2009-05-27

HOME WORKS (MAY 2009)

General Markets


I usually do not trade markets for purely day trade basis. But I like to analyse the markets after close. After discussion with some fellow traders, I thought about writing the homework here (as comment to this post). This would keep a record as well as enable other traders to put their homeworks too. 

Happy trading.

VS

4 comments:

  1. for - 28/05/2009
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    Unemployment claim and Durable Goods are key numbers. So far the market seems to be climbing the wall of worry. The worry therefore is how long can it continue. If the unemployment claims continue to decline, that can signal that worst is behind us and the bull run can continue. However many markets have come in a key junctute that it could be a good idea to step back for the setup to buildup.

    NQ:
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    There is a sideways channel which has been tested on both sides. Minor swing day in play today. The first trade would be to play like a swing day. Sell 1413.75, stop above 1428.75 target 1379 - 1347 in extreme case. if 1389 - 79 acts as support (being middle of the range), NQ is still bullish and should aim for 1495 in near term.

    ES:
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    There is some sign of tiredness. There is strong resistance at 932 level which is still not breached significantly. 895 - 890 is support for recent rally after holiday which is broken. I would actually not trade ES but instead watch if 901/904 area act as resistence to take a cautious short targetting 876. Breaching 876 could also signal end of the uptrend temporarily. For bullish case, need to see breach of 932.

    ZB:
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    Bonds have broken down sharply for 4 straight days. First trade could be to take a cautious short on 50% retracement at 115 19-23 with stop over 117 target 113 22/112 22 level. Most longer term projections on Bonds are met so one should be careful of reversals on Bonds.

    EC:
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    Seems to be forming another bull flag. A patient trade would be to buy 1.3734 stop below 1.36 and target new highs above 1.4048 on 50% retracement of flag pole. This trade can run until weekend.

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  2. For the trading day May 25, 2009:

    ES:

    Wait and see how everything reacts. at the bottom of the channel currently, see if it holds. I am focusing on NQ trade seems to be a better setup, or at least one I understand.

    NQ:

    I agree with everything said, my HW came up with swing day, but be careful due to bullish indicators. Sell 1410-1414, stop above 1428, target 1368, res 1377.

    EC:

    Didn't even look at your #'s prior to my levels, but I would have had that 1.3736 level as a buy with a stop around 1.3620's. With a short term target at 1.4159.

    ZC:

    Watch list. It looks like it has created a triple top (Oct 30th, Jan 6th, May 20th) with all indicators bullish. I think corn needs to reset these indicators with a pullback before it's run up. Looking for support in the 407 area.

    Thanks for posting your HW, I am game for this nightly if you are. It helps me a ton knowing where others are looking and what they are looking at.

    UY's

    CK

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  3. 29th May 2009
    End of month window dressing could be on card. It could be bullish if people try to balance their portfolios. Lot of people were burnt by sell in May call and might want to jump back.

    GDP numbers can throw a spanner in the bull party if they are bad. Considering markets are taking a pause seems to indicate that this news could be unreliable. So worth watching. However any good news on GDP front indicating a turn around would boost the markets and push the bonds down further.

    NQ:
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    Appears to be strongest of the lot. Still above 200EMA and near the top of the horizontal range. A breakout should be on card and possibly on upside. A good buy place for me is 1385, being middle of range. Initial bias is to be long NQ.

    Buy 1410.50 - 1406 with defence around 1402.
    Stop below 1397 (below 1402 I would start looking to exit longs on next retracement up after defence)
    Target 1467-1480, 1430/1434 as first res.

    ES:
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    NQ leadership does not seem to be rubbing off ES. It is right in the middle of the short term trading range (930 - 880). It could be better to leave ES alone until a direction is found. Bias is still long. Cautious long, esp if NQ showing strength

    Buy 900.50-897.50 894 as defence.
    Hard stop below 886. Below 894, look for exit long on next retracement up.
    Target 936.5, 912-914 as first res.


    ZB:
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    ZBU9 - SEP contract.

    ZB are consolidating after the sharp fall. Better to stay out. Bias short. 118'03 119'01 is good area for next short as a watch list.

    GC:
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    GCZ9 - DEC contract.
    GC is knocking on the tripple top, usually resulting in a boom up. 3..2..1...blast off. Since I already have good long term position in GC, I may pass it but a cautious long can be

    Buy 959.5-956.5
    Stop below 950
    Target 981-1001 with 973 as first res.

    EC:
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    Another bull flag appears ready.

    Buy : 1.3888 - 1.3864. 1.3740 defence.
    Stop: below 1.3720. Below 1.3740 look for exit longs on next retracement up.
    Target: 1.4098-1.4123. 1.4034 as res.

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  4. For the trading day May 26, 2009:

    For the record I always do my HW prior to looking at your numbers so I do not cloud my own.

    ES: I put weight in ES only due to NQ being the leader at the moment. I am a buyer at 898-896 with stops below 886. Target at 928 with resistance at 914-915. Still in a sideways zone so quick with my profits today.

    NQ: Buy 1410, stop below 1389, target 1436 res in the 1324 area.

    EC: My comfort level due to risk is in ES & NQ, but I see what looks like a bull flag setting up. This would be the 3rd flag I have seen since march and the 2nd to occur in May. (Please correct me if I’m wrong).

    I am under the belief that the power of three is great and carries a better strength to the formation. I have a little lower buy level, but due to my inexperience and comfort level. I would buy at 1.3832, stop around 1.3722, target near term 1.4040 and res at 1.3920. I think I see where you came up with 1.3888 level and do feel comfortable with it.

    UY’s
    CK

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-VS