2013-03-21

$ES_F : 1542-1552 : Market Recap


Bears are back in town.

Flip Flop continues. Caution required.


Finally it appears the markets are catching up with the reality in rest of the word. The Cyprus situation is escalating and I cringe just to watch it on TV. No credit cards, no electronic transactions, cash only deals, withdrawal limit on ATMs, banks closed till next week. This is not the environment for bull market highs. The bullish set-up is once again broken and market continued its flip flop move. My experience tells me that this is start of key moments for markets because such flip flop shows markets is struggling to find a direction and it usually marks a trend change. If I am reading right, move towards 1500 has started. Here is the 5 minute chart of today's day session....



I came in the day cautiously bearish as per this trade plan. Market opened weak and I was expecting a move first up to gap fill up before dropping. However markets touched the expected day session low much early in the day. I was not prepared to take long positions given my cautiously bearish bias today. However it turned out to be first mistake and markets headed immediately higher to make day session highs near 1549. The move up was not strong so I was prepared to short the market and got my entry at 1547.25 first red arrow. I was expecting VWAP to break but it didn't so I lost patience and exited at 1545.75 second green arrow. However as soon as I did, market dropped and went all the way to 1536.5 and I missed the whole move. A lots of lessons but not much to show for today. Markets eventually faded VWAP once again and closed near the lows of the day. You can see the trades and comments here.

I think a move to 1500 has started. 1505-1510 is possible support area.

I continue to keep my stock portfolio flattish and looking for good shorts.