2008-09-21

Weekend after the regulators paniced

Extraordinary times required extraordinary measures! Certainly the times are extraordinary but is it governments business to intervene directly in the functioning markets. By preventing short selling of stocks the regulators might have been able to create a much required bear squeeze and they might end up punishing some hedge funds and short sellers. But will that solve the problem? Will RTC style vehicle solve the problems plaguing the financial markets? Well the answers will not be known for some time. Though it can provide some sort of floor to the markets (sellers will be reluctant to bet against fed and I am not sure there are many buyers out there after the short squeeze if finished). The upside is limited until I can clearly see recovery sign in economy. Markets lead economic indicators so any "possibility" of economy recovering might signal the end of the current bear markets BUT I think so far the bear market has not played out fully and at any sign of current bet by Fed and Treasury failing, the bottom will fall, buyers will drop the bids and we can see the fearsome bear again!

S&P ESZ8
The 2 day up move can be a change of direction OR a time to sell once again. I am looking for sign of weakness to initiate short positions but will be a nimble scalper on the buy side if the squeeze continues. Don't fall in love with the upside is still the motto!

WTI CLX8
Oil has rebounded sharply after hitting lows. The upside seems temporary though. I am looking to sell 105 - 107 area with stops above 110 and looking for further downside in the 80 - 90 region.

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-VS