2013-03-21

$ES_F : 1552 - 1542 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI


Cautiously Bearish. 

Cyprus is not fully priced in I feel.


The news from Cyprus is not improving. Today ECB threatened to pull liquidity by 25th March thereby putting a firm deadline for the Cyprus to act. In return Cyprus govt postponed vote on the plan B and announced that deposit levy is not in consideration. Russia is now playing in EU politics and I would not be surprised if this results into some new conflict as well. Germany and Russia are not the best of friends after all. The Cyprus defiance is prompting Greece to rebel against the bailout terms. British savers are fretting about their savings. The banks in Cyprus have not opened for a week now. Merchants are refusing credit card payments. Cash is running short. RAF plane is in Cyprus with cash for British personnel. We have not seen such events in a long time. We can put all our trust in politicians to resolve the issues and keep buying with both hands OR we can take stock of the situation and exercise caution. May be EU will relent and renegotiate and send a bundle of cash for bail-out without demanding bail-in. May be Russia will step up to the plate and bail out an old friend in return for military and gas exploration rights. May be AAPL will buy Cyprus island with all the excess cash sitting on its books. Who knows. May be Cyprus will leave Euro all together and go in the arms of Russia. Market is paying no attention to this event so far and going up in stride. Is this a bull trap? Is this a sign of strength of the market? I do not know. All I can see is that markets are bullish and short set-up is again broken. However I am really cautious on long side today until weekend. I will keep a keen eye on news from Europe until the mess is resolved.


Today again I would expect to find support at 1542-40 area building a move up to 1550-52 area. A likely attempt to new highs is possible but I would expect resistance to build up.

My hypothetical stock portfolio is flat as of now with short balancing longs and has done good so far since I started maintaining it. BBRY long has performed extremely well so far followed by AMZN short. 

The trend is still bullish and calling tops is futile. However please have a look at this post from longer term perspective which is keeping me cautious at these levels. The flip flop market action is also signalling a caution. An escalation of Cyprus crisis will certain pull back these markets.