2013-02-14

$ES_F : 1517-1507 : Expected Day Session Range for EMINI

Overnight short set-up played in full.


Today is first day for shorts to follow through.


Looks like the market darling is not happy on this Valentine day. Japan remain mired in recession. Even in Eurozone French and German economies contracted. Currency War is on and everyone is trying to talk their currencies down. And eventually ES made overnight low of 1510 confirming one full run of the short set-up I had pointed out in my last night's market recap. Now it is follow through time. If the shorts can keep this market below 1519 and close near lows of 1507, we can possibly have first confirmed short set-up. Hence I am cautiously bearish today. Today I would expect resistance in 1517-1519 area. I will update the comments section as the day develops.

I have meanwhile start establishing my hypothetical stock portfolio. Please comment and discuss your views and suggest any additions there. I have added CSCO recently on long side. I am looking at some other positions to create a balanced portfolio.


Today my initial bet would be for finding resistance at 1516-1517 to hold leading to a move down to 1507. I would expect low of day in the region of 1508-07 area given 9 -10 point expected range. 1514-15 is area of minor resistance. If the break below 1508 is sustained, we can call a confirmed short set-up. Please note these are just times for caution for long and not time for a full blown short position. The major trend is still long (which has hit a resistance area). Any trade on counter trend side would need to be quick and determined by intra day movements.

If market starts breaching 1508 I would need to reject the bullish case temporarily and expect further move down.