a straight line up move, followed by equally strong move in opposite direction with increasing volume. These capitulation tops mark important turning points for the markets. 
  • The short set-up has held on the move down and bears have shown a follow through.
  • The macro economic climates has been screaming for a correction/pause in stock market rally for a long time. Any other indicators (bonds, metals, china, emerging markets) have not been supportive of the rally.
If the current move has strength, the first target would be 1500 - 1450 area. And if the bears have legs, a trend change on longer term time frame could develop requiring a new analysis. Here is a 5 minute chart of today's day session.


$ES_F : 1565 - 1545 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

Cautiously Bearish. 


Today is the follow up day for bears to take the market down.


The choppiness near the top is creating a set up of possible pause in the rally. Yesterday I was expecting S&P to remain below 1565 to keep the short side trade intact but instead it moved up. In pre markets session today, it is trading around 1557 giving up most of yesterday gain and leaving a nearly 10 points gap down, yesterday market had a gap up which was never filled. These sort of situations demand caution. The trend is still on the bullish side but there are several signs indicating a fatigue and I am not planning to take a big position either way. I will update the comments as the day develops.
 

$GBPUSD $6B_F : Mighty Pound could be in trouble

Sterling is looking seriously week on longer term time frames.

1.4525 area as possible next target with further downside possible.


Before 1944 British Pound was once the reserve currency of the world. Today less than 4% of worlds reserves are kept in GBP but even that makes it the third major currency in the global reserves game. But progressively British world dominance has declined together with decimation of its industrial base and over reliance of the economy on financial services. After hitting a peak of 2.1160 (not all time high but high in last 20 years) Sterling has progressively given ground against US Dollar and during the 2007-2009 financial crisis it plunged as low as 1.3502. Since then GBP has been in a very tight range for last 4 years failing to move either way out of the range. Here is a weekly chart of GBP since Oct 2007.

2013-04-16

$ES_F : : Market Recap

No Cigar for Bears (once again)


Market Seems to have rejected first attempt down.


I return from a nearly 3.5 weeks holiday and I find things the same. Markets are strong and rejecting any attempts by bears. S&P made new all time high ensuring all major US indices (DJI, RUT and SPX) have made new all time highs and it seems now even Gold bulls have thrown in the towel and embraced stocks.

Until something changes it is fair to assume that trend is favouring long side. Here is 5 minute chart of today's day session:

2013-03-25

Cyprus : Capitalism is back

After long negotiations, the EU group, IMF and Cyprus announced the deal in early hours to resolve the ongoing crisis which engulfed the tiny country for last 10 days. The financial systems were shut down, banks were locked, money was rationed, credit card payments ground to halt and all commercial activity virtually stopped.

On many counts this deal is lot better than how earlier bailouts were handled and the cost of collapse has been put on parties which should take up the cost in true capitalism instead of distributing the pain on wider tax payers. For a long time the bailouts were handled in socialist way where by the losses were spread around, to tax payers, to govt debts and to general public. Creating a skewed risk reward. Privatised gains but public losses. In the name of contagion or systemic failure, banks were bailed out with public money with minimal pain to the parties which should be first in line. The Cyprus rescue changes few things fundamentally:

2013-03-21

$ES_F : 1542-1552 : Market Recap


Bears are back in town.

Flip Flop continues. Caution required.


Finally it appears the markets are catching up with the reality in rest of the word. The Cyprus situation is escalating and I cringe just to watch it on TV. No credit cards, no electronic transactions, cash only deals, withdrawal limit on ATMs, banks closed till next week. This is not the environment for bull market highs. The bullish set-up is once again broken and market continued its flip flop move. My experience tells me that this is start of key moments for markets because such flip flop shows markets is struggling to find a direction and it usually marks a trend change. If I am reading right, move towards 1500 has started. Here is the 5 minute chart of today's day session....

$BCOIN : My experiments with Bit Coin

They say this is one currency no government can control.

What it is, how it is used and why you should care. 


The recent crisis in Cyprus where the banks have not opened for this week and there is a growing fear that "if and when" they open, there will be a bank run there is a lot of talk in blog-sphere about getting your freedom from Govt. controlled currencies and in that aspect BitCoin is one such currency which grabs your attention. I wanted to write a detailed post but thank to +Geoff Taylor's comment on my facebook post I got this excellent link for "all you want to know about bit coin". After this there is not much point in repeating what is already said and instead I created this post to note my experiments with $BCOIN - a new entrant in the forex market. 

So, as a start I got my BitCoin wallet. At the time of writing the bit coins are trading BTCUSD 73.0000

I am yet to open accounts with exchanges and may be buy my first bit coin. However if anyone is feeling generous, please feel free to make a donation to 1PAFHcY7CnuwM2KFW6DAo845XQz51gmBdN

I will keep updating the comments on this post to add more of my experience with BitCoin.

$ES_F : 1552 - 1542 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI


Cautiously Bearish. 

Cyprus is not fully priced in I feel.


The news from Cyprus is not improving. Today ECB threatened to pull liquidity by 25th March thereby putting a firm deadline for the Cyprus to act. In return Cyprus govt postponed vote on the plan B and announced that deposit levy is not in consideration. Russia is now playing in EU politics and I would not be surprised if this results into some new conflict as well. Germany and Russia are not the best of friends after all. The Cyprus defiance is prompting Greece to rebel against the bailout terms. British savers are fretting about their savings. The banks in Cyprus have not opened for a week now. Merchants are refusing credit card payments. Cash is running short. RAF plane is in Cyprus with cash for British personnel. We have not seen such events in a long time. We can put all our trust in politicians to resolve the issues and keep buying with both hands OR we can take stock of the situation and exercise caution. May be EU will relent and renegotiate and send a bundle of cash for bail-out without demanding bail-in. May be Russia will step up to the plate and bail out an old friend in return for military and gas exploration rights. May be AAPL will buy Cyprus island with all the excess cash sitting on its books. Who knows. May be Cyprus will leave Euro all together and go in the arms of Russia. Market is paying no attention to this event so far and going up in stride. Is this a bull trap? Is this a sign of strength of the market? I do not know. All I can see is that markets are bullish and short set-up is again broken. However I am really cautious on long side today until weekend. I will keep a keen eye on news from Europe until the mess is resolved.

2013-03-20

$ES_F : 1544-1557 : Market Recap

Business as usual - grinding high.


Short set-up broken again. 


These markets are strong. Overcoming any thing thrown in its path. Breaking any short set-up before they are even fully developed. For how long. Out side the fed protected world a lot of crazy things are happening. In a tiny island the banks have not opened since 15th March and are not going to open at least until 26th March. That is nearly 10 days of bank closure.  These are not normal times. We might hide our head in sand and think a tiny island does not matter but a big dangerous game of geo political poker has been put into play and in which everyone is going to lose. The worlds is changing. I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it it in the air. The set-up remains bullish but my caution level are at extreme high. Today Fed came out with continuation of QE. The market reaction however seems to indicated the the high induced by FOMC promises of unlimited QE is progressively getting weaker. Here is the 5 minute chart of today's day session trading.

$ES_F : 1544 - 1557 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

Cyprus Fears seems to be discounted in pre-market.


However caution is required until the dust settled.


Cyprus parliament has rejected the deposit levy leaving the crisis in limbo. No one knows when their banks will open and what will happen when they do indeed open. May be EU will relent and renegotiate and send a bundle of cash for bail-out without demanding bail-in. May be Russia will step up to the plate and bail out an old friend in return for military and gas exploration rights. May be Cyprus will leave Euro all together and go in the arms of Russia. And in all these uncertainties the markets are enjoying, completely reversing the fall yesterday. Is this a bull trap? Is this a sign of strength of the market? I do not know. All I can see is that markets are bullish and short set-up is again broken. I will keep a keen eye on news from Europe until the mess is resolved. There is FOMC announcement today which is not likely to cause much unless Bernanke starts talking about reducing liquidity.