$AAPL : Don't count on the boom from the cash pile.

Why AAPL cash pile will not be enough to bring it to former glory.

How AAPL is a "value" stock and not a "growth" play. 

Disclosure : Last legs of shorts running on trailing stops as per this post.

After a record quarter last night and subsequent after hour crash of nearly 10% (I see a quote of 464 just now, having touched a low of 457 earlier) it is not entirely surprising that the internet and social streams are filled with $AAPL news. Visit social sites for traders and you are bound to find many traders and investors plainly disgusted and disappointed with the results so far. AAPL is present in almost every single active trading account in US. It has long been a hedge fund darling for sometime and main driver of alpha (over performance over benchmark) and therefore a source of popular trade - long AAPL short SPX. This trade is unwinding for a long time.

$ES_F : 1484-1494 : Market Recap

Bullish theme continues. Watch for fatigue.

Markets moved up on very low volume and managed to establish a new high overnight.

As per this trade plan I came in the day with bullish set-up, even though the markets are showing signs of fatigue on resistance levels. Today was again a very low volume session indicating some fatigue building up on resistance levels. Till now there is only one 5 minute bar with 40,000 emini contracts. VIX spot was once again under pressure making a new lows and but 3 m spread is flattening slightly to 2.90 after debt ceiling can was kicked down the road. After making overnight new high of 1491.25, markets had a bearish bias at open and an overnight intra day short set-up was in play so I was expecting markets to trade in 1484/82 support zone before a long side move starts. However the selling stopped at 1484.5 two ticks above minor support and the subsequent reaction tested the failure of the intra day short set-up. I made a low conviction call to expect that low of the day is in at 1484.50 via this comment.

$ES_F : 1484-1494 : Expected day session range for EMINI

Long set-up still in play but nearing resistance.

Bullish until trend change. 1500-1520 in sight.

Broader US markets are basking in their new found glory. Russell-2000 is at all time high, that is higher than dot com, higher than 2007 peak, higher than anything it has been in its history. DowJones and SPX are not far behind. The earning season has started on positive note with GOOG and IBM reporting good results and all eyes are on AAPL tonight after close. It seems investors are more optimistic than economists this time and the trend firmly remains on long side. The next target area of 1500-1520 is in sight now however the markets are looking overbought and ripe for a pull-back or correction. Still there is no point in fighting the tape and until a short set-up holds for more than one day, it pays to buy the dips with caution.

Today I would expect 1484-82 as initial area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are:

$ES_F : 1473-1483 : Expected day session range for EMINI

Long set-up still in play.

Attempt at new highs. Bullish.

After the holiday markets are likely to find support at 1473-76 and build next move up. Top of the breakout range at 1468 is support. The long set-up was confirmed on Friday. Possible resistance is in 1486-88 area after which 1500-1520 is next target.

Today I would expect 1476-73 as area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors affecting the rally are

$ES_F : 1473-1483 : Expected day session range for emini

Chance for longs to confirm the set-up.

Attempt at new highs. Bullish.

Markets are likely to find support at 1473 and build next move up. Markets have finally broken out of the range and now the top of the range at 1468 is support. To continue the bullish set-up a confirmation is needed today otherwise the break would seem a false breakout. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.

Today I would expect 1473-70 as area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. Factors supporting the rally are

$ES_F : 1467-1477 : Expected day session range for emini

EDIT - As per this comment the range was revised to 1470-1480.

No resolution No direction. Might as well copy paste previous post.

Potential attempt at highs. Cautiously Bullish.

It is incredible (but not unseen/unheard of) for SPX to get stuck in a tight range putting in doji like crosses every day. Close to Close SPX has barely moved a 0.43 points (not %) in last 5 sessions. Trading is still range based in 1460-70 area and a breakout from this zone is needed for further direction. My reading or facebook activities have increased while these markets churn. Apologies to friends whose timelines I am flooding. So far the short set-ups which had emerged have been broken so a new one need to emerge and hold before a sustained trend change can be called. Long set-ups are in play but they are hitting resistance in 1468-70 area. Having held its ground, I expect the next move could be to make next attempt at multi year highs at 1479-77 area as first target. Down side possibility of a move to 1446 (19th Dec top) or even 1436 area remains on card if support breaks. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.

Today I would expect 1467-65 as area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. The concern for rally remain the same (again):

On Lighter Note $LOL

When there is not much to do

We can at least laugh.

How do you know market is trading against you?

Place a limit order. If its filled you are on wrong side. (lol)

Keep reading the comments and feel free to add. Lets bring a smile on our faces.
Subscribe to email updates on comment streams to receive updates.

$ES_F : 1458-1470 expected day session range for emini.

Still a tug of war between long and short. Flip Flop days!

Potential attempt at highs. Cautiously Bullish.

Markets are still settled in the narrow range but keeping that bullish posture on daily time frame. Current markets are difficult to trade and best watched for developing set up and catching up with reading or facebook. So far the short set-ups which had emerged have been broken so a new one need to emerge and hold before a sustained trend change can be called. The trading is bit conviction less choppy and lacking energy for sometime. Having held its ground, I expect the next move could be to make next attempt at multi year highs at 1479-77 area as first target. Down side possibility of a move to 1446 (19th Dec top) or even 1436 area remains on card if support breaks. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.

Today I would expect 1458-59 as area of support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. The concern for rally remain the same:

$GC_F : Bullish set-up in making

Tentative long set-up appears to be in making

Cautiously long, expecting a break above 1720-30 for safe long.

Here is a weekly chart for Gold continuous futures. Those who follow gold closely, know that it is in a painful range for more than a year after hitting all time high in 1923 area. The ranges are very difficult to trade for trend followers and price action is choppy and churning, resulting in many bad trades or scratch trades and eventually everyone throws in the towel before a move develops out of the range. Gold has been in 1800-1500 range for more than a year now (yellow dashed lines). 

$ES_F : 1464-1452 expected day session range

Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P500 futures

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bearish.

Markets have been in bullish stance since start of new year but lately they settled into very narrow conviction less range at resistance level. Last session was the first such session where an ongoing short set-up from 1466 was not broken and in the overnight session it met its target at 1457.75. This certainly does not mean start of a bear market BUT it certainly is a sign that a correction is due in next few trading sessions possibly a move 1446 (19th Dec top) or even 1436 area. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.

Today I would expect 1463-66 as area of resistance. Futures are pointing to a gap down so there is a good chance we might not even reach there. I will update the comments section as the day develops. The concern for rally remain the same:

$ES_F : 1459-1470 expected day session range

Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P500 futures

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bullish.

Markets have been maintaining their bullish stance but in a very narrow range. So far it appears that the control is in the hands of longs and therefore any pull-back is being bought however there has not been a high energy breakout on upside. Given that markets are at multi year high a pull back to 1450 area is warranted before next up move can be built. If the upward momentum can be maintained, 1500-1526 is next target area for emini.

Today I would expect 1456-58 area acting as support and 1461-63 area as minor support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. However the following are some concerns.

Blog Redesign

New look blog!

Result of accident !

I had to make changes to my blog template. I was playing around with some set-up on a lazy Sunday and inadvertently managed to make some changes which made the existing blog out of shape. I tried to restore back up templates, tried to edit the HTML/XML templates and many other technological tricks but to no avail. In the end I decided to slap a brand new template "Dynamic Views" and re-done some of my customisation.

However I am sure, I will discover some missing links/features as days progress. If you were a reader of the blog, please have a look and comment if any of the features you used earlier are not working and I will do my best to restore them, if I can.

Also while you are at it, please comment on the new look if it is any better. I am assuming the new template is better suited for mobile devices.

Many thanks for visiting.

VS

$AAPL – 480-460 next target

Short setup is still in play

Disclosure : Last set of shorts remaining on trailing stops.

AAPL seems to be losing its magic. Since hitting all time high at 705, the stock is lagging the broader market. Technically the charts have turned bearish with the stock well below its 200 DMA. On relative strength basis too the stock is lagging with broader market putting an impressive rally since 31st December 2012 but AAPL has already given up all the up move from that day. There was a time when AAPL was a key stock for “alpha” – to catch market out performance and several traders used to be long AAPL and short S&P as hedge. Those trades are underwater for sometime.

Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with AAPL. In fact AMZN is making new highs on lousy fundamentals but hey – who said stock markets are “rational”.
With AAPL likely to close below 522 today, the short setup is still firmly remains in play even though AAPL is currently trading in strong long term support area and merits a caution in carrying large positions. 507 area has acted as strong support in past but at the same time its been attacked vigorously and each bounce has produced lower highs, increasing the probability that next attack at support is likely to breach.
As long as AAPL is below 550-560 area, shorts are safe and next target for profit taking on shorts is 480-460 region. For a long side, one of the on going short setup needs to break first before fresh new long positions can be created. May be earnings on 24th Jan can create such catalyst. Who knows.

$ES_F : 1463-1475 expected day session range.

Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P 500 futures.

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bullish.

Markets finally managed to break above the resistance zone yesterday and so far have managed to take a peak above in overnight session. So far the control still seems to be in the hands of the bulls and we can see 1500-1526 area in due course. For today I would expect 1463-1461 providing support and if that support is held, market moving up to 1475 area or higher. However the following are some concerns.

$ES_F : 1456-66 expected day session range

Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P 500 futures.

Bullish side to assert once again to breach resistance at 1460 area. 

I am still pretty occupied to devote to full time trading but I have started analysing the markets regularly. Since the new year/fiscal cliff resolution drama, the markets have set-up strongly on upside and provided the momentum can be maintained going forward, 1500-1526 looks like a reasonable target for the long side. Two things makes me cautious on long side however are