2013-03-08

$ES_F : 1541 - 1551 : Market Recap

Employment numbers surprise on the upside.


New high for current bull market. Trend remains bullish.


After a consolidation day yesterday, today was bit different and saw nice two way energy and confirmed the bullish set-up once again. Here is 5 minute chart of today's day session.



I came in the day bullish as per this trade plan. Overnight the markets were bullish and looking to open strong after employment numbers surprised on the positive side.  After opening strongly gap up on good volume, however the market mood changed immediately after first 5 minute of trade and market quickly dropped into expected 1541-1538 support zone and further down. This move down was sharp and sudden and without any rally in between so it seemed like (without the benefit of hindsight) that it could very well be rejection of the day session high. I was filled on all my levels shown by green arrows.With that set-up I came in the "alert" mode and was looking to exit most of my positions near the day session mid and a move to VWAP. I got the first opportunity when the markets traded near the day session mid (fifth red arrow) and I exiting 75% of my position leaving the stops on rest on day session low. At this time a minor short set-up was also in play. However after hesitating a little near the day session mid point and VWAP shown by grey oval, markets broke higher and the minor short set-up was rejected. This allowed me to move stops to my remaining position to break even. Since I bought the position near the day session low, I am planning to keep it overnight with break even stops and manage it as a swing trade. Markets continued to grind higher rest of the day on low volumes and appear to be closing near highs. The comments section of the trade plan describes the trades.
So what do I see now? Market has completed measured move rally from the June 2012 low but there is a good chance it could break higher and make attempts as all time high which is like a magnet now. A reaction of magnitude will start once the bullish energy is absorbed.

I completed MSFT and TOL positions in my stock portfolio. I have also started adding MCD, and FNFG My portfolio is still now minor long. GOOG hit my projected target (though I went out bit early).

Day session range was 10pt and overall range was 13 pt.