$ES_F : 1464-1452 expected day session range

Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P500 futures

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bearish.

Markets have been in bullish stance since start of new year but lately they settled into very narrow conviction less range at resistance level. Last session was the first such session where an ongoing short set-up from 1466 was not broken and in the overnight session it met its target at 1457.75. This certainly does not mean start of a bear market BUT it certainly is a sign that a correction is due in next few trading sessions possibly a move 1446 (19th Dec top) or even 1436 area. If markets show sign of strength in support regions, the next move to 1500-1526 area can begin.

Today I would expect 1463-66 as area of resistance. Futures are pointing to a gap down so there is a good chance we might not even reach there. I will update the comments section as the day develops. The concern for rally remain the same:

$ES_F : 1459-1470 expected day session range

Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P500 futures

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bullish.

Markets have been maintaining their bullish stance but in a very narrow range. So far it appears that the control is in the hands of longs and therefore any pull-back is being bought however there has not been a high energy breakout on upside. Given that markets are at multi year high a pull back to 1450 area is warranted before next up move can be built. If the upward momentum can be maintained, 1500-1526 is next target area for emini.

Today I would expect 1456-58 area acting as support and 1461-63 area as minor support. I will update the comments section as the day develops. However the following are some concerns.

Blog Redesign

New look blog!

Result of accident !

I had to make changes to my blog template. I was playing around with some set-up on a lazy Sunday and inadvertently managed to make some changes which made the existing blog out of shape. I tried to restore back up templates, tried to edit the HTML/XML templates and many other technological tricks but to no avail. In the end I decided to slap a brand new template "Dynamic Views" and re-done some of my customisation.

However I am sure, I will discover some missing links/features as days progress. If you were a reader of the blog, please have a look and comment if any of the features you used earlier are not working and I will do my best to restore them, if I can.

Also while you are at it, please comment on the new look if it is any better. I am assuming the new template is better suited for mobile devices.

Many thanks for visiting.

VS

$AAPL – 480-460 next target

Short setup is still in play

Disclosure : Last set of shorts remaining on trailing stops.

AAPL seems to be losing its magic. Since hitting all time high at 705, the stock is lagging the broader market. Technically the charts have turned bearish with the stock well below its 200 DMA. On relative strength basis too the stock is lagging with broader market putting an impressive rally since 31st December 2012 but AAPL has already given up all the up move from that day. There was a time when AAPL was a key stock for “alpha” – to catch market out performance and several traders used to be long AAPL and short S&P as hedge. Those trades are underwater for sometime.

Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with AAPL. In fact AMZN is making new highs on lousy fundamentals but hey – who said stock markets are “rational”.
With AAPL likely to close below 522 today, the short setup is still firmly remains in play even though AAPL is currently trading in strong long term support area and merits a caution in carrying large positions. 507 area has acted as strong support in past but at the same time its been attacked vigorously and each bounce has produced lower highs, increasing the probability that next attack at support is likely to breach.
As long as AAPL is below 550-560 area, shorts are safe and next target for profit taking on shorts is 480-460 region. For a long side, one of the on going short setup needs to break first before fresh new long positions can be created. May be earnings on 24th Jan can create such catalyst. Who knows.

$ES_F : 1463-1475 expected day session range.

Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P 500 futures.

Markets at Multi Year high can bring some pull-back. Cautiously bullish.

Markets finally managed to break above the resistance zone yesterday and so far have managed to take a peak above in overnight session. So far the control still seems to be in the hands of the bulls and we can see 1500-1526 area in due course. For today I would expect 1463-1461 providing support and if that support is held, market moving up to 1475 area or higher. However the following are some concerns.

$ES_F : 1456-66 expected day session range

Expected regular trading session range for e-mini S&P 500 futures.

Bullish side to assert once again to breach resistance at 1460 area. 

I am still pretty occupied to devote to full time trading but I have started analysing the markets regularly. Since the new year/fiscal cliff resolution drama, the markets have set-up strongly on upside and provided the momentum can be maintained going forward, 1500-1526 looks like a reasonable target for the long side. Two things makes me cautious on long side however are

#NOGUNS : Will you do something – Give Up Right to Keep and Bear Arms?

To ensure that those children did not die in vain will you voluntarily give up the right to keep and bear arms?

I am a trader and normally I write about trading, markets and investments. But something happened on Friday 14th December 2012 which has affected me deeply. To realise that 26 people, mostly children as young as 6 have lost their life just because someone had suffered a bout of burning rage and he could lay his hands on most sophisticated killing weapons to remove his rage on innocent children, made me shocked and sick.

Is $AAPL ripe for another bite on long side?

Does the turn around from 507 area signifies a trend change?

Disclosure : No position now but on watch for long.
EDIT 14.Dec.2012: The long set up in AAPL did not play out. As mentioned in comments below, the trend is still short.

I am not a stock trader but I do dabble into some popular US stocks from time to time with small position as a proxy for broader market investor sentiment. I have mainly traded AAPL from short side for sometime with reasonable success. Of course, there will be charts on internet which will show that $10,000 invested in AAPL 10 year ago would have been $667,000 by now. Well hind sight is beautiful, but neither was I trading 10 years ago nor did I have $10,000 to invest/trade.
Before the option expiry on 16th November 2012, I have been commenting about a lot of puts being purchased on AAPL to protect from downside. AAPL was in down trend since 25th September 2012 after hitting its all time high and progressively the options skews were indicating that lot of protection being bought.

$AMZN : An Amazing Short

Is this another bubble collapsing?

Disclosure : I have a small short via ITM puts.

Recently a friend of mine mentioned AMZN on one of my facebook post about AAPL. I do not trade stocks much and I am certainly not an stock analyst nor do I “trade” on longer term views. However the conversation made me do a very basic research on AMZN. In short this is what I find:

• AMZN annual revenue growth is about 40% per year based on last 3 years. On trailing 4 quarters basis it has flat lined and annual revenue growth rate is expected to be 20%-25%year on year. i.e. TOP LINE is not growing as fast as people expect(ed).
• AMZN net profits after all mumbo jumbo are flat to declining for last 3 years. On trailing 4 quarters basis, they are declining. i.e. BOTTOM LINE is under pressure.
• On trailing 12 months basis, the shares are trading on an amazing 2500+ PE. Even on Forward Earning estimate basis the shares are trading on 100+ PE.

Source Yahoo Finance

$AAPL - Another day another support broken

550 Support is now broken.... 520-500 is next possible area to watch.

The trend remains firmly short for the stock market darling $AAPL. In some sense, the success of the company has somehow become the curse for it. On fundamental ground there are still some good reasons to buy AAPL given the cash pile, low forward earning multiple and the relentless growth story. However nothing can go on increasing at exponential pace, except Fed balance sheet :-). AAPL as a stock is present in practically every US investor account including leveraged to the hilt hedge funds. Also it would be one of the few things showing healthy profit if it was bought at good time - something which can be liquidated easily in case of the dreaded margin call. Being high beta, it has been a popular proxy stock for chasing market performance. So when the time to exit comes, the exodus is not expected to be smooth.

Testing 1…2…3 Testing …

 

It has been such a long time away from here that it feels like eternity. But looks like I will be coming back soon with analysis, home work and other comments and information.

After the earthquake

After the nuclear plant explosions, as a sharp expected reaction, prices of Uranium have dropped drastically - looks like Uranium is becoming too hot to handle commodity. That can mean so many things - for many "politically correct" govts, it could mean putting new plant construction to back burner. Putting pressure on companies and supply chain of nuclear industry and possibly forcing some "on the fence" guys to break rank and deal with "rogue" govts like Iran who can get the fuel and technology on the cheap.
Meanwhile the energy needs dont seem to be going down anytime soon and thereby more "clean coal" and "gas" based power until the global warming/climate change issue heats up some other debate.
Stocks markets world over have gone into risk off mode and many expectation of interest rate rise in Europe and UK have been pushed back. Commodities have corrected sharply down.This could be the event which can induce the trend change.

Home Works (February 2011)

General Markets

This new year stared with a busy travel schedule for me preventing me from doing any serious trading. I hardly traded during January 2011 and it looks as if February is not going to be much different. Whatever little I traded provided below average and below median returns and another positive return making it 20th green month in a row for the homework book. Current median return on assumed 2 contract lot basis is $2,033 and current mean return on assumed 2 contract lot basis is $4,019. Click here for HW Trades result on 2 contract lot basis so far.***

I have added a page for FAQ on the blog page as well as a page for HW book trades. Please comment if there are any questions you might have. Also provide suggestions for any other improvements to the blog. Or we can interact via my Facebook page.

The new homework page is here. The links have been updated on the site. Please remember to post your comments on this page. Also please remember to subscribe to comments via email on this page if you have been a passive follower. Please click here for more information on email subscription. You can also subscribe to all comments on the site by adding http://feeds.feedburner.com/vs-trader-comments RSS feed to your favourite reader like Google reader.

Happy trading.

VS

*** for the sake of disclosure, this performance is calculated on 2 lot basis trading my Homework and should not be used as a reflection of my trading OR my account size/position size. I take all my Homework trades but in position size consistent with my risk capital.

- (c) author(s) of http://vs-trader.blogspot.com

Home Works (January 2011)

General Markets

Happy new year. Time to take account of the year and plan for the next one. I did not trade most of second half of December 2010 due to my holidays. Whatever little I traded provided below average and below median returns and another positive return making it 19th green month in a row for the homework book. Current median return on assumed 2 contract lot basis is $2,525 and current mean return on assumed 2 contract lot basis is $4,205. The home work results page is consolidated to carry forward 2010 trades so that 2011 trades can be recorded. If anyone is looking for details of the old trades in 2010 and 2009, please let me know via comments. Click here for HW Trades result on 2 contract lot basis so far.***

I have added a page for FAQ on the blog page as well as a page for HW book trades. Please comment if there are any questions you might have. Also provide suggestions for any other improvements to the blog. Or we can interact via my Facebook page.

The new homework page is here. The links have been updated on the site. Please remember to post your comments on this page. Also please remember to subscribe to comments via email on this page if you have been a passive follower. Please click here for more information on email subscription. You can also subscribe to all comments on the site by adding http://feeds.feedburner.com/vs-trader-comments RSS feed to your favourite reader like Google reader.

Happy trading.

VS

*** for the sake of disclosure, this performance is calculated on 2 lot basis trading my Homework and should not be used as a reflection of my trading OR my account size/position size. I take all my Homework trades but in position size consistent with my risk capital.

- (c) author(s) of http://vs-trader.blogspot.com

Home Works (December 2010)

General Markets

How time flies! I cannot believe it is already approaching end of another year. November provided below average but above median returns and another positive return making it 18th green month in a row for the homework book. Current median return on assumed 2 contract lot basis is $2,623 and current mean return on assumed 2 contract lot basis is $4,388. Click here for HW Trades result on 2 contract lot basis so far.***

I have added a page for FAQ on the blog page as well as a page for HW book trades. Please comment if there are any questions you might have. Also provide suggestions for any other improvements to the blog. Or we can interact via my Facebook page.

The new homework page is here. Given my upcoming vacation and other commitments before vacation, I will not be trading much during December 2010 so the home work contributions from my side could be bit patchy. The links have been updated on the site. Please remember to post your comments on this page. Also please remember to subscribe to comments via email on this page if you have been a passive follower. Please click here for more information on email subscription. You can also subscribe to all comments on the site by adding http://feeds.feedburner.com/vs-trader-comments RSS feed to your favourite reader like Google reader. There is also a Facebook page here for those of you on Facebook. You can like it to join the page updates.

Happy trading.

VS

*** for the sake of disclosure, this performance is calculated on 2 lot basis trading my Homework and should not be used as a reflection of my trading OR my account size/position size. I take all my Homework trades but in position size consistent with my risk capital.

- (c) author(s) of http://vs-trader.blogspot.com