2013-01-17

$ES_F : 1467-1477 : Expected day session range for emini


EDIT - As per this comment the range was revised to 1470-1480.

No resolution No direction. Might as well copy paste previous post.

Potential attempt at highs. Cautiously Bullish.


It is incredible (but not unseen/unheard of) for SPX to get stuck in a tight range putting in doji like crosses every day. Close to Close SPX has barely moved a 0.43 points (not %) in last 5 sessions. Trading is still range based in 1460-70 area and a breakout from this zone is needed for further direction. My reading or facebook activities have increased while these markets churn. Apologies to friends whose timelines I am flooding. So far the short set-ups which had emerged have been broken so a new one need to emerge and hold before a sustained trend change can be called. Long set-ups are in play but they are hitting resistance in 1468-70 area. Having held its ground, I expect the next move could be to make next attempt at multi year highs at 1479-77 area as first target. Down side possibility of a move to 1446 (19th Dec top) or even 1436 area remains on card if support breaks. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.




Today I would expect 1467-65 as area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. The concern for rally remain the same (again):

  • Markets have now touched multi year high level which were last seen in Jan 2007 and its setting up a double top, which can bring a temporary pull-back. For bullish case to remain, the area needs to be breached convincingly.
  • VIX is at multi year low and the term structure is steepening (3m spread 3.17). Any pick up in VIX can halt this rally temporarily. 
  • The rally which started from 31st Dec 2012 has met its initial target at 1468. If this rally is not extending, we are due for a pull back. So far 1468 area has proved resistance and futures have not managed to close above it even after 4 attempts.
So far shorts have not managed to show a follow through and therefore the balance remains on bullish side.

My initial bet would be for finding minor support at 1465-67 to hold leading to a build up to 1474 and higher area. If that is visited early on in the day, I would expect it to breach. I would expect high of day in the region of 1473-1477 area given 8-10 point expected range.

Main support for longs is at 1459-56 area.

If after breaching 1460, the market is unable to rise above 1466 I would need to reject the bullish case temporarily and expect further move down.