2010-08-06

2010 – The year of Forex?

Will smiling US Dollar dominate most of 2010

UPDATE : 6th Aug 2010 - I was simply adjusting border on the picture and this post has come up on top. This is nearly 7 month old post and please read it accordingly.

USD appears to be smiling again. Dollar smile theory, as per Stephen Jen, predicts gains for the greenback during times when the U.S. economy is either in a deep slump or growing strongly, and underperformance for the dollar during times of moderate growth. Now I am not sure which part of the smile Dollar is moving now but I sense that a trend change is emerging for US Dollar against major pairs and 2010 can be the year the dollar shines again. 2010 could also be the year dominated by foreign exchange markets. The bonds markets are played by central banks and equity markets are not going anywhere.
USD had been a short play for most of 2009 but lately USD appears to have formed a bottom against all major currencies and made impressive first wave highs. Now the question is – is this due to year end covering into USD positions OR a major shift coming. Strangely enough, I do not see much fundamental reason other than massive short position in USD to back this strength in USD. But Oscar has always said that fundamentals always come out in the charts first and as the charts are today, USD is going up.
So how to setup trades for this scenario? I will be looking to buy breakouts from highs for USD (or low for other pair) with stops 3 – 4 Average True Range. I will also look to buy pullbacks in USD (or sell rallies for other pair) at key retracement levels with stops below lows (above high in case of other pair). I will update further on the trades as they develop.