2008-09-21

Trade Ideas 22nd September


GBPJPY


SELL 198/200/202 STOP above 215 TARGET 160/150/140 by March 2009.

It would be a bold prediction to say that I am looking at GBPJPY to trade at 161-142 by March 2009 but that is what I am looking at. GBP will be the worst currency to hold in 2008-2009 as UK has bigger issues compared to US and soon the world will start realising that. UK might end up as first currency to go in recessaion amongst G8. So I am looking to sell any rallies at 198/200/202 levels with stops above 215. Now considering this is a very wide stop, the size of the trade will be accordingly small and this is a very long term trade (nearly 8 months). Once confirmation is received that current rally is over (break below 187) I will become more aggressive in being a seller and moving stops down.


AUDUSD

SELL 84/86/88/90/92 STOP above 93 TARGET 62 by March 2009

The commodity bubble is busting and will start deflating sharply and AUD will be affected in a great way. The interest rates are on decline and will continue to be so. I am looking to sell rallies all the way up to 92 if we get there with stops above 93. This also makes this a high risk trade and therefore appropriate small sized "probes" will be required. Once the down trend is confirmed by break of 79, I will be more aggressive in selling and also will have move stops down.

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-VS