2008-10-16

TRADE UPDATE: Looking for bottom in an abyss

My Development as a Commodities Trader: Looking for bottom in an abyss

With recent price action, I feel we have found a short term bottom in the indices markets and we have reached a turning point. I am taking 865 and 837 as bottom for S&P and trading from the long side. I expect bounce up to 1150 - 1200 region (one of my projection is 1445 but I would not hang my hat on that one so early). Break below 865 will be warning sign and close below 837 will derail this analysis.

To limit risk I have taken certain option positions in line with this analysis. A good combo is to sell 3 x Dec 850 PUT, Buy 3x 800 Put and buy 1x 1050, 1150 and 1250 calls. Once the trade moves in the right direction, one can easily convert the calls into butterfly and close the puts. Futures position can be added on long side with stop below 865/837 area.

Price levels are based upon ESZ8 (December E-Mini S&P 500) future and not cash level.

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-VS