2013-02-19

$ES_F : 1516-1525 : Market Recap

Another New High 1528.75.

Bullish set-up continues.


Markets made a strong start after holiday and right from open. Even Obama speaking caused only couple of points drop. Looks like this market has discounted every bearish indicator. Here is the 5 min day session chart for E-Mini.



I came in the day cautiously bullish as per this trade plan. Overnight markets were bullish and acting in line with long set-up. Markets opened strongly and did not fill gap and kept moving higher from open on good volume. It was clear stops above 1422 were triggered evident from on high volume and soon NYSE TICK registered high tick along with then high of the market at 1424.75. Usually such activity typically creates a small pull back and I was expecting the gap to be filled along with drop to expected support level. Once market started stalling near the highs, I took a cautious short (first red arrow) towards support via this comment. Market gave me first warning that I was wrong by making new high at 1425. Eventually market dropped below VWAP but found support and I exited this position at second green arrow as mentioned here. Market eventually made new highs at 1528.75 and has been trading above day session mid, indicating a strong bullish set-up. Even the customary gravitation to VWAP did not happen in the day session.
Volume has been low except near key points indicating neither buyers not sellers are interested in this market.

So what do I see now? The major long trend is not broken. Market has not traded to its VWAP and now 1525-1522 is area of support. A possible move to 1540s area is underway.

I have taken a cautious short in AAPL in my stock portfolio.

Day session range was 9 pt + gap and overall range has been 13pt.