2010-06-30

HOME WORKS (JULY 2010)

General Markets

The new homework page is here. The links have been updated on the site. Please remember to post your comments on this page. Also please remember to subscribe to comments via email on this page if you have been a passive follower. Please click here for more information on email subscription. You can also subscribe to all comments on the site by adding http://feeds.feedburner.com/vs-trader-comments RSS feed to your favourite reader like Google reader. There is also a Facebook page here for those of you on Facebook. You can like it to join the page updates.

June was a below mean/below median month mainly because I was not trading most of the time busy with other stuff. This was 13th green month in a row for the homework book. Current median return is on 2 contract lot basis $2,525 and current mean return on 2 contract lot basis is $4,978. Click here for HW Trades result on 2 contract lot basis so far. From swing/long term perspective the month was good providing some key swings. Markets are developing strong trend once again and looks like it would be a good summer.

Happy trading.

VS

2010-06-29

Is this the end of the suckers rally from March 09 lows?

S&P 500 (ESu0) and other indices

Most world markets responded strongly from the March 2009 lows and the rally went on much longer than anticipated and killed many a bears. But with fundamentals disappointing for such strong expected recovery and crisis after crisis unfolding it does appear that the rally has run out its time. In the attached weekly chart of S&P500 index, it appears that:

- Top of the rally as 1219 was a key Fib reversal point for the down move from 1576-666. This indicate start of another big move down. It is quite likely to see lows below 666 but worth assessing that scenario after nearest support point is reached.

- Medium term top has been formed by Head and Shoulder pattern which has been completed. The projection from current H&S pattern down are looking like 950 – 850 region which is also a point where bulls can regroup and attempt to take the markets higher.

- The index is below 200d and 50d MA and 50d MA is about to cross 200d MA which is usually a strong bearish signal.

It would seem appropriate to keep selling the rallies until the pips squeak.

2010-06-16

BP set for a fall?

British Pound (6Bu0) not BP (Formerly British Petroleum)

One can clearly see in a long term chart for British Pounds against USD that it is in a prolonged bear market since November 2007 after hitting the headline grabbing 2.116. After bouncing from multi year double bottom at 1.35-1.37 region, GBP did bounce back strongly BUT it was merely a correction in the longer term picture. The correction was completed at 1.7042 level and since then GBP is falling in line with its longer term trend.

At current juncture (1.47-1.50 area), GBP seems to be setting up for another short with a possible target in the 1.36-1.34 region possibly setting up a triple bottom. At current price level, the price is near 50 dMA and also near key half way back resistance levels.

As per current analysis in the attached weekly bar chart, fall to 1.36-1.34 region would complete the down move started from 1.70 region but I do expect that the longer term trend would remain down and after some quick corrective bounces, GBP would start further legs down with possible culmination at 1.25 and in extreme case parity (1.00) level in long term. But at this time these extreme levels are just some mental targets to be refined as the move develops.

2010-06-01

HOME WORKS (JUNE 2010)

General Markets

Finally, happy birthday to the Home work process and a very successful outcome thereof. During this one year, there was not a single losing month for homework trades. The new homework page is here. The links have been updated on the site. Please remember to post your comments on this page. Also please remember to subscribe to comments via email on this page if you have been a passive follower. You can also subscribe to all comments on the site by adding http://feeds.feedburner.com/vs-trader-comments RSS feed to your favourite reader like Google reader.

May was a  very good month and the best month in the 12 month history with above average and above median return. This was 12th green month in a row for the homework book. Click here for HW Trades result so far. From swing/long term perspective also the month was good providing some key swings and great result. Looks like markets are making up their mind after all on direction. Volatility is coming back to the markets and may provide good trading opportunities.

Happy trading.

VS