$HG_F : Wireless Recovery Without Copper

Dr Copper coiling up in tight range while stocks surge. May be we are all wireless now :-)

Sign of potential disconnect between markets. Time for caution for any bulls going all in on these highs.

I am sure every one is basking in the glory of headlines about stock markets hitting their all time highs (Bah Humbug). The bull market of 2009 is incredible in that regard. It has crushed the bears, many top callers have been obliterated and the markets have come in the complete control of central bankers planning bailouts and engaged in money printing. It is quite likely that in such party, the sentiments can get carried away. After all, who has not heard the famous last words - just one for the road!. 

Even though I trade technically and what is in the charts, I like to keep an keen eye on fundamentals, eventually fundamentals do come out in charts. One such indicator of economic activity is Copper. If the growth is coming from economic activities, copper is one element which is used in abundance. Any real economic activity (bank bailouts are not real economic activity in case some one has doubts) ends up using copper. So demand and therefore price for copper can be a good indicator of what is happening in real world. In fact for that reason many market participants call it Dr Copper. Here is a 5 year weekly chart of Copper continuous futures compared to SPX (as magenta line).

My Hypothetical Stocks Portfolio

Tracking performance of my views on various popular stocks.

I do not trade stock in general and instead I prefer bigger markets like S&P 500 index future, Treasury Bonds futures or foreign exchange which suits better to my macro driven approach to trading. However it is no secret that majority of investing and trading population discusses, trades and loves to talk about stocks. Some stocks tend to build up enough following so as to behave like a macro indicator for general market. My interest in trading stocks began after I started following and shorting AAPL. More than the trade I enjoyed the resulting discussions with my friends and colleagues in investment and trading circle. Hence I thought about creating a collection of my current views on various stocks and also keep a track of those views. Just for a light hearted investment track record.

Please provide your comments and discussions. Also if you wish you discuss a particular stock please mention in the comments and who knows, I might take a hypothetical position in that :-)

My Hypothetical Stock Portfolio Table

$GC_F : Bullish set-up in making

Tentative long set-up appears to be in making

Cautiously long, expecting a break above 1720-30 for safe long.

Here is a weekly chart for Gold continuous futures. Those who follow gold closely, know that it is in a painful range for more than a year after hitting all time high in 1923 area. The ranges are very difficult to trade for trend followers and price action is choppy and churning, resulting in many bad trades or scratch trades and eventually everyone throws in the towel before a move develops out of the range. Gold has been in 1800-1500 range for more than a year now (yellow dashed lines).