2013-01-25

$ES_F : 1490-1504 : Market Recap


Still bullish. Market on steroid.

Another day another new high.


I came in the day bullish as per this trade plan. The overnight short set-up I mentioned yesterday and which I was expecting to play out today did not hold and once again shorts were defeated even before the day session began. Markets established another new high at 1498.75 and we are just few points away from 1500-1520 target area for the longest running long set-up for the rally which started in June 2012 from 1263 area. What a marvellous bullish marker! Volume was reasonable today. VIX spot rose slightly and so far did not make new low. 3 m spread is flattening slightly to 2.74. Market had a slight bearish bias right from open and it traded comfortably in 1490-92 support zone which was identified as minor support. However after rallying from low of the day 1490.75, I misread the market when it stalled around 1494 area.


I wrote this comment to suggest that sellers were in control of the market and I exited my longs for a small profit. This was a mistake. Usually I would have moved my stops to low of the day or put them on trailing. May be since it is Friday or may the market has travelled up too far from various moving averages and technical set-ups which led me to undertake a wrong reading of today's price action. Eventually market proved me wrong and continued in the direction I expected though not reaching the highs I was expecting (so far - there are still 55 minutes before market close). But it was an important lesson not to pre-judge a trend change specially if your position is in the direction of main prevailing trend.

Day session range was 9 pt and overall range has been 12.

Once again there is no short-set up in play or in sight so far. Looks like we are in firm grip of bulls, even though it appears to be getting near the top.

Please have a look at this post and comment what are you planning to do with your AAPL holdings. It is just a small social survey. Thank you.