2009-04-07

British Pound has something going on!

BP/6BM9 Globex or GBPUSD

Buy up to 1.4450 Stop 1.4100 Target 1.5850 - 1.7320

British Pound was turning out to be the worst currency (and worst economy) in the developed world. The deficits are comparable to Hungary which had to go out cap in hand to IMF and there were intense speculations as if the same fate would be met by British economy as well in not so distant future. So I was bit surprised to see that BP chart has started showing quite a lot of strentgh lately. OK, some part of that run up is due to general Dollar weakness but BP has performed strongly against EUR and YEN as well and also other currencies. Could it be return of carry trade? Dont think so. GBP barely offers any decent interest rates compared to YEN and unlike AUD/ZAR - we do not produce much commodities so it could not be inflation and run up in basic metals story. So what is GBP charts saying which is not yet out in news? Short covering - may be and in which case the rally will die after some chop around without significant breakout from current levels. 

One reason could be that may be just may be Bank of England will start putting breaks on the quantitative easing and interst rate cuts (not much to cut anyway). Inflation in UK has remained stubbornly high and any sign that BOE is getting concerned about the inflation may squeeze GBP shorts for some time. Also signs of recovery in world economy would depress dollar and unlike EUR, GBP does not have to bother about Eastern Europe problems. So whatever are the reasons, it would come out soon. As of now the chart looks bullish and worth a punt on GBP long for sometime.

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-VS