General MarketsThe HW sharing experiment seems to work successfully. I cannot express how confident I feel about my trading plans when other traders come with similar/same numbers. Also it allows me to relook at my work if others have differing view. So lets do it again in June. I think if you leave just one comment, you can choose the options to subscribe and follow on comments come automatically to you via blogger?Or there is also an option to subscribe to all comment on the right hand side on main page which can be used for subscribing in most common blog readers.Happy trading.VS
2009-05-30
HOME WORKS (JUNE 2009)
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1st June 2009
ReplyDelete-------------
This is a kind of mixed home work, containing some long term/swing based views as well as day trade homework.
ES
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3 Consequtive monthly gains. The monthly range is getting smaller but new highs are made.
4 Week range box 54.25 pt (929.5/875.75). It would be reasonable to assume atleast 50 pt breakout from the range with target 979.5 or 825.75. Likely breakout appears to be on the up side. So a box play setup can be used for longer term trades with 50+ pt objective.
For day trades - 927.75 was a double top, 929 is a box res as above. However the trend seems to be bullish and strong and worth playing on long side until proven wrong.
Buy: 916 - 912, defence 911
Stop: below 903 (below 910 start looking to exit on long on next retracement up)
Target: 942/943 res 932. I would like to leave runner for the 979.5 target with BE stop.
NQ:
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Similar though stronger pattern compared to ES.
4 Week range box 100 pt (1437.75/1336.5) which was briefly breached on Friday.
I could even consider taking a cautious probe long between 1435-1430 at open.
Buy: 1428/1423, defence 1417
Stop: below 1410, below 1414 I will look to exit longs on next retracement up.
Target: 1461/1463 with 1450 res. Leaving a runner for box play with 1535 target BE stop.
ZB: ZBU9
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Consolidating - Look for short around 118'11 - 119'09 with 121'16 stop. But not a convincing trade as of now.
GC: GCZ9
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Gold is movings towards the tripple top of 1008 and likely to touch it soon. I have position in gold so no big trades for me but I would consider buying all dips to 972/960 area with 944 watch/defence level and 933 hard stop. The risk reward is bit skewed here so only good for adding to winning positions.
EC:
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I would let EC consolidate. There can be pullback to 13730s which could be buying opportunities. I look for 1.45-1.50 target in near future. 78.650 could act as support for DX possibly and one to watch.
Happy Trading
VS
ES: To be honest I didn't spot the double top until reading your info and omni info, but I do fill comfortable going long due to bullish indicators and the dollar in it's downward channel which looks like it might hit resistance in the near term at 80.07 area, but to be cautious it is testing the middle of the H&S on the downside.
ReplyDeleteMy day trade: Buy 908-905 with a possible nibble around 910. Stop below 896 a target of 928 and resistance around 915.
NQ: Buy at 1418-1422 stop below 1400 target 1454 with resistance in the mid 1430's. NQ is the obvious leader so I would feel more comfortable if both ES and NQ line up before the trade.
EC: I will wait for it to cool down, but I wanted to do numbers to see if the day trade would work. I will not trade this info, but I wanted to see if analysis is correct. Buy 1.4020-1.4010, stop below 1.3920. Target 1.4220 with res at 1.4170's. We have a long way to go before we test the middle of the H&S so that does give me confidence on the Upside, especially if my analysis on the dollar is correct.
ZC: Majority of the indicators are bullish and once it breaks out from that triple top it's off to the races IMO. Buy 428, stop below 420, target for the near term 453 and daily target 441.
ZW: I thought this was an interesting one with grains on such a move this one appears to be at a daily double top. Day trade: sell at 642-644, stop 655 target 618 with res around 631.
Best Regards,
CK
for trade date June 2, 2009
ReplyDeleteAs I mentioned in the chat room I did take my trade on the ZW. I took it for a couple of reasons. The first was to test my own mental stability to see if I really can do this without anyone telling me what to do. The 2nd reason I took it was because I thought we might get a pullback in the dollar to the 80.7 area. The third reason I took it was on my charts it was a double top with a continuous ZW contract symbol. These points helped me in my decision to take the trade and I learned a lot. 1) I can take a loss with no problems; 2) there are a lot more complexities with grains than I expected. 3) my stop was placed at a great level for me and saved me a lot of $$$. So all and all even though I was on the wrong end of this trade, I learned a lot about myself and the market. I mentioned this trade in the room to get everyone’s feedback and I understood some of what you were saying in the chat room, but if you have anything else to add please feel free to. No feelings will be hurt as I'm in this to be profitable and here for the long term. That being said here are my setups for June 2nd.
ES: Today we breached the head of the H&S and closed above the 200 day MA both in cash and futures for the first time since the end of 2007. That coupled with indicators being very bullish and the fact we are still in an upward channel I am a buyer of dips. Buy 931-928, stop below 918, target 1) 970 if pumped up, target 2) 960. Resistance levels 944-946
NQ: Buy 1443-1440, stop below 1424, target 1500, res 1455-1460
EC: Euro looks to me like it has a swing day setup on it. My main focus moving forward will be ES, but I like to do analysis on EC everyday. Sell 1.4160-1.4170 (more emphasis on 1.4170 entry) stop above 1.4245. Target 1.3960, res 1.4100 and 1.4030
ZC: Looks like it has cleared the triple top it was bumping it's head on and with all indicators bullish, grains bullish, CRB bullish, I feel good about buying corn. Buy 437-435 stop 425 target 455. I would expect some res around 443.
Constructive feedback welcomed by anyone. Thanks,
CK
2nd June 2009
ReplyDelete-------------
GM is out, and so are the indices from a tight range in May. The markets (in trading hours) have gapped open from the range high, and maintained the bullish outlook. I would now treat the trading hour opening gap and the top of the range as resistance on many of my positions.
NQ:
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Out of a 100 pt range in a big way and therefore expecting 1537.75 target on swing trade basis. The opening gap and top of range (1437.75) should act as support. If the trend continues, which I expect to continue, I would look here to build swing positions and leaving break even runners for at least 1537 area.
Day Trade:
Buy : 1464 - 1456, Defence 1450
Stop : 1429 with 1438 mental stop.
Target : 1505 - 1514, 1490 as first res.
ES:
---
Similar story as ES and out of 50 pt range. Look for 979.5 on swing basis. Es at 1000 is not out of reach. Similar strategy as NQ. However buy area are bit difficult for ES.
Day Trade:
Buy : 938 - 936 defence 931
Stop : 925 with 930 Mental Stop
Target : 958 - 962 with 951 as first res.
ZB: ZBU9
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ZB area breaking down but did not break new lows today though they are very close. Some long term extensions on ZB are met and some other extensions look for 110'22. I am out of most long term positions other than some small hedges or butterflies. On Day trade basis I will still look to trade them from short side for sometime.
Day Trade:
Sell : 115'30 - 116'09 def 116'24
Stop : 117'27 with 117'11 as mental stop
Target : 112'27 - 112'23 with 114 as support.
GC: GCZ9
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GC shot through today but retreated later. It is like a swing day and can be traded as swing day.
Day Trade:
Sell : 984.6
Stop : 990
Target : 970.5-965.5 - Could reverse position to long at these level with stop 944.00
ZC:
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Corn has broken out. I would like to now see 474 level. Stops can move up and new position can be taken with stop below 435. 448 remain a res.
EC:
---
I would still like EC to consolidate bit more. Would look to buy around 1.4085 - 1.4045 and 1.4020 - 1.3965 for swing basis looking for 1.4975 sort of level.
Other Notes:
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ZM: Soymeal July seems to be getting exhausted on top. A trade can be to buy dec/sell jul expecting closing of spreads.
NG: is looking a buy at current level with stops below swing low. For long term basis (consider dec contract to avoid rollover)
Copper has broken on the upside as well once again out of appex.
Happy Trading
VS
3rd June 2009
ReplyDelete-------------
Today (2nd June) not a big day on news front. Tomorrow is ADP and ISM numbers which can move markets. Indices have caught up with 200 EMA and likely to push ahead after a pause. USD is still dropping and bonds have tested bottom again.
NQ:
---
I missed my day buy today by 2 ticks!!
Technically there is a swing day so the first trade of the day can be on swing basis. However given the bullish fundamentals, this trade has to be set up during overnight and I would look to get out early on the session. My bias is still long. What I see in NQ is start of a bull flag formation. In such cases, usually I look to buy 50% - 61.8% of the flag pole for the bigger move on swing basis. The flag part are usually smaller consolidating moves, possibly in the direction against the trend which are difficult to trade so best to left them to consolidate or buy in dips and try to sell on top or wait for breakout from flag.
I also still consider 1337.75 as key support and I look to build positions around that.
First Trade Swing Day
Sell : 1482.25 - 1485.75. No Defence. Small Position
Stop : 1494.50
Target : 1466.5 - 1458 be nimble
Main Trade:
Buy : 1464.50 - 1454.50, defence 1450.50
Stop : 1429 with 1437.75 Mental Stop (gap fill)
Target : 1519 - 1537.75, 1509 first res.
ES:
---
The day trade worked with 949 was achieved instead of 951 res. Trailing stops provided profit on the trade.
Similar story as NQ. I will treat 929.5 as key support and look for 979.5 on swing basis. ES 1154 is also a projection for me.
I would prefer not to trade ES and instead watch the action on NQ first. I would watch the action in the 939-936 area as test long (watch - no trade in first go). I still like 932.5 - 927 area for long with stops below 916. In terms of day target on upside I would like to see 956-958 with 951 as res.
Small position trade no defence.
ZB: ZBU9
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Trade area never reached.
ZB area breaking down but did not break new lows today though they are very close. Teeny Weeny swing day for long (by 2 ticks) but I will give that a pass. On Day trade basis I will still look to trade them from short side for sometime with small position no defence.
Day Trade:
Sell : 116'04 - 116'07
Stop : 117'27 with 116'17 as mental stop
Target : 112'27 - 112'23 with 113'21 as support.
GC: GCZ9
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Swing day trade was hit and was little profit in the trade which could have been achieved via trailing stop loss. Overall a minor loss.
GC now loos to be a bull flag in making. If there is any pullback to 967 (940 stop) I would look to buy that. Otherwise I am loaded up in GC and pass day trades.
ZC:
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ZC is on bull run so buying 50 % ret with stops below LOD can work. On established positions I am looking to move stop higher. I dont trade grains on day trade basis and therefore no specific day recommendation. I would look to buy 447-444 area.
EC:
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Since the move is already underway and I already have big position, I am taking small position trade here.
Buy : 1.4250-1.4200
Stop :Below 1.4100
Target : 1.4472 with 1.4385 as res.
ZMN9: SOY MEAL
--------------
ZMn9 are looking exhausted to me. If long, worth switching into Dec contract or take profit. (sell July Buy Dec) is also a good trade. Or aggressive traders take direct short. Need to be quick to take profit as counter trend and stops above the high 394. Possible 20 pt target on short. Consider switching to ZL (SoyOil)
Other Notes:
------------
NG: is looking a buy at current level with stops below swing low. For long term basis (consider dec contract to avoid rollover)
Copper has broken on the upside as well once again out of appex.
Sugar SB is looking a bit exhausted as well and some minor shorts can be taken, esp as hedge against other long commodities positions. Stop above high 16.05.
Happy Trading
VS
For June 3, 2009
ReplyDeleteThe ES and NQ are still in a strong upward channel while the dollar is in its downward slide and I believe we are still buyers of dips until proven otherwise. I do want to be a little cautious because a number of indicators are starting to curl downward. I feel this way about the Euro and the grains as well. It appears everything is still looking at the dollar performance and for the time being linked.
ES: Buy 934-931 with a stop below 821. Day trade target of 964 with resistance at 942, 947, 958.
NQ: Buy 1464-1460 with stop below 1440. Day trade target of 1500 with resistance at 1478. I do see a little bit of a swing day setup on NQ more so than ES, this along with the downward curling indicators is something to be aware of, but I feel with the overall strength and hurtles the NQ and ES have crossed I am still bullish at the moment.
ZC: Buy 441 with a stop level at 430. I feel this can reach 458 with res at 453. I am a buyer of dips in corn due to the same reasoning as yesterday.
EC: Swing trade from yesterday would have yielded at least 60 Pips and with BE stop no loss would have occurred before the buy frenzy began. That being said, today my HW says to Buy 1.4185-70 with a stop level below 1.4090. I think this can climb to 1.4409 on a day trade with resistance at 1.4240.
Best Regards,
CK
4th June 2009
ReplyDelete-------------
Looks like Thursday will be a day to relax and re-assess the markets. I am out of most of my swing/long term positions today converting the unrealised profit to realised profit and I am now assessing markets for next set of positions.
Some convetion for my HW.
BO Buy/So Sell/ST Stop/TG Target/ND No Defence/DE Defence/SP Small Position/BE Break Even/MS Mental Stop/LT Long Term
NQ:
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Swing Trade worked. Also the main trade worked as well. My view is still that we are forming a bull flag so I will buy tracements or breakouts. NQ held support nicely and did not fill the professional gap. My initial trade will be swing day trade.
BO : 1468.25-1465
ST : 1454. MS 1458. ND/SP
TG : 1489 (50%) and 1508. 1489 Res
ES:
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Professional gap nearly filled but 921.5 support was held. I will pass the overnight session and wait for the market to develop before taking a trade.
ZB:ZBU9
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I am carrying my ZB short from 2nd Jun with stops in. I am reducing the TG on the trade to BE. No futher trades on ZB as of now.
GC:GCZ9
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GC had a massive drop. I added to my position with the stop in place. However I need to watch if I need to lighten up on GC for sometime. I still remain bullish on GC.
ZC:
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I closed my long term ZC positions today on trailing stops. The move has taken ZC back below 200 MA. MACD failed to make new high. I would now consider taking short positions, initially on 1 lot and if the trend turns DOWN, adding to them targetting 405.
SO : 437.75-439.75
sT : 450. MS 447 SP/ND
TG : 405 LT, 426/420/422 res.
EC:
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Wait for market action.
ZMn9:
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Dropped as expected. Keeping positions on and trailing stops.
SBn9:
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Sugar dropped as expected. Keeping positions on and trailing stops.
Happy trading,
VS
testing. just testing for now.
ReplyDeleteFor June 4, 2009
ReplyDeleteUpdate: Well my analysis for Corn was a little off and am glad that I got out roughly BE (due to Oscars flash and the fact I was already in the money in Euro. Didn't feel like I should be a pig and wanted to sit tight and watch market). As for the Euro I was able to get out half of my position at my resistance level of 1.4240 and moved the other half to BE. No ES trade today I was having too much trouble with HW on it and didn't want to force the issue. Especially when I felt really good about Euro and Oscar warned us these markets could get a little crazy today.
For trading today: I'm really torn on what to do so I think for today's trading action I will sit tight and just watch. If something pops up I will take it with only minimal contracts. Everywhere I look it feels like I would be gambling on direction and I do not want to do that. I generally feel we will have a pull back and go up, but again I am not putting my money on it this time. Seems like the charts are saying one thing and the indicators are saying another. I will wait for clarification.
NQ is the only market I would give numbers to and have some inkling of confidence. Buy 1464-1460 stop below 1440 with a target of still 1500 with resistance at 1484.
Best Regards,
CK
5th June 2009
ReplyDelete-------------
Oscar's turn around day worked well and markets closed near the high of the session. Non farm payroll and unemployment rates are major news on Friday at 0830 EST. Dance around 200ma continues.
NQ:
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My entry did not hit.
Strongest of the indices. On position trade basis, with 1422 initial stop, I can see NQ all the way to 1685 and I plan to pick up this trade on break of new high.
BO : 1487 - 1483.75 DE 1478
ST : 1473 MS 1478
TG : 1506. 1498.75 res
ES:
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Markets turned around but did not make new high (949). That leaves me a bit in doubt. Both up and down gaps are now filled (partially). Settlement above 200 ma makes it positive. A likely attempt towards 949 can be on card with possible upside breakout. I am more comfortable with NQ trade.
BO : 937 - 934 SP/ND
ST : 924 MS 931
TG : 951. 945 res
ZB:ZBU9
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Bonds made new lows and settled lower. They could make a run towards 112'12 - 110'22 now. I am short bonds and would add small positions and trail stops.
SO : 114'27-115'08 SP/ND
ST : 116'18
TG : 112'115. 113'11 res
GC:GCz9:
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Gold returned up nicely but did not make a new high. The pattern is turning into a bull flag and possibly ready for breakout. Since I have position in GC, I will do only a small position trade.
BO : 978-975 SP/ND
ST : 960
TG : 996. 988 res
ZC:
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Corn probe short did not work and I got out at mental stop as there was no retracement.
There is a mirror image on Corn. I would leave it to see if 450 high is broken and then take positions on retracement.
BP:6Bm9
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I am watching with a view to take possible short. Need to get right setup.
EC:
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Swing day and positive close after mirror image. Will play as that with small position.
BO : 1.4155 - 1.4130. 4108 Def
ST : 1.4069
TG : 1.4323. 1.4263 res
ZS:
---
Beans are getting into a short ambush, esp the JULY contract. I am so far buying spread (buy nov/sell jul). I after a setup I want, I will look to short ZSn9. Also some other commodities are showing signs of exhaustion. I will comment on them as long term trade.
Happy trading,
VS
For June 5, 2009:
ReplyDeleteTwo things help me think bull tomorrow. 1)The close of the ES over the 200 for the 4th day in a row. 2)I think dollar looks to be in a swing setup and and still in it's downward channel.
ES: held resistance of 928 today and is a good sign to me. Buy 936-934 with a possible nibble at 938. Stop below 927 with a target at 964 and res at 945-947, 955.
NQ: buy 1482-1480, stop below 1465. Target of 1519 with res at 1500-1505
EC: Buy 1.4130-1.4115, stop below 1.4140 with res at 1.4200-10, 1.4240. looks like a 4th flag building up here.
ZW: buy 633.5-631.5, stop at 619. Target at 671 with res at 645 and 660.
ZC: Buy 445.5-443, stop at 432. Target 565 with res 554. I will opt to exit at 554 if hit. One note for the longer term of corn. I think we can reach the mid 570's level due to the V shape projection from the lows in December 2008.
Best Regards,
CK
My first hmwk attempt, which i thank you for since its made me consolidate my information.
ReplyDeleteI think we are pointing to a bullish day tomorrow since S&P made a valiant attempt to close above 200 sma and is holding so far.
/NQ: Seems the most bullish to me. In a sharply upwards slanting narrow bullish channel.
Buy 1484/1482
Stop below 1473
Target 1500-1505 (resistance at 1495)
/ES: i'm tentative, since it is in the middle of the channel
Buy 936
Stop below 928
Target 945-950 if we break, 958
Euro:
Buy 1.4105
As a general rule I have 50 pt stops and 100 point profit tgt, that being said a target of 1.4343 would not be crazy if it decides to run.
ZC:
Buy 440
Mental stop 434, Hard stop 430
Target 454 (447-450 resistance)
Am watching Natural Gas as Buy, OJ and Pound looking weak
For June 8, 2009.
ReplyDeleteI am a little on the fence starting out the week. I see the ES stalling a couple of times around the head of the H&S. I see a possible double bottom in the DX. In addition, indicators seemed mixed to a little top heavy. I do not think the dollar will ultimately become a bullish beast, but for a day trade I am watching very closely and expect it to move a little higher.
ES: I see a mirror setup in the DX and with the ES having trouble getting over the 949 hump during the cash market trading hours, I see myself set up as a seller for Monday. One thing that gives me caution is NQ is still strong and the ES is still above 200 day MA and in an upward channel. Along with that, the DX is right on the top of my parallel channel. So I will be just swinging for singles today and being very nimble. Chances are I will just watch and not trade over night. I will see how everything settles out for the opening bell. Sell 946-948 stop above 957.5. Target 933 with resistance around 939.
EC: with the mirror setup in DX it looks like we have one in the EC. With that in combination with very bearish indicators, I see a very good chance for the EC to retest the low end of the current channel. that being said I am a seller for the day at 1.4020-1.4035 with a stop above 1.4100. Target is 1.3880 with res around the 1.3920's.
I am in a wait and see mode with grains.
Best Regards,
CK
so my TMR is slightly different. i start timing at 9:20 (EST) and after the 30 mins establishes the range, i wait for on of the ranges to be crossed and confirm with a 5/10 min bar and then I trade.
ReplyDeleteSo I have data for 46 days. I have tested the data with min pts gained to consider a winning day is 2 points. 5 pt stop. Worked 32 days. Failed 5 days (out of these days it then worked on a second trigger 4 days). The trade did not trigger 9 days.
Out of the 32 days the max points achieved(out of 10pts) were:
10pts: 10 days; 8pts: 3; 6 pts:6; 4 pts: 7; 2 pts: 6
please ask me additional questions or clarifications. At the end of this week will have 50 days data which is a proper statistic :)
Happy Sunday and a great trading week to all.
Dee, I have also copied your TMR comments to the TMR page here http://tinyurl.com/n7ev4d where it was most eagerly awaited.
ReplyDeleteI am doing my HW now as I hit the bed early after spending much time on my weekend review. Lazy day so far.
9th June 2009
ReplyDelete-------------
Looks like markets have enterred that choppy/boring zone where it is not low enough to buy and not high enough to sell and all you get is few points here and there on quick day trades. I usually prefer to stay out of such markets and focus on analysis/planning. However such days can also present good day trading setups. So here is my take on next day. Many European Indices are giving me creeps on the upside and I would like to see MacAllan turn decisively up or indices taking out new highs before long trade.
NQ:
---
Still remain bullish and most strong of the lot. Certainly a market to buy the dips. MacAllan has not turned negative and suggest more upside. Only when NQ rolls over I would consider end of this bull move but since caution abound, I will trade NQ mainly until a clear direction emerges.
BO : 1483-1479 SP/ND
ST : 1460
TG : 1521, 1495 res
ES:
---
can be played as a possible swing day to start with.
BO : 936-933
ST : 928
TG : 960, 952 res
ZB:ZBU9
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Bonds have been unable to push higher but can find support on these levels. They can be cautious shorts for day trade basis
SO : 113'24-113'29 SP/ND
ST : 114'16. MS 114'02
TG : 112'145 112'29 res
GC:GCZ9
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Approaching buy area on 50% ret. I still remain bullish on GC as insurance.
BO : 943-939 SP/ND
ST : 919 MS 926
TG : 973-989, 968 res
ZC:
---
Corn is showing weekness and MacAllan has turned negative. There is a crop report coming on Wednesday to it is possible people might squeeze longs before riding the news. For long side, I need to see breakout about 450. For the timebeing I prefer to stay out of this market. I could try a possible short as below with very small position as fade the news trade.
SO : 439.75-442 SP/ND
ST : 447
TG : 425, 430 res
EC:
---
My initial buy area is 1.3750 which is still bit far from where we are. So I will pass the EC trade. There is a possibility of short at 1.39 with small stop 1.3960.
Other notes:
------------
OJ trail stops on short (91.95)
SB keep stop in place. Roll over to Oct and adjust stop.
KC flat now but keep an eye on 125.25 area for possible long.
Happy trading,
VS
For June 9, 2009:
ReplyDeleteMarkets showed a little grit today holding lows and bouncing towards the head of the H&S once again. It seemed to me the shorts wanted it down all day and finally conceded in the last hour which accelerated the rally. I am a buyer of both ES and NQ, but I have a better feeling towards NQ due to its obvious leadership.
ES: Buy 931-928 with a stop below 918. Target 963 with resistance at 943, 948, 957.
NQ: Buy 1475 with a stop below 1460. Target 1530. Resistance around 1505.
EC: I was right with direction yesterday and needed it just a little bit higher for entry. Those numbers were largely based on a mirror setup. I believe we are still in that setup and a Buy at 1.3820-1.3810 with a stop below 1.3720. Target is 1.4040 with res at 1.3920 and 1.4000.
ZC: I have never sat through a grain report before and am anxious to see how it effects the grains. That being said, all information is in the charts and I think today is a great day to implement the 2 day rule. I am waiting for the report to come through before trading this but my analysis points me to a buy at 433.5 with a stop below 423. Target 444 and res at 440.
notes: One thing I thought was interesting was the Dow Transports has not yet crossed the 200 day MA.
Best Regards,
CK
Markets are in a grey area and the horizontal channel we are currently in makes it hard to call and as per Allan's experience both his long and short setup worked. Since we are above the 200 SMA my bias is bullish so I feel more comfortable buying pullbacks.
ReplyDeleteThat being said once again the NQ channel at least is slightly upwards slanting.
so NQ Buy 1477 Mental stop 1466 Hard Stop 1458
Target 1500, 1515
/ES this a hard call and my tendency is to be conservative
Buy 927-924 Stop 916
Target 943, 958
Leaving grains this week until after report. I'm new to grains and have no experience with reports thus far.
Great trading :)
10th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
European Indices still remain weak under the influence fo MacAllan. They need to pull up quick if this bull market has legs. This is only concern I have about long indices trade. Dax above 5200 and FTSE above 4500 would be good for this rally. Unless a sharp up move is coming in ES, US indices except NQ are falling in the same trap and that could bring a down move in most indices. Still so far the trend is bullish but I am getting cautious day by day.
ES:
---
Last Trade - Entry hit, exit before open at 942 in line with swing day play these days. Second time entry hit too. Exit 945.
Most of ES trading session was in a range 934-945. If anthing I will try a range breakout play first i.e. sell on break of 934.25 or buy on break of 945 (whatever happens first) with stop at end of range (i.e. 934.25 stop for 945 long) and target as 10 pt. Lets see how that goes.
NQ:
---
Last Trade - Missed Entry.
NQ is once again leader and healthy on upside. So I prefer to trade NQ more than ES. 1509 as acted as res twice (double top sort of area). This should break for the bulls to continue. But that is also a concern for me as we reversed from that area today into close.
BO : 1498.75 - 1495.50, DEF 1485 *** I see that first entry is very close
ST : 1478 MS 1482
TG : 1523.5 1519 res
ZB:ZBu9
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Last Trade - Entry hit, exit 113'10
Bonds appear to be in a bear flag and though they are at bottom, I do see little more down side in them (until 112/110 area). So I trade them from short side but on day trade basis as fed can spoil the party anyday. We seem to be in a range from 114'15/112'31
SO : 113'21-113'24 SP/ND
ST : 114'20, MS 114'16
TG : 112'235 or lower.
GC:GCZ9
-------
I would have liked Gold to settle above 963 today to give my a swing trade long signal. I will pass GC on 10th. Stop remain on the long term position. I would also look for MacAllan to turn positive before taking next set of longs.
For long term traders, the pullbacks in GC can be good time to pick up 1500 call in Dec09/Dec10 area. Also 1500/2500 calls bought now can be used to setup 1500/2000/2500 butterfly later on.
ZC:
---
Last Trade - Entry hit. Out 444 at loss. No trade tomorrow, will watch crop report and enter longs if we break 450.
CL:CLZ9
-------
Crude has given a long signal on swing trade basis (actually it has been giving that for a long time). I will look to add to my position, possibly leaving runners. For day trade:
BO : 73.40 - 73.00 SP/ND
ST : 72 MS 72.70
TG : 75, 74.5 res
BP: 6BU9
--------
BP has once again given my swing long signal (excep MacAllan which I was expecting to turn positive). Lucky me I closed my shorts quickly on BP. I will look to build position in BP again by leaving runners
BO : 1.6178-1.6127, probe 1.6213
ST : 1.60
TG : 1.6581, 1.6420 res
EC:
---
Similar signal as BP, however I would like to see one more day on EC. It could be a formation of H&S if we do not break higher from current level. And which could distort BP trade as well. So only one market tomorrow.
Othernotes:
ZS: beans are shooting off like an arrow. Will wait for crop report. I am not joining this bull move as of now.
UK/GERMAN govt bonds are signalling a bottom, pullback on upside for short period. Would be interesting to watch them (and also what effect they have on US bonds which seem to be dropping).
ZRx9 have broken higher. I am building up long position there.
Added NG Dec 09 6.5 Call in prepration for the butter fly.
Possible Mirror Image on Silver
Copper broken to new high after consolidation.
Platinum in bull flag. Watch it.
OJ short trail stop (90)
Happy Trading,
VS
For June 10, 2009
ReplyDeleteHard for me to really want to commit to anything, but I am leaning toward the long side of the ES. Today's range was about half of the average range, but we did hold critical levels. Market seems to be in a constant dead zone and does not want to commit either way, but when it does we are going to see a good amount of movement one way or the other. As for now I am still a buyer and my HW thinks we break through to the upside. Buy 935-933 stop below 922 with a target at 969. Resistance at 944, 949, 957.
NQ: Buy 1488-1485 stop below 1470. target is 1533 with res at 1515, 1505
EC: I have been in sync with euro but missing it by 30 or so pips either way, I feel since we are still in the upward channel and indicators curling upwards, tomorrow is a buy. I'm also looking for DX to pullback to 80.07 and hold resistance before continuing downward. In doing so this will confirm my entry numbers for EC. buy 1.4035-15 with a stop below 1.3922. Target potential of 1.4170 with resistance at 1.4100.
No grain trades for me until report has been digested.
Thanks to everyone for posting their ideas and work. It helps me when I post because it makes me solidify my numbers and it helps me read everyone's thoughts to gain other perspectives.
Best regards,
CK
VS,
ReplyDeleteI just wrote a nice msg but it vanished out in cyberspace .. oh well ...
UY
Allan
ok, that one worked ...
ReplyDeleteIn Swedish we have a saying that goes something like this ... shame on you for quitting ... so here we go again:
9 hw plans for Wednesday's trading (3 better than Oscar, who had his excuses though). I will only post 3 of them because of lazyness. Here they are:
1) ES: B 936 (alt. 925), Stp 925 (913), PO 1000
2) NQ: B 1498, Stp 1486, PO 1525
3) EC: B 1.3975, Stp 1.3850, PO 1.4265
At the time of this writing, all trains have left the station without me....
My only question right now is ... where is Dee's hw?
Best regards
Allan
wrote my whole thing here earlier and cd have sworn it posted...so here goes the abbreviated version
ReplyDelete/nq 1490 stp 1478 target 1513-1551
/es am not feeling this one again, in a narrow range buy 933, stp 925.5, target 946 - 959
/ec buy 1.3977 stp 1.38 target 1.415-1.418
/bp buy 1.6167 stp 1.58 target 1.64
good trading to all
actually I keep my hw on NOTEPAD - so I can copy paste for eternity, I also use that to track the action next day.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what happened but I can say "it wasn't me"
VS,
ReplyDeleteI have always kept notes by writing by hand. Maybe that is oldfashioned? I am only half way through my present notebook, should I retire the thing? That's a major decision I have to think about for a while.
Good trading.
Allan
11th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Today was the day when I threw in towel on the long side finally. I think MacAllan has caught up with the indices and we could be on a turn down for the much awaited pullback on this rally. I have been getting uncomfortable with the lack of push on the bulls side to take it higher, european indices have been under the influence of MacAllan lately and now even US indices are coming under the influence as well. So unless we see a sharp reversal soon, taking out new highs, I will be trading from the short side for sometime as "minor trend" and see if this pullback brings the markets back into a healthy position for next leg up.
ES:
---
Last Trade - Range play entry hit on long side. Exit at 952 (bit early)
As mentioned above, the trend is changing, even though the key level are supported, failure to make a new high is bigger worry for me as of now. So for some time I am on short side. But considering these are counter trend trade against major trend, position is small (half usual size) and no defence.
SO : 938.25-940.50 *** I am already filled in this position 38.25
ST : 955 MS 950
TG : 918-912, 921 res
NQ:
---
Last Trade - Entry hit in premarket - exit 1515 after res held. Other orders pulled.
SO : 1491 - 1495 *** I am already filled in this position 91/93/95
ST : 1517.75 MS 1509.5
TG : 1451-1440, 1460 res
ZB:ZBu9
-------
Last Trade - Entry hit 113'210, exit at target 112'235
SO : 112'25-113'03 SP/ND
ST : 113'250
TG : 111, 111'190 res
GC:GCZ9
-------
I decided to close my long term GC positions today leaving only the long dated option positions.
ZC:
---
450 is still not taken and therefore I still wait on sideline to go long again. After break today, I will give Corn another day to breath before considering next course of action on ZC.
CL:CLZ9
-------
Last Trade - Pulled my orders as market raced to my res first. CL is still holding to new highs so worth longs. No trades though for tomorrow.
BP: 6BU9
--------
Last Trade - No entry. 1.6420 res held good and caused a minor sell off. Pulled orders on that event.
I would like to trdae BP as swing day initially.
SO : 1.6360 SP/ND
ST : 1.6476
TG : 1.6086 1.6176 res
EC:
---
EC H&S apprears to be forming, bear flag appears to be in place and not helped by MacAllan. For me to be bull, I need to see new highs above 1.4338 soon. Until then I am on short side on day trade basis in these choppy markets.
SO : 1.4015-1.4035
ST : 1.4140 MS 1.4078
TG : 1.3758 1.3791 res
Other notes:
ZS: I am now actively looking to short ZSn9 if they break below 1226.
Added NGz9 8.5 call for eventual butterfly.
OJ trail stop on short (88.70)
Happy Trading,
VS
/ES: We are in a tightly bound range, especially in the ES. The fact that we are having problems clearing the 950 and are closing close to our open, along with drying volume may be indicating that hedge funds did not jump in after we cleared the 200 sma and instead we are stuck in a trader's market.
ReplyDelete925 has become support, 955 is resistance. Not sure how to play this. Would have liked to have gotten in at 941, the 50% retracement level for today. Will watch.
Will look to play the range. Will see what gets tested first.
/NQ Range bound but still sloping upwards.
50% retracement play seems to be working well here too.
More comfortable betting on upside still. Will watch for 1475.
EC Looking bearish. A very clear h&s seems to be forming.
Short at 1.4014-1.4038
Stop: mental 1.4092 hard 1.4136
Target 1.38
BP: on sidelines. May be going for Double Top/V formation.
I'm taking a couple of weeks off. (Traveling, finishing house, trying to rest brain :). Will try to post homework every night, since I find it indispensable to learning.
May you keep gathering points,
Diana
Have fun Dee and take it easy! Yes, I must say that since I started this HW, it has brought a lot more discipline to my trading. Earlier I would miss many markets or miss some key intra day opportunities but I am able to capture them.
ReplyDeleteYou all must be pleased to know that I actually mark out your HW (Entry/stop/target) levels on my charts each morning - a painstaking but worthwhile effort. That gives me a good idea to see where our thought process really are.
I owe a lot of my success to your effort. Thank you all very much.
I must be the black sheep of the bunch. I still think this market has legs via the charts. Usually when the masses think one thing is coming the opposite happens "odd lot theory". And I hear some bears peaking their heads out. ES is still in an upward channel but slowed considerably with dried up volume no doubt. Won't take much to push it one way or the other so I will play this cautiously.
ReplyDeleteES: buy 935-933 with a stop around 920. Target 969 with res 40, 44, 49, 57. I will have to keep my eye on the spread between July and Sept. to make sure these numbers till work.
NQ: buy 1491-1488 with a stop below 1470. Target 1536 with res 1505, 1515.
EC: Buy 1.3985-1.3970 with a stop at 1.3885. I see the possibity of a H&S forming, but it's not completed yet and its in a bullish channel which correct me if I'm wrong is bullish. Target 1.4240, (1.4140 exit point for me) with res at 1.4100.
ZC: Buy 435-433 with a stop below 429 and a target at 445.
Nice to see you post your work on your station VS, believe it or not it makes me work a lot harder with my HW knowing others are looking at it and now especially with you posting it on your screen. Feet to the fire baby.
Best Regards,
CK
VS,
ReplyDeleteMy hw for Thursday, June 11, is as follows:
NQ: Buy= 1485, Stp= 1472, PO= 1537
ES: B= 937, Stp= 921, PO= 955
EC: B= 1.4015, Stp= 1.3901, PO= 1.4250
Had I taken my own hw today on EC I would have save myself a lot of pain! Oh well, hindsight is 20/20.
Happy Trading
Allan
12th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
I was totally rubbish today and completely on the wrong side of the market. May be I jumped the gun by one day yesterday, but I am seriously not able to bring myself to take long positions in this market unless new highs are broken. For me that line in sand is 953 on ESu9, 1518 on NQu9 and 1.4327 on 6Eu9. So looks like I might be off to rest like Dee for sometime. I have settled myself to trading half size position until a clear trend re-emerges.
ES:
---
Last Trade - entry hit. Market then shot up and kept bouncing on my top entry as support! Exit - Stop Out
It is a nice cup and handle pattern on ES and we have a nice 30 pt range from 925 - 955 in place. Something has to give and I am shifting to range breakout GTC order on ES for the time being by the follwing two OCA orders.
OCA1 - STOP B 958, LIMIT B 892
OCA2 - STOP S 922, LIMIT S 988
That would save me some work on HW as well until we are out of the range :-)
NQ:
---
Last Trade - Entry hit and same story as ES. Stop still saved. I am keeping overnight to see what brings. Stops in place.
I am adopting same strategy as ES here
OCA1 - STOP B 1518, LIMIT B 1416
OCA2 - STOP S 1466, LIMIT S 1568
ZB:ZBu9
-------
Last Trade - Entry hit 112'250, went all the way to my res but rallied from there. Exit 112.
Bonds have given a first good positive day after the successful auction. In some previous homeworks I mentioned that most of my long term projections were met on Bond lows and I was mostly day trading them. Now that we got a good up day, it would seem it could be a trade to buy bonds form long side, esp keeping that 111'19 as STOP. But first, let me breathe a little bit of upside.
GC:GCZ9
-------
As of now I am only focusing on longer dated options on GC.
ZC:
---
450 is still not taken and therefore I still wait on sideline to go long again. ZC is in 430/450 range and for me that is a no trade zone.
BP: 6BU9
--------
Last Trade - Entry hit, Exit Stop Out
I now need to see, if new highs can be taken out on BP or will the double top hold. So no trade.
EC:6Eu9
-------
Last Entry - Entry Hit, Exit Stop out, there was opportunity to take profit but I was bit slow.
call me crazy but I still see weakness in EC. But market is right so I am stepping out for a day other than leaving a simple short 1.4108, ST 1.4270, TG 1.3606 as a trade on for until it stops Or reaches PO.
Other notes:
ZS: I am now actively looking to short ZSn9 if they break below 1248. I am simply trailing my sell level waiting for that break. I also sold 1300 calls on Nov (I am long Nov contracts to those calls are good)
NG: is breaking out up. So good idea, I am keeping my longs from 5.6 (dec contract). My two call positions are in. On next up legs I will sell 7.5 calls to complete risk free butterfly.
OJ: Rolled to Sep and adjusted stop trail stop on short (89.55)
Copper has broken out well. But where do I buy?
Cocoa has broken out as well. Looking for entry for Long Term trade.
Happy Trading,
VS
I would like to share this video by Brett Steenberger on how to mentor yourself to become a better trader (he's funny too to boot):
ReplyDeletehttp://www.moneyshow.com/video/details.asp?wkspid=006EA9C3BDD242D59484B997E425BD941&scode=010473
VS,
ReplyDeleteI have just finished analyzing my hw for today. This is what happened (none of the trades were actually taken):
NQ: My long was not triggered … I was 2.5 p away.
ES: My buy point was triggered. PO was not reached, but only 2.75 p away. Would have yielded about 15 p.
EC: My buy point was triggered. PO was not reached (was probably a bit optimistic), but the trade would have yielded about 150 p.
With this I am personally very happy. On to the next assignment, which I will publish later tonight.
Happy Trading
Allan
VS,
ReplyDeleteHere are my thoughts and hw for Friday June 12 trading:
When talking about divergences I always mean in MacAllan. When calculating my daily Targets (profit objectives) I have used the daily ATR (average true range).
To please my English host I have today also looked at BP, which I usually don’t follow too rigorously.
Main Indices:
The main indices are looking strong from a chart point of view. The only thing that should be a warning sign is the negative divergence on all indices (transports/naz/spx/indu), but it has been in place for some time already and has clearly put a damper on things. It sure looks like a push to the upside will follow once this divergence has been eliminated.
Advance vs Decliners ended today with 18-13 win for the home team.
52 week highs vs 52 week lows today ended likewise with a very secure 84-7 home win.
Futures:
1) EC still shows negative divergence, but has worked off its very high indicator readings. My hw says BUY at 4021, Stp below 3929, and a Target of 4250.
2) ES also still shows negative divergence, but most indicators are still looking strong. My hw says BUY at 928, Stp below 920, and Target of 950.
3) NQ did not reach a new price high today, so a positive or negative Macallan was not triggered. Indicators are looking strong. My hw says BUY at 1480, Stp below 1465, and a Target of 1510.
4) BP is also showing a negative divergence, but with strong indicators. My hw says BUY 1.6475, Stp below 1.6330, and a Target of 1.6730.
5) DX is showing week indicators, but a positive divergence to complicate things. Despite this my hw says SELL at 80.02, Stp above 80.85, and a Target of 79.00.
That would be all for tomorrow’s trading.
UY
Allan
For June 12, 2009:
ReplyDeleteYesterdays Review:
EC worked great got entry and exit levels 160 pips, but I put order in wrong contract, no trade.
ES and NQ: didn't take but both entry's hit and 10 points easy was locked in.
ZC was 1 point away from entry target reached.
For today I am very mixed up with ES and NQ, I know we are in buyer of dips mode, but my bullish post yesterday was met with disappointment today in not closing higher and creating a possible swing day in ES. To add confusion to the mix it looks like we have a potential two day rule in NQ for an up movement. (I agree with you Allen on your numbers I had the exact same, +-1) but am taking the sell due to the Indicators on my end are all pretty sour and curling down. I fought back and forth on what end to play this. but finally thought the sellers had the edge for tomorrow. I also remember an old rule from O's arsenal. Sell on the 2nd day of a new rollover contract. tomorrow I'm going with the swing day setup, but am ready to scrap that if stopped out and go long.
ES: Sell 946-949, stop above 957.5, with a target of 918. Res expected around 928.
EC: I to based some of my entry on Euro around the Dollar being around 80.07. Indicators are pulling up and still in channel. Buy 1.4015-1.4005 with a possible entry at 1.4040 if it can hold. Stop below 1.3930 with a target of 1.4212. Res at 1.4110 & 1.4160.
ZC: I missed my entry yesterday by a point and it did hit my target. Today I would like to buy at 437 with a stop below 428. Target 447, res 444. Possible defense at 929
Best Regards,
CK
All that whisky and it’s still standing, looking very doji maybe, but still standing. I’ll be standing aside until the US indices sober up a bit.
ReplyDeleteFTSE and DAX however have had a strong coffee, reset their indicators and look ready to go. FTSE in particular has been in range bound since 5/5/09 but is now in an ascending triangle that should break 4500 decisively soon.
Buy ZM9 4405 SX below 4380 PO anywhere near 4500.
Grains,
@WN9 didn’t bounce out of the ambush zone as decisively as I would like to see and is now below the 200 DMA, looking to get a good up day for confirmation before playing. Watch 582 as a possible buy scalp if I get bored this afternoon.
@SN9 needs a good pull back.
@CN9 looking good for a break to the upside, buy 435 a possible play.
VS,
ReplyDeleteThis is a follow up on my hw plans for Friday, June 12.
1) All currencies were triggered and all got stopped out.
2) ES did not trigger …. 3.25 p away from entry.
3) NQ was triggered, but would not have made more than 3 p. Stop was never triggered.
4) NG was triggered. Was not stopped out, but only good for 4 cents.
Not at all happy getting all the currencies wrong,
Despite the set back I will be back with homework for Monday June 15 later on.
Good trading.
Allan
A very quiet Friday, FTSE didn’t come down to my buy level, missed by 17 points. Wheat trade should have given 5 points, but I chickened out at b/e when I saw the Corn selling off, my Corn trade would have been a stop out.
ReplyDeleteI’m having a few doubts about being a buyer of dips. But I did find this helped…..
http://chartupload.com/images/ooa4bs8ra1lrqcaeldep.png
Buy ZM9 4412.0 SX below 4390.0 PO 4505.0, resistance at 4480.0 area.
Buy ESU9 930.00 SX below 924.00 PO 950.00
Buy NQU9 1470.00 SX below 1456.00 PO 1500.00
No grain trades today
15th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
ES:
---
Last Trade - thanks to that lazy HW no trade. Our good friend Dee has quite aptly described the ES range trading (doji's after doji's) like a cemetery. We need some ghost busters to bring some life back in these markets. Of course, there remains the trade, buy the bottom of range and sell the top of range. But such trades are bit risky for my liking. Instead I am looking at buying Jun and Jul 940 straddles to see if some value can be found from the option trades. Such range bound action is keeping me on backfoot as far as my long term trades are concerned. So plenty of things to do to enjoy the summer until we make a move.
OCA1 - STOP B 958, LIMIT B 892
OCA2 - STOP S 922, LIMIT S 988
What would really make be true bull is a nice 50% ret of the move from March - June 2009 and then failure to take out 700/740 area. That would give us wave 3 on the longer term perspective as well as completed a nice inverted H&S.
NQ:
---
Last Trade - My overnight trade was exit at profit after the dip at 1472. The other HW trade is based upon the lazy style and still hanging on.
OCA1 - STOP B 1518, LIMIT B 1416
OCA2 - STOP S 1466, LIMIT S 1568
In terms of my reading on charts go, I am feeling that bulls are hanging on some last bit of "umph", MacAllan apprears to have taken its hold on both ES and NQ (on daily charts). I would really not be surprised if we end up breaking down from here for sometime. So I will happily mix "seller of rallies" to "buying the dip" mentality.
ZB:ZBu9
-------
Last Trade - No planned trade.
I would now watch if Bonds start making a bull flag and start buying dips below pre day close in anticipation of move upwards. I will also use this to set up some long term position with 111'16 as STOP. Now that we got a good up day, it would seem it could be a trade to buy bonds form long side, esp keeping that 111'19 as STOP.
BO : 113'030 SP/ND
ST : 112'20 (111'16 if setting up for long term)
TG : 115'180, 115'050 res (for long term I will let the trade ride after collecting some initial profits and establishing BE runners)
GC:GCZ9
-------
As of now I am only focusing on longer dated options on GC. Watch 924 area if we reach there.
ZC:
---
Corn broke out of the trading range to the down side. To me that is a sign. I will try to press downside for sometime until 450 is still not taken. I would not be surprised to see a move down to 405/395 zone.
SO : 429 - 434, def 437
ST : 448 MS 442
TG : 404, 415,407 res
BP: 6BU9
--------
BP double top seems to hold.
SO : 1.6450 - 1.6480
ST : 1.6663 MS 1.6582
TG : 1.6260 res 1.6390
EC:6Eu9
-------
Last Trade - My impatience got better of me after long OMNI call on EC, I started trailing stops on EC and finally exited at 1.3985 (entry 1.4108). I am still not going long EC and I am seller of rallies as of now.
SO : 1.4025 - 1.4065
ST : 1.4166, MS 1.4120
TG : 1.3800 res 1.3872
ZS: ZSn9
--------
I am now short ZSn9 1248, I am long ZSx9 for sometime. I expect the spread to reduce in these contracts. I have also sold 1260/1300 calls in Nov to hedge my longs. On trading hours only, ZSn9 has made the classic island top (gap up/gap dn). I will trade with that gap 1268 as res as of now. On longer term notes, this action is taking place in ambush short area for long term charts and I see 1134 short term target.
SO : 1250-1260
ST : 1291, MS 1272
TG : 1222 res 1228
Other notes:
------------
ZW is not looking bullish at all. However I am restricting my positions into ZS and ZC so avoiding ZW.
ZMn9 has not come down as much as ZS. I am watching 413 level to break if downside is in offing.
DX Given all my short bias on currencies, I am naturally long biased on USD Index (DX), at least for some time. I do not see this as a long term trade but some healthy upside will setup next stage for DX short.
OJ: Rolled to Sep and adjusted stop trail stop on short (86.90)
Happy Trading,
VS
June 15, 2009
ReplyDeleteFriday's trades results: ES never triggered. EC BE, Corn big fat loser.
Not rally comfortable with ES right now, still could go either way, and with NQ really looking like it wants to go south I will wait and see how things shape up. so I'm just going to watch for now.
EC: I wanted to go long the first time I looked at the chart then I re looked at it a little later and wanted to go short (indicators and H&S won out). I have levels for both but will wait to see what big O comes up with.
1st scenario. Buy 1.3950-1.3935 stop 1.3845. Target set at 1.4070-1.4080 with res at 1.4025-30.
2nd scenario. Sell level at my target 1.4070-1.4080 with a stop at 1.4190 and a target of 1.3864.
I'm staying away from grains today and see how everything shapes up.
OK, I just looked at Omni and read others comments and feel way better about taking the short position. No buy for me, but I did think about it and then short if it gets the omni level, but better heads prevail and I will wait until omni level.
Best regards,
CK
Hw for June 15, 2009
ReplyDeleteES: Buy 937-934, Stp 923, PO 954 (Mixed indicators. Still in bullish formation. MacAllan not indicating anything).
NQ: Buy 1482-1479, Stp 1468, PO 1505 (Indicators looking bearish, but still in strong uptrend, strength is however fading. MacAllan not indicating anything at the moment).
EC: Buy 1.4019-1.4015, Stp 1.3839. PO 1.4200 (Indicators not looking strong. Chart forming upright H&S pattern, and right now in a bearish looking flag. Overall still looking bullish).
All three above hw plans could have been SELL plans, but since Transports, Nasdaq, S&P, and Indu all are looking bullish I chose formation over indicators. Transports could not get above the 200 dma, but still in a bullish looking flag.
UY Traders
Allan
16th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Indices broken lower with professional gap (trading hours). ZS has broken down. If this movement appears to be a much awaited correction, the major trend should re-assert soon which will give opportunities to enter new set of long term trend positions. But for the time being, cautious day trading appears to be the game. But remember, there is a danger of two day rule in many markets.
Previous Trades:
----------------
No fills - ZB (115'05 res held), ZC(407 res met, 6 ticks from TG), BP (missed by 10 pip, TG met), EC (missed by 25 pips, TG met)
ES - SO 922 stops in
NQ - SO 1466 stops in.
ZS - SO 1250, exit 1222 at TG
OJu9 - Exit 0.8345 at ST TG. entry 0.9150 in Jul contract, rolled to sep at +0.0330. Flat now.
ES:
---
Breakout was on lower end of the range. I am now short 922 stop 958 tg 892. However danger point for short is that 200 SMA is still below ES. I also see 916.5 - 907 area as possibly buy zone so I will be bit cautious with my shorts now and will watch the action in this zone.
SO : 923 - 928 SP
ST : 942 MS 933
TG : 905 res 911/909
NQ:
---
Breakout on lower end of the range. I am now short 1466 with ST 1518/TG 1416 as of now. Looking to add to the shorts on day trade basis.
SO : 1458-1463
ST : 1488 MS 1475
TG : 1424 res 1435-1431
ZB:ZBu9
-------
I think ZB might pull up a little from the lows they touched. I would like to keep long position in ZB until this downturn/correction move is over. As mentioned, I will be leaving runners on these positions with stop below 111'160
BO : 114'210 - 114'110 SP/ND
ST : 113 '160 MS 114'050
TG : 116'060. 115'14 res
GC:GCZ9
-------
Gold has enterred an interesting area for me. If 929-924 seems to be supported, I would consider going long again. If it breaks I will look for next support area. No short tough for me. Another few days to watch.
ZC:
---
I have 405-395 as a buy zone for Corn. Need to watch that area. I have taken a 1 lot probe long at 407.5 with stop 370 as of now, esp considering I am full up short on ZS. Let me how what action happens if we enter the buy zone. I see more weakness in ZC but I have to trade my setup. Please do not take this trade in isolation.
BP: 6BU9
--------
SO : 1.6315 - 1.6350 SP/ND **** 6315 filled.
ST : 1.6450
TG : 1.6106 res 1.6211/1.6186
EC:6Eu9
-------
EC has a buy zone for me at 1.3610-1.3438 (wide) for LT long position. I will take shorts leading into that zone and watch the action in the zone.
SO : 1.3835-1.3875
ST : 1.3995 MS 1.3950
TG : 1.3586 res 1.3681/1.3610
ZS: ZSn9
--------
If at all I am buying ZS, I will consider buying ZSx9 which are new crop contracts. I have short position in ZSn9 and I am looking to add to that as of now. I see 1134 short term target.
SO : 1215-1220, proble 1208 ND
ST : 1250 MS 1235
TG : 1172 even 1134, res 1187.5 I would not be surprised by a limit dn day on ZS
Other notes:
------------
Bund (German 10 Yr) have made good move on upside, stop moved up for trailing.
ZW is not looking bullish at all. However I am restricting my positions into ZS and ZC so avoiding ZW.
I am now short ZMn9 at 413 breakout.
Happy Trading,
VS
For June 15th.
ReplyDeleteNo ec trade triggered for me, I'm glad I didn't take my 1st scenario. Everyone's postings and Omni helped wipe that from my mind. Thanks.
As for today's trade, I will respect the 200 MA until it's been pierced. Also we are still in the larger bull channel. I see a lot of support coming up and a possible 2 day rule. Tomorrow being the second day with a decline to start the day then followed buy a push upwards. I am however wary if it gets the the 927 level first before heading down to my entry level. If it does that I will not be taking the buy trade.
ES buy 912-910 stop below 901. Target is 927-928 with res. at 921-924.
NQ: Buy 1443-1438 stop below 1425. Target 1468 with res at 1458.
EC: Using the H&S prediction I came up with a near term level of the mid 1.3440's so until we a little closer to that level, I would like to sit on the short side.
Sell 1.3895-1.3910 stop above 1.4000. Target 1.3618 with res levels at 1.3817, 1.3740, 1.3667.
Still a little frozen over the grains so I will wait and watch.
Best Regards,
CK
Traders, thank you very much for this Homework sharing exercise. This has really helped me sharpen my trading skills and I hope it is helping you as well.
ReplyDeletePlease comment if you are happy with the current format for HOME WORK sharing (i.e. one blog post for the month and homework added as comment on the post).
The advantages I see are
- Homework is distributed to every one subscribed to the post by blogger.
- Each comment has its own link (click on the date/time below the comment to get the link). So users can build their own bookmarks etc.
- Blogger provides options to subscribed to all comments as well as all posts (top right corner) which can be read in most blog reading software like google reader. So it is easy to keep track about various comments made on the posts.
Other options I can think are
- Creating one post per author (i.e. CK Homework/ VS Home Work/ Allan Home Work) etc and comments added by that person. I would personally think one page for all homework is better than individual pages.
- Using Oscar Forums for sharing comments. However since we do not publish many charts etc I am not sure how useful that would be. Also I think we will breach Rule # 5 since we actually give BUY/SELL recs in our HW.
Please comment with your suggestions or if you are happy with the current arrangement.
Vs,
ReplyDeleteI don't know why, but I have a hard time finding the right place to enter my home work. I have done it a few times now, but it is still hard to get there. I go to the home work section to the right on top of the blog, and then select "show all posts for home work", but sometimes (like today) I don't end up where I think I should.
Not sure if you understand what I am saying, but I wish it would be a little bit easier to find.
Best regards
Allan
Homework for June 16, 2009
ReplyDeleteFirst of all I have to admit my hw for the 15th was really bad, but at least I included a warning that it could easily go the other way, which it did of course.
Indices
1) Transports were down more than 4% on Monday. It is still in the upward channel, but below the 200 dma.
2) Nasdaq is still well above the 200 dma, but has now dropped about 3.5% in the last three trading days.
3) S&P is also still trading above the 200 dma, but is now only 1.5% above it. It is very close to the bottom of the up trend channel, where it hopefully will get support.
4) Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting right at the 200 dma, and at the bottom of the rising channel.
MACD is not indicating that the temporary (?) drop is over in any of the above indices, including the Russell 2000 Index.
Decliners outpaced Advancing issues by 263 to 42. A positive note is the fact that 52-week highs beat 52-week lows by 36 to 15, and that total volume was well below average, but still higher than last Friday giving us another distribution day.
Futures
5) ES: The indicators are all bearish, and I expect that the ES will fall even further tomorrow. Sell at 928 level, Stp above 939, and PO at 904 (200 dma).
6) NQ: Indicators behaving the same way as ES. Sell at 1463 level, Stp above 1483, and PO around 1433 based on one ATR.
7) EC: Indicators very bearish, almost to the point where they might turn up again. Oscar’s H&S projection of 1.34 makes much sense to me. Sell at 1.3860 level, Stp above 1.3990, and a PO around 1.3640 based on one ATR.
8) DX: Broke above the rising trend line on Monday, and indicators are turning even more bullish. Buy at 81.20 level, Stp below 80.70, and a PO around 82.30 based on one ATR. Resistance expected around the 82 level.
No indication by the MacAllan indicator whether reversals can be expected or not.
Happy Trading
Allan
Monday review….. wrong.
ReplyDeleteFor Tuesday 16th June 2009
2 day rule and bearish indicators have made me switch sides on the indices today.
Sell ZM9 4387 BX above 4420 PO 4275, resistance at 4290 area.
Sell ESU9 930.00 BX above 940.00 PO 909.00 - 904.00
Sell NQU9 1472.00 BX above 1490.00 PO 1440.00
I like buying corn and soy, but I’m not too sure on entry levels. Watching @CN9 around 400 and @SN9 around 1180 but if that’s way off there’s always GTMR.
Good Trades,
Quin
VS, I currently like how everyone's hw is on one page. that way you can see what everyone is thinking on any particular day without clicking on each person. Just my 2 cents worth.
ReplyDeleteVS,
ReplyDeleteI agree with CK, this works very well as it is at the moment. I don't really have time to post and comment up charts every night and rule 5 would be a problem anyway.
I've been trying to talk Allan through using the Atom Live Bookmarks to subscribe but for some reason it doesn't work for him, but I'm stumped as to why. Any suggestions welcome.
Hey Allan,
ReplyDeleteFew changes to make it bit easier for you:
a) On the top right hand corner there is now a link to "Post your home work". You cannot miss it. It will take you directly to the post comment box on the latest home work page - ready for copy/paste or type away. Just scroll up if you want to read others' homework.
b) You can try adding this blog to google reader. If you click on "subscribe to" buttons on top right hand corner, there is option to "add to google". Make sure you add both "posts" and "comments". Now you can come to a particular post via google reader.
c) I note that you select "home work" from the blog map but then you end up selecting "show all posts". That is unnecessary and will take you to the blog main page. Instead once you select "home work" from the blog map (right hand side), the latest homework is always on top. Just click on comments to post your comment. However with option a) now available, you may not want to do this process.
Hope this helps.
VS
Thx VS,
ReplyDeleteI am just a confused alian in the arizona desert you know .... Thx for help.
UY
Allan
17th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Indices have broken down good and it appears that next short term trend is now down. I have still not discounted the major trend and I consider the current move as a correction. So I will be watchful of my various buy zones. Only short term/day trades for sometime for me now.
Previous Trades:
----------------
NQ - filled 58-63 EXit 52-48 (early as I was also short in ES)
ES - filled 923/ exit 907/909
ZB - filled 114'21 exit 115'240 trailing stop.
BP - Stop out - 1.6211 sup held strongly while I was sleeping!! &$@#!!
EC - filled 1.3835/75 - keeping o/n
ZS - filled 1208/15. 1187.5 was the dead low (sup in hw). Exit 1197 Trailing stop.
NQ:
---
Keeping o/n short 1466 stop 1488 TG 1416. 1432-1410 is my first buy zone to watch. NQ appeared stronger so extreme caution on short.
SO : 1466-71 SP probe 1451
ST : 1488 MS 1480
TG : 1432 sup 1435-1431
ES:
---
Keeping o/n short 922 stop 943 tg 892. Danger for short 200 SMA still as sup. First buy zone 916.5-907 was also tested and survived. So extreme caution once again on short.
SO : 925 - 929 SP
ST : 943 MS 931
TG : 905 res 911/909
ZB:ZBu9
-------
I am looking to pass on ZB today as I have a sell zone 115'15-116'11 to watch. For safety I have also moved stop to 115 on runners.
GC:GCZ9
-------
GOLD 929 has held support but disappointed with failure to move decisively up. Still watching if we break 940 decisively.
CL:CLq9
-------
Crude is looking bit tired to me on bull run. Not an all out short but some lightening up and trailing stop and something to keep an eye. 73.90 line in sand for me to be bullish again.
ZC:
---
405 seems to hold support. Keeping my probe long from 407.5 ST 370.
BP: 6BU9
--------
GBP is giving me mixed signals. I am stepping out for sometime. Support at 1.6211 has sent me bit off track.
EC:6Eu9
-------
I am keeping my EC shorts o/n but not adding to that position now. Stops are in.
ZS: ZSn9
--------
30 min and 1 Hr charts seems to show MacAllan neg divergence so possibly some bounce in office. But I will leave that to the experts (Allan/Quin) to comment upon.
I will happily sidestep out of ZS for one day meanwhile.
1134 still remains my ST target for my shorts in Zsn9 contract.
Other notes:
------------
JPY (6Ju9) have made impressive move today. I have small long from 102 area. I now see 101.54 as STOP/sup level and taking up long positions targeting 108-114 on long/med term basis. Only hurdle I see is that 200 MA is still above and needs to be breached by JPY before it moves higher.
I have gone long KCu9 (Coffee) at 1.2485 with stop below 1.15 as LT trade. TG 1.53-1.67. Though it appears a risky bet now.
Copper is looking as short to me now with action on Daily! I will do more analysis.
Happy Trading,
VS
Homework for Wednesday, June 17, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULTS FOR TUESDAY’S PLAN:
ES sell order did not get triggered by a slim margin (3.25 p). NQ sell order got triggered, and could have given about 20 p had it been taken. EC sell order also got trigged, and could have yielded about 40 p had it been taken.
I am glad I could recover from previous day’s very bad homework!
INDICES
Transports got support at the lower trend line of the channel or wedge formation. A very tiny positive divergence is visible on a 60 min chart.
Nasdaq also stopped on the lower support line of the up trending channel. Macd is not indicating a positive divergence.
S&P just broke down through the up trending channel, but stopped on the 200 dma. Macd is not indicating a positive divergence.
DJIA closed just below the up trending channel, and below the 200 dma for the first time in a couple of weeks. Macd is not indicating a turn around.
All indicators used by Oscar are BEARISH looking on the above indices.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 88 vs. 218
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 28 vs. 19. This margin gets smaller every day, but compare this to the fact that on March 6, 2009 a total of over 1,500 issues made a new 52-week low. No panic here right now!
FUTURES
ES: All indicators are looking BEARISH, but there is a possibility that ES gets support at the 200 dma, and then we have Oscar’s two day rule to think about, which implies that a BULLISH bounce may come. BUY 900-903, STP below 891, PO 925.
NQ; All indicators are looking BEARISH, but expecting a bounce considering Oscar’s two day rule. BUY 1440-1443, STP below 1433, PO 1470.
EC: All indicators are still looking BEARISH, but a few of them are beginning to improve. The Head & Shoulders formation is indicating that the down move will most likely continue. SELL 1.3839 level, STP above 1.3922, PO 1.3712 were support comes in.
UY
Allan
VS,
ReplyDeleteI just saw the following sentences (I posted them below) on your Chat.
"I believe they are back VS
Can't you boot people from here?
BTW is your account up for the month?
Mine is in heavy loss".
I just want to tell you it was not Allan in Phoenix who wrote that!!!!
Do you know who it was?
UY
Allan (MacAllan)
VS,
ReplyDeleteOne more thing I wanted to tell you. I do not understand some of the abbreviations you are using … SO, SP ??
Thx
Allan
For June 17th.
ReplyDeleteResults from yesterday's plan: ES not taken, it went to the top of my range 1st and I stated I will not take the long if it does that. EC I was right on at the top of it's level 80 pips give or take.
For today I have the two day rule in the back of my mind, but I tried to implement that yesterday swinging into today. Indicators and patterns look very sour so I'm going on the short side with some caution. Caution is a little due to NQ's indicators showing some signs of life and curling a bit. At least more so than ES's
Sell 917-920 stop above 928 with a target at 904.
EC: indicators are on the slide down and still not in what I would consider bullish buy areas. That in conjunction with some DX levels that I feel have strong Sup/Res I find myself selling EC.
Sell 1.3865-1.3885 stop above 1.3940. Target 1.3644 with res at 1.3750 and 1.3820.
Best Regards,
CK
Hello all. Have been watching with great interest last couple of days. We finally broke away from the graveyard formation and are giving the street what they want. Tomorrow is true testing day. Is it a 2 day trap or will we breach the 200 down to 836, 811, 740s or 525?
ReplyDelete/ES The first part of the day may be a short to test the 200 dma at around the 900s. Sell 915 (mental stop 919) Target 900.
A bounce from the 200 dma would not be unusual.
/NQ has had 5 down days (albeit 3 were close). we'll probably test the 1430's area, bottom of channel. Looks very beautifully rounded on top, could this signal move back to 1358 area?
/6e sell 1.388-9 area MS: 1.393 tgt: 1.372, 1.366
Head and shoulders pattern
/6b. Hit resistance at triple top. Will it now burst through, or does it need to breathe a little more?
Commodities:
Coffee and OJ holding 200 dma, wheat broke through. Cocoa keeps failing at the 2800 area.
VS: I really enjoy this hmk format. I like having it all on one page, easy access. And i like the independence of this format.
TMR: have not forgotten about u guys. Have been v distracted. Its under construction :)
Have a bountiful trading day.
For Wednesday 17th June 2009
ReplyDeleteTuesdays trades all missed entry.
Bearish daily indicators and the recent consolidation are some cause for concern but I’m going with the 2 day rule and support from trendlines and ma’s. Whisky theory (60 min) suggests the bounce may have already started.
I’m not calling entry prices today as I want to see confirmation of an up move and an opportunity to buy a dip.
Good Trades,
Quin
Quin, What's the whisky theory?
ReplyDeleteCK
Its MacAllan - MACD divergence on 60 Min/30 Min chart. I have never mastered that art but there is some discussion here
ReplyDeleteQuin/Allan are the real connoisseur. Quin also has some interesting charts.
CK,
ReplyDeleteI will try and explain later on. Not rocket science, but not the most common way to look at MACD (called MacAllan by some and consequently also called whisky, because it is one very good one) divergences.
UY
Allan
For Thursday 18th June 2009
ReplyDeleteAfter a morning bounce both the ES and NQ sold off later in the day. ES has broken its trend line but not yet the 200 dma. I’m looking for a continuation to the downside tomorrow.
The FTSE tested and settled at the lower support level of the range it has been trading in since 5/5/2009.
Sell ESU9 914 – 915 BX above 919 PO 895
Sell NQU9 1466 – 1469 BX above 1479 PO 1435
Sell ZM9 4317 – 4322 BX above 4345 PO 4230
Grains all held important support levels and rallied. Indicators are starting to point up again. I like the corn the best for tomorrow.
Buy @CN9 403 – 401 SX below 396 PO 415
Buy @SN9 1194 – 1190 SX below 1182 PO 1225
Good Trades,
Quin
18th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
They say on street that in the option expiry week, Monday - Wednesday mark the range and the Thu/Fri day market chops around in them. Given my hay fever with sore headache, I might pay some heed to that take it bit easy. The trend to follow for some time is definitely short. It seems the supply of good news is getting exhausted as we reached the top and now some bad news is coming out (S&P cutting bank ratings, enemployments reaching highest levels and inflation fear becoming deflation fears again).
Previous Trades:
----------------
Not much action for me as I mostly had carried over trades and a mild headache.
NQ - filled 1451/66/68 exit - keeping O/N 1435 res held
ES - No fill
ZB - added to longs with 115'14 stops.
BP - No trade
EC - No trade
ZS - No trade
NQ:
---
NQ acted strong today and 1450 is acting as good sup, it was opening gap on 1st Jun. Although technically that gap is closed today. I still see more downside in NQ, but today's action has created a minor buy zone. So I am getting rid of 75% of my short positions (o/n) on globex open, and planning to build that up again near 1477 if we reach there.
S : 1477-1487 No Def
ST: 1497 MS 1489
TG: 1432/1418 sup 1438
ES:
---
First attempt to breach 200 SMA but closed above. 900 is key level to watch technically and psychologically. Keeping o/n short 922 stop 922 tg 892. Danger for short 200 SMA still as sup. Chart looks weak and 915/918 can be a zone to add to shorts. No planned trade. On LT basis, if 875 gives way, I see next buy zone only at 840/810 region and if that gives way too then possibly the March 2009 bull move is over upon breaching 775.
ZB:ZBu9
-------
ZB made a good up move but met resistance at 117 so may be time to lighten up some positions.
GC:GCZ9
-------
Consolidating within my buy zone of 929-940 but not ripe yet for long. Also there are some possible danger on short side as well as it appears to be topping.
ZC:
---
405 seems to hold support. Keeping my probe long from 407.5 ST 370. Looking interesting to add
B : 403.75 - 401 No Def
ST: 397 (394 for me) MS 400
TG: 414 res 411
BP: 6BU9
--------
GBP is giving me further mixed signals. Support at 1.6211 has sent me bit off track as that coincides with bullflag buy zone but it failed to breakout of flag. I will watch 1.6508 for a breakout confirmation first.
EC:6Eu9
-------
EC seems to have show 2 Day Rule for short. I will add to my positions
S : 1.3953-1.4000 No Def
ST: 1.4030
TG: 1.3633 sup 1.3736
ZS: ZSn9
--------
ZSn9:ZSx9 spreads are breaking down. I will remain short ZSn9 and long ZSx9. I am restricting my buying only to ZSx9 contract as of now. 1134 still remains my ST target for my shorts in Zsn9 contract. However no more trades as of now as I am maxed out on ZS.
Other notes:
------------
ZMn9 Soy Meal spreads are breaking down as well. Since I am short this spread (sell Jul Buy Dec), this is in my favour and I am watching.
JPY (6Ju9) broken 200 MA. Indicators strong too. Stops trailed up. Adding to more position
Swiss Franc (6S) looks a short with .8850 target .9402 stop.
Happy Trading,
VS
Homework for Thursday, June 17th, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULT FOR WEDNESDAY’S PLAN:
Despite the fact that my plan did not correspond to Oscar’s, all trades were triggered and would have generated profit had they been taken. The EC trade was the scariest, and one, which I also took. I have noted several times before, that a sell and a buy plan both very well can work out the same day.
INDICES
Transports dipped down below the rising channel, but finished right on it. This is the first time since the bottom in March that we have had four down days in a row on the Transports. Every time we have dropped below this channel (since March 09) we have had an immediate recovery.
Nasdaq also dropped down below the rising channel, but closed above it, and in the GREEN for the day. Volume was better than in several weeks.
S&P dropped for a third straight day, but still managed to close above the 200 dma, but below the rising channel, which has been forming since beginning of April.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 126 vs. 181
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 31 vs. 19
VIX dropped 3.5%, which is considered bullish (Oscar says not to pay too much attention to this indicator). The absolute value is still above 31 after having been below 30 four to six trading days ago. Today was the first time in four days it did not go higher, although it briefly traded slightly higher than yesterday.
FUTURES
NQ: All indicators are still looking very depressed. The fact that we had a positive MacAllan today might indicate that the low on Wednesday (1437.75) will not be breached for a while. BUY 1453, STP 1437, PO 1484.
ES: Indicators are looking even more depressed than NQ. When ES hit the lows on Wednesday is also showed positive divergence. This fact, ES at support level, and NQ long for tomorrow makes my somewhat bullish for Thursday. BUY 902, STP 890, PO 924.
EC: Indicators are beginning to turn up. EC is in the low part of the rising channel. The cloud on the horizon is the head & shoulder pattern. BUY 1.3880, STP 1.3795, PO 1.4080.
I know that the above homework is controversial, and can easily go the other way, but I am trusting the whisky on NQ and ES. We shall see how it pans out!
Enjoy your trading day!
Allan
For June 17th:
ReplyDeleteResults: no trigger on ES, but EC did collect around 55 pips per contract at first res level.
Today I can make a case for both a long and a short, but I see indicators in a buyer area and curling a bit, especially in NQ. I feel way more bullish in NQ than ES, but will be buyers of both. Today's defiantly a day to stick to what ever plan you have and don't get caught in the middle of the range trying to force anything.
ES: Buy 900.5-898 stop below 890 and a target of 922. Res at 911 area.
NQ: I feel way better about NQ thank ES, Buy 1445-1440, stop 1426. Target 1479 res mid 1460's.
EC: Buy 1.3885-1.3870 stop 1.3775 target of 1.4045, res 1.4000, 1.3950.
still frozen on grains for now.
Best Regards,
CK
I'm watching the indices. I don't have strong inclinations either way.I am leaning short /es from the 914 area, but not wholeheartedly. Allan bullied me into posting. lol. My RMI is dead middle, MACD is still heading down.
ReplyDelete/ec - Based on chart formations of the narrow channel we are in, I can see a long to test the upper line.
Long 1.388-9 (mental stop 1.382)
Tgt:1.403
Happy Trading
19th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Not much HW from me today as I am planning to take it easy on Friday (usual rule for expiration day).
Work started on Grains TMR (ZS). Looks promising. Lets see what brings. I will try 6.5/5 strategy and leave a runner for 12.5/+1 strategy to see what brings for real trades.
Indices chopped around as expected on a day before expiration. Since settlement for futures is at open tomorrow, we would see some action after open. May be tomorrow TMR would be good signal of direction to come.
Previous Trades:
----------------
NQ - No fill
ES - No trade (915/918 area held res)
ZB - Closed all longs 115'130 on Trl Stop.
BP - No trade
EC - filled 1.3953/73/93 Keeping O/N with stops in.
ZC - filled 403.75/403/402.25. Keeping O/N with stops in.
ZS - No trade
NQ:
---
NQ strength is fading. No trade from me for NQ tomorrow. I have small short open which I am keeping. My bias is still short so I will look to sell rallies (definitely if we start seeing 1477 area).
ES:
---
200 MA held so far but Es could not close above this high of yesterday. However 915-918 short area acted as tough resistence. No trades on ES as well from me. Bias remains short.
ZB:ZBu9
-------
ZB made massive move down today. Good that I saw 117 as res and started lightening up positions. I am now flat in ZB. ZB are actually in my buy zone now and I will take small longs. The line in sand for short ZB for me is 113'160
GC:GCZ9
-------
No Change from earlier position. Waiting and watching.
ZC:
---
No trade for friday. Holding my positions.
BP: 6BU9
--------
GBP is now chopping in range. I am out for sometime. My Bias is short until 1.6508 taken.
EC:6Eu9
-------
EC reacted as expected however I am bit concerned by lack of sharp drop. Since I am maxed out in EC, no more trades until I am stopped or take some profits.
ZS: ZSn9
--------
ZSn9 might approach my sell zone 1238.5. I will consider adding more shorts there. The spread is breaking down good!
Other notes:
------------
Mirror Image on JPY (6Ju9)
Exit GBLu9 119.26 trl stop.
Happy Trading,
VS
For Thursday 18th June 2009
ReplyDeleteFTSE futures contract held support test at 200 dma, this also coincided with the gap fill from May 4th bank holiday. A nice whisky buy, unfortunately at lunchtime, was missed.
ES held key support again and looks good for another up day. NQ has more room to fall to support and the inside day makes me reluctant to buy.
(Note Rollover in FTSE to September today)
Buy ESU9 906 – 903 SX below 899 PO 923
Buy ZU9 4240 – 4215 SX below 4345 PO 4200
Grains:
Corn trade worked out well yesterday, but lack of follow through shows weakness, I will stand aside. I still like the upside in soy.
Buy @SN9 1205 – 1200 SX below 1190 PO 1230
Good Trades,
Quin
Homework for Friday, June 18, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULTS FOR THURSDAY’S PLAN:
All plans would have worked out had they been taken.
INDICES
Transports gained 0.73% and ended the four-day skid. It is in the bottom of the apex, but still about 4% below its 200 dma.
Nasdaq was pretty much flat for the day, and is still in the bottom of its up sloping channel. It is still well above the 200 dma.
S&P gained 0.84% for the day, getting support at the 200 dma and the bottom of its up sloping channel.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 178-129
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 40 vs. 6
Volume was lower than on Wednesday.
FUTURES
ES: Indicators still looking bearish. It is sitting right in between the low and the high forming the handle of the cup and handle formation. BUY 910 level, STP below 903, PO 930.
NQ: Indicators still looking bearish, but it is still in its rising channel, sitting right at support. BUY 1445-1440 level, STP below 1435, PO 1470.
EC: Most indicators looking bearish, but beginning to improve. It showed negative divergence when hitting Thursday’s high at 1.3994. It is forming another bear flag on a daily chart. SELL 1.3930 level, STP above 1.3994, PO 1.3730.
Good Trading
Allan
HW for June 19th:
ReplyDeleteResults from the 18th:
ES, no fill. NQ filled good for at least 16 pts. EC filled good for at least 20 pts or very worst case BE.
ES: looks like indicators are starting to point north and key 900 level held today. I think we bounce around again today, but i am a buyer at the 909-906 level with a stop at 895. target 922, res at 914 area.
NQ: Buy 1447-1445 Stop below 1437 with a target of 1465-67.
EC: Indicators look like they are curling down and it appears like there's a mini swing day in effect. (not much of a tail, but I think the indicators are telling the main story) and it still has to clear that H&S so today I am a seller of a rally. Sell 1.3980-60 with a target of #1) 1.3838 and #2)1.3779. Res at 1.3920-1.3900. Stop above 1.4019.
NG: not sure about this one for tomorrow. Looks like the near term a bull flag, but could this be a false breakout from the bullish wedge. Have to keep my eye on it and see. Indicators are curling down.
Best Regards,
CK
Homework for Monday, June 22, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULTS FOR FRIDAY’S PLAN:
ES and NQ buy levels never triggered, but at least the correct direction was called. The EC short trade got triggered. It was taken and generated a profit of 10 p for half the position and 20 p for the other half while I was being fast asleep!!
The TMR does not belong to a hw plan as you know, but I took both the ES and the Soybean. Both ended up being good. Thank you VS for the Soybean idea!
INDICES
Transports ended higher last Friday for the 2nd day in a row. It is still about 130 p below its 200 dma. Volume was above average and every time volume was this good this index has had at least two up days to follow. This was only the Transports 3rd down week since the bottom in the beginning of March, 2009 about 15 weeks ago! BULLISH.
Nasdaq ended up 1% on Friday with a doji close on high volume. It is still well above its 200 dma. This was only the Nasdaq’s second down week in about 15 weeks since hitting the bottom in the beginning of March, 2009! BULLISH.
S&P ended up also having its third down week since the bottom in March. So far it is holding above the bottom of its up trending channel. Volume last week was relatively low. BULLISH.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 187-116 BULLISH
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 56-10 BULLISH
This was the third straight day where the number of new 52-week highs increased from the day before. Since the bottom in March we have never had four days in a row!
The VIX dropped for the third straight day and finished just below 28. The low, since the March bottom, was recorded five weeks ago with an intra-week low of 26.57. Before five weeks ago, the VIX had not been this low since September 2008. BULLISH.
FUTURES
USU9: Since the bond market always does the opposite of the stock market it is time to introduce it in my homework. About 26 weeks ago this future reached its 52-week high. Since then it has dropped 16 of those weeks. It has now had two up weeks in a row, but finished in the lower range of the week. It is now sitting just above the middle of the down sloping channel it has formed since its top. SELL 115, STP above 116, and PO 114.
ESU9: It is still above the 200 dma, and its indicators are beginning to look slightly better. I am choosing pattern over indicators. BUY 912, STP below 903, and PO 930.
NQU9: This future bounced off its bottom trend line for the third day in a row. Its indicators are beginning to be less bearish. Friday was an up day, and we have not had two up days in a row since June 5th. I am choosing pattern over indicators. BUY 1454, STP below 1445, and PO 1480.
ECU9: Its indicators are still depressed, but looking a bit stronger. Its formation this week is still a bear flag for the second week in a row. Oscar’s H&S pattern might very well still pan out, which means more bearishness in this future. SELL 1.3970, STP above 1.4007, and PO 1.3760.
UY(U09)
Allan
Quin’s HW for Monday 22nd June 2009
ReplyDeleteFriday review: First point is that I must have been over tired on Thursday night (excuses excuses). I forgot to update the date on my HW, put the FTSE stop and PO back to front and more expensively completely missed the bear flag forming in soy beans. Must do better.
On a more positive note the ES trade was too conservative on entry point but correct in principle. My FTSE trade was a very near miss (5.5 off being filled on entry 3 points off PO, nearly a 100 point winner there).
This weekend I am seeing conflicting pictures. SPX is holding its 200 DMA, NDX holding a major trendline, DJIA failing to get back through 200DMA and transports looking to have failed there. Indicators on the daily however are turning bullish, except that whisky sell signal indicating a pullback.
The futures all show the same as the underlying indices.
At the weekend I like to step back and look at the weekly charts. A full house of sell signals there.
On a side note on FTSE, my observation is that a strong run into the close on a Friday often foretells a reversal Monday.
All in all I’m leaning to the short side but with much caution due to daily indicators.
Sell ESU9 924 – 926 BX above 935 PO 907
Sell NQU9 1476 – 1480 BX above 1495 PO 1458
Sell ZU9 4345 – 4355 BX above 4400 PO 4280
Note to connoisseurs of fine single malt, if these trades get filled the 60 min charts will most likely look pretty.
Grains:
I cannot find anything on the daily or weekly charts to support the bullish argument.
I don’t actively day trade FX but my reading of the charts is dollar up Euro down which also supports grains lower.
Due to sudden interest in GTMR and STMR being experienced in this neck of the woods I’m going to concentrate my efforts there for the time being, OK confession time my soy trade on Friday got crushed by STMR, if you can’t beat ‘em join ‘em.
So no fully planned trades but areas of interest to short would be:
@CN9 404-406
@SN9 1194-1198
@WN9 565-567
Quin
22nd June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
The option expiration day played exactly it should - in a chaotic way resulting into swings in both directions. However as we progress day by day, my bearish conviction is getting stronger, I know that is not shared by many fellow traders and analysts but that is the name of the game I think. On swing basis I am with bearish bias on indices and for me the ultimate line in sand is the new highs, and we seem to be drifting slowly further away from my lines in sand instead of towards them.
Previous Trades:
----------------
NQ - No fill. 1477 area held res.
ES - No trade (915/918 area held res)
ZB - B 114'065 on MacAllan 60. Exit 115 (fib projection)
BP - No trade
EC - No trade
ZC - No trade
ZS - No trade
* TMR trades are not reported here but ES/ZS TMR trades were taken for 3.5 and 6.5 pt respectively with 5 pt stop.
NQ:
---
1477-1487 area is still a sell zone for me and I am still not able to take it out of my mind so my bias is short on NQ. However bulls might try a chance to close the 15th June opening gap (1485). On a day trade basis I will consider a cautious long, especially if it fills during pre-market.
B : 1461.75-1457.75 small position, no def
ST : 1445
TG : 1485, 1496 extreme. Res 1477
I will call off this trade if we test 1477 first and sell off from there.
My main trade would remain short (on swing basis)
S : 1477.25 - 1487
ST : 1500 MS 1489
TG : 1418, sup 1432
ES:
---
For bullish case, 200d SMA is holding up well causing bounces but to me ES appears to be sliding donwwards on a downward sloping 200 SMA, like a snowball on a slope. I feel the snowball is gathering momentum and likely to jump off a cliff soon.
S : 915.75 - 920.50, add 925.75 esp if NQ long filled above.
ST : 935, MS 926/931
TG : 903, 891 extreme, 908 sup
ZB:ZBu9
-------
ZB line first line in sand (for long) held and 113'16 was not breached. MacAllan 60 came to help long as well (thank you Quin for exaplainign how to get better taste on entry - will try it next time).
For me ZB is in buy zone on swing basis (I do have a long on that basis), as well as there was a minor swing day in play.
B : 114'13-114 add 113'25
ST : 113'10 MS 113'20
TG : 115'315, res 115'14
I would keep a runner in place to become part of swing trade if this works.
GC:GCZ9
-------
Gold weekly appears to be forming a bull flag. On daily it is in my buy zone but consolidating. I am on sideline as of now and adding long dated options if someone hits my bids.
ZC:
---
No trade for monday. Holding my positions which looks precarious as of now but since their purpose was to hedge short Zsn9, they are doing thier job well.
BP: 6BU9
--------
BP threw me a googly (for those who understand cricket and for those who dont you are missing something). Once I remove the fibs giving me short bias, it all looks long now! I will attempt a cautious long now withl very small position first
B : 1.6471-1.6430 Small Pos/No Def
ST : 1.6380
TG : 1.6673, res 1.6605/25
* If BP successfully takes out 1.6665, it may be in some good swing up, may be up to 1.7127
EC:6Eu9
-------
EC tried to throw the googly but was sent for a six. On top of that Whisky trade seems to be setting up in EC. Since EC is still in my sell zone, I will go with a short (BP long might act as a partial hedge).
S : 1.3964-1.3974
ST : 1.4007 MS 1.3984
TG : 1.3872, sup 1.3900
ZS: ZSn9
--------
ZSn9 still looks short to me but I am maxed out on short so no trade other than TMR for me. Zsn9:x9 spread is coming down good!
Other notes:
------------
JPY (6Ju9) mirror image indicates long. Swing day in play as well.
B : 0.010363 - 0.010348
ST : 0.010295
TG : 0.010509, res 0.010460
Mirror Image on Swiss Franc (6Su9)
Happy Trading,
VS
For June 22nd,
ReplyDeleteResult from Friday. No trigger on ES and NQ, but EC did work for 30 pips per contract.
As for today, I feel we still have to go with the long side due to indicators now reset and curling upward. We are also still in an upward channel and above the 200dma in the ES and NQ.
ES: buy 913-910 stop 898 with a target at 928 and res 922.
NQ: buy at 1450 stop at 1433. Target of 1483 and res at 1468.
EC: I see the EC being a little resilient towards the upside and the H&S. small upward trend line held the past couple of days and most of the indicators are pointing upwards from a reset position.
Buy 1.3895-1.3875 stop 1.3775. Target 1.4033 and res at 1.3980, 1.3950.
Thanks for all your individual numbers and HW's great to have another avenue to share ides.
Best Regards,
CK
23rd June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Markets opened sharply down with prof gap (trading hours only) and then continued to remain depressed. On momentum basis, this market has decisively turned for bearish/correction mode and I continue to remain on short side (for swing/position as well as day trades). However volume appeared to be low on this down turn.
Previous Trades:
----------------
Here is my attempt to record HW performance. I am doing that in excel sheet as well for my own records.
MK D ENTR EXIT P&L ENTR DT EXIT DT COMMENT
---------------------------------------------------------------------
6B B 1.6431 1.638 -$318.75 22-Jun 22-Jun STOP
6B B 1.6471 1.638 -$568.75 22-Jun 22-Jun STOP
ES S 915.75 907 $437.50 22-Jun 22-Jun TL STOP
ES S 916.75 907 $487.50 22-Jun 22-Jun TL STOP
ES S 917.75 903 $737.50 22-Jun 22-Jun TG
ES S 918.75 902 $837.50 22-Jun 22-Jun TG
NQ B 1457.75 1445 -$255.00 22-Jun 22-Jun STOP
NQ B 1461.75 1445 -$335.00 22-Jun 22-Jun STOP
* P&L is calculated on 1 lot basis.
NQ - Sell trade (main) was not trigerred!!!!
EC - No fill but trade direction worked well.
ZC - No trade
ZS - No trade
JP - No fill. Missed by 30 pips. Direction worked.
* ES TMR worked for 3 pt (more was possible). ZS TMR was stopped (by 2 ticks) -5
NQ:
---
My short target from 1477 was 1418 which was achieved by $3.25 (1421.25) and NQ bounced up from that region. NQ is technically in my buy zone now (1432-1411) but I feel market might make a next move towards breaching these support areas and target for 1363-1287 eventually. But still I am bit cautious on next short.
S : 1438.75 - 1443 Small Position/No Def
ST : 1456 MS 1450
TG : 1399.25, 1412/1410 sup
ES:
---
ES has broken 200d SMA and the handle is quite broken on that cup. So all case for bullishness should be gone by now. Now it is a game of who blinks first, people who piled near the top and dumping their longs OR people with money waiting on sideline jumping the gun on the pullback. Whatever happens on a high volume day would be the winner.
S : 902-905, probe 899
ST : 918, MS 915
TG : 872.50, 882/876.75 sup
ZB:ZBu9
-------
If stocks are going down ZB is going up. MacD is helping as well.
B : 115'18-115'12 proge 115'250
ST : 114'225
TG : 117'115
GC:GCZ9
-------
Gold has broken down. It could now test 200d SMA. Need to look for shorts soon.
ZC:
---
I am stopped on whatever long I was holding in my buy zone against ZS hedge but overall the ZS short + ZC long was in the money so no complain. Now my buy zones are exhausted in ZC and I will look for shorts. But for the time I am staying out.
BP: 6BU9
--------
BP is in partial mirror image though it looks a short. I will stay out and watch next day action.
EC:6Eu9
-------
EC has given a swing low signal with 1.4010 stop. So that can be used for longer term trades. On day basis:
S : 1.3870-1.3897
ST : 1.3946 MS 1.3915
TG : 1.3740, 1.3789 sup
ZS: ZSn9
--------
No Trade for me. I am short and good.
Other notes:
------------
JPY (6Ju9) now attacking 200d SMA.
B : 0.010425- 0.010375
ST : 0.010355
TG : 0.010555, res 0.010475
Happy Trading,
VS
For June 22nd:
ReplyDeleteResults ES stopped out and EC did rally back up to BE. I'm doing a spreadsheet of my HW but can not past it to this comment section. So I think I will wait for the end of the month to post it somehow.
Today was a good day emotionally, even though I lost my arsh. This is the area I have the most trouble with "emotions". More so on a profitable day, not taking the big day's farther and exiting to early). It does look like the direction has changed and we can put on the bear suit for the time being.
ES: Sell 896-898 stop 912 target 877 with res 887.
NQ: Sell 1437-1441 stop 1459 target 1410 with res 1424
EC: Looks like that head and shoulders is proving to be very intimidating. Plus we have what looks like the start of a downward channel forming. Indicators have curled back down and some appeared to be pinned down.
EC: Sell 1.3905-1.3915 stop 1.4010 target 1.3753 with res 1.3870.
Thanks again for everyone's hard work. Let's keep it rolling.
CK
Homework for Tuesday, June 23, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULTS FOR MONDAY’S PLAN:
Managed to get everything wrong. Not easy to catch markets that reverse direction, even though the trend has not been strong lately. Very disappointing day, and it did not help with Oscar’s very strange behavior to call a long ES trade, and then totally vanish from the surface of this earth! I don’t think I have seen that before. It would not have changed the outcome of my day mind you!
INDICES
-----------
Transports ended down 4.7%, and dropper further down away from the 200 dma. Next support area seems to be coming in at the 2963 level, which is 3.5% away. It also dropped below the 48 dma, which I think is key line for Oscar. It has not been below this trend line since April 1, 2009. All technical indicators Oscar is watching look really depressed. I will have to change my outlook to BEARISH.
Nasdaq ended down 3.4%, and is closing in on Oscar’s 48 dma (only 20 p above at the moment). It is still well above the 200 dma. Oscar’s indicators looking really depressed, and I will have to change my outlook to BEARISH.
S&P ended down a little bit more than 3%, and closed below both the 200 dma and the 48 dma. Indicators are looking very depressed, and my outlook will also here have to be BEARISH.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 37-273
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 34-19
VIX: 31.17 (+11.4%)
FUTURES
------------
USU9: Still climbing and nearing resistance at the top of the trend line in the mid 116 area. BUY 114.50, STP below 114.235, PO 117.
NQU9: Still holding above both the 48 and 200 dma. Indicators are very depressed. SELL 1445, STP above, PO 1415.
ESU9: Fell through the 48 and 200 dma. Indicators are very depressed. SELL 903, STP above 920, PO 883.
ECU9: Still in up trending channel. Indicators look like they are improving slightly. Not clear which way it is going to go, but I will go long counting on support at the trend line it is sitting at right now. BUY 1.3818 area, STP below 1.3790, PO 1.4000.
Corn (CN9): It recently stopped cold at the 200 dma, and is now at the bottom of an apex, which it went through, but reversed up above again. If one also considers the positive macd, it is hard not to go long in this area. BUY 385 area, STP 375, PO 395.
UY
Allan
Adjustment to my hw:
ReplyDeleteNQU9:SELL 1445, STP above 1470, PO 1415.
Regards
Allan
Quin’s HW for Tuesday 23rd June 2009
ReplyDeleteMonday review:
No fills, not even close, but at least direction was good.
Look for more downside today.
Sell ESU9 898 – 898 BX above 909 PO 880
Sell NQU9 1443 – 1448 BX above 1455 PO 1413
Sell ZU9 4220 – 4230 BX above 4270 PO 4140
Grains:
1st STMR using 5/3 RR was a stop out.
Quin
24th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Fed day tomorrow so there can be some "mis guided" movements in the markets before that. Even the way dollar moved today was looking like a bit misguided to me.
Traders! is there a way we can alert each other when some intra day signal is developing - MacAllan 60/30 come to mind. TMR is another.
OTAPMA appears to be breaching we as well on indices. So looks like the down trend will continue for sometime.
Previous Trades:
----------------
One of those ugly days when the only trade which got filled was the one which got stopped! Well that is day trading for me! At least overll on position and swings trades it was all green so no complains!
Earlier HW Trades Result
* Better formatting than pasting into comment column
* P&L is calculated on 1 lot basis.
NQ - No fill. 1412 sup held. On MacAllan basis I took NQ long from 1419 which worked OK.
ES - No Fill
ZB - No fill. Missed by 2 ticks on entry and target was met.
ZC - No trade
ZS - No trade
JP - No fill. Missed again by 8 ticks! Target was 4 ticks above high!
* ES TMR stopped. Upon breaching the downside of range, I took the TMR again and got my 3.5 pt back out of 5 pt loss. ZS-TMR worked great but I only got 3 pt. For tomorrow, based upon collected data, 3.5/5 strategy for ES has best odds. For ZS 12/5 is still best but I will go with 3/5 and runner approach.
NQ:
---
1432-1411 buy zone is still not breached and later on in the day Mac60 gave a long signal too and does not appear to be finished yet. I will turn bullish just for a little while with tight stop.
B : 1420.75 - 1418 Small Pos/No Def
ST : 1410
TG : 1437 - 1445, res 1431.50
I will look to reverse into a short in the same area
S : 1438.50 - 1445
ST : 1456 MS 1454
TG : 1398.75 - 1387 - 1362, 1412/1410 sup
ES:
---
ES is now in a zone where a lots of SMA/EMA are squeezed together and usually that area can be make or break area. Now it is a game of who blinks first, people who piled near the top and dumping their longs OR people with money waiting on sideline jumping the gun on the pullback. Whatever happens on a high volume day would be the winner.
same HW as yesterday.
S : 902-905, probe 899
ST : 918, MS 915
TG : 872.50, 882/876.75 sup
ZB:ZBu9
-------
Pass on fed day. I remember a meeting these they moved 10$ in a day!
GC:GCZ9
-------
Gold has broken down. It could now test 200d SMA. Need to look for shorts soon.
ZC:
---
Pass for some days until some trend comes back.
BP: 6BU9
--------
BP made a swing day (long) after mirror image. Now since it is so close to fed day, I think some of these movements could be false moves. I will stay out.
EC:6Eu9
-------
Same story as BP. These moves could very well be false moves so need to watch out.
ZS: ZSn9
--------
No Trade for me. I am short and good.
Other notes:
------------
OJ is bouncing in my buy zone. Planning to add here .7810 area STOP below Lows.
Happy Trading,
VS
Homework for Wednesday, June 24, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULTS FOR TUESDAY’S PLAN:
Homework was good – correct direction called on all items. Especially happy to get the EC correct!
USU: never triggered, but PO reached.
NQU: ditto
ESU: never triggered, but PO nearly reached.
ECU: never triggered, but PO easily reached
Corn: triggered, and good for a few points. PO not reached.
INDICES
-----------
Transports made an interesting bounce off the bottom of the apex, and will hopefully continue getting support there. Volume was low. Indicators still very depressed. There is a positive divergence in the macd on a 60 min chart. I am flipping my outlook to BULLISH.
Nasdaq went down to the 48 dma and bounced just above it. Volume was low. Indicators are still very depressed, but a few look like they are turning up. I am flipping my outlook to BULLISH.
S&P is sitting right at the 48 and 200 dma, where the 48 actually crossed the 200 line. Indicators are still very depressed, but a few look like they are turning up. I am flipping my outlook to BULLISH.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 144-162
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 20-26. For the first time in a long time we actually had more 52-week lows than highs.
FUTURES
------------
USU9: Indicators still bullish. Nearing resistance at the 48 dma. Negative 60 min macd divergence. SELL 117 level, STP 117 ½, PO 116.
NQU9: Indicators still bearish. Positive 60 min macd divergence today. BUY 1420-1423, STP below 1412, PO 1450.
ESU9: Indicators still bearish. Positive 60 min macd divergence today. It was trading in a very narrow 10 p range yesterday. BUY 887-890, STP below 880, PO 907.
ECU9: Got a nice bounce off the trend line. Most indicators looking bullish. BUY 1.3960-1.3965, STP below 1.3821, PO 1.4150.
Corn: Indicators still bearish, and still below 48 and 200 dma. Bottom in. BUY 384 level, STP below 380, PO 410.
Soybeans: Held support at the bottom of the trend line. Indicators improving. BUY 1167-1170, STP below 1150, PO 1220.
UY
Allan
VS,
ReplyDeleteI have invited you to the MSN chat, but you have chosen not to take it ... yet.
Quin and I discuss set ups and other things there all the time, which are not of interest to Oscar, and I think it works great.
I have contact with AO that way too.
Why don't you join us in there? We can actually hook up all of us under the same chat.
It's a no-brainer VS!!
BR
Allan
For June 24th
ReplyDeleteYesterday I got completely tagged. I got stopped on TMR, and took the EC trade and got stopped on that as well. ES didn't trigger, but was right direction.
As far as today the only planned trade I will be taking is the TMR and possibly something early if it makes sense, nothing dramatic since it's the FED day. Today's HW is strictly for habit and directional purposes.
ES: Sell 898-901 stop 912 target 878
NQ: same as yesterday sell 1437-1441 stop 1459 target 1410
EC: Buy 1.4005-1.3995 stop 1.3885 target 1.4100 res. 1.4040
Not sure how MSN Chat works, but if you have room and want another participant I would like to be involved.
Best Regards,
CK
Fed day is Quin’s lazy day…. HW for Wednesday 24th June 2009
ReplyDeleteTuesday review:
ZU9 sell filled for a nice 40 points, didn’t double dip but level held all day and could have taken 3 times to good effect.
ES and NQ no fill.
No trading today except STMR. Normally on FOMC I look to scalp the 1-2-3 play on the announcement. However with the Fed having no room to move I expect it to be a non-event like the last one.
Grains:
STMR using 5/3 RR was +3.
Quin
Quin’s HW for Thursday 25th June 2009
ReplyDeleteWednesday review:
No planned trades.
The case for the bulls: ES, DAX and FTSE all closed back above 200 DMA. 50 and 200 DMA crossed up on ES, NQ held it’s up channel.
The case for the bears: Most indices forming down channel from 10/11th June. Weekly indicators still bearish.
I’m leaning towards the bullish side tomorrow but NQ is now in an apex so I will maintain a neutral position until it breaks out.
NQU9 Wait and see
Areas of interest:
ESU9 Sell 905 – 908 or Buy 889 - 886
ZU9 Sell 4250 – 4260 or buy 4170 to 4160
Grains:
Passed on STMR today
Soy indicators turning slightly bullish but another bear flag may be forming. Not much of anything in wheat or corn where they are at the moment. So I’m still waiting for a better spot.
Quin
25th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Fed did not do much but market moved as expected. Pump up all the way and then dump. I have noted that fading the pre-fed moves usually come out a good strategy esp if you chose your entry point with correct setup (Mac60 does seem to work).
I was on short side on EC today after first Mac60 signal and traded 3 times with success.
Previous Trades:
----------------
Earlier HW Trades Result
* Better formatting than pasting into comment column
* P&L is calculated on 1 lot basis.
NQ - filled both sides but was stopped on my short by 1$!!!
ZB - No Trade
ZC - No trade
ZS - No trade
* ES TMR, Long +2 and +3 on runner (TL stop)
* ES TMR reversed to short (no trade taken). But I am recording special stats for such occassions.
* ZS TMR, stopped -5
For tomorrow, 3.5/5 strategy for ES, 3+runner/5 for ZS. Will consider trading Zsx9 (Nov09)
NQ:
---
NQ leaves me in two minds still and I have trades for both setups. 1432-1411 buy zone is still not breached. Though my bias is still short. So I will be long with tight stops and look to reverse (this time hopefully bit safely).
B : 1443 - 1440 Small Pos/No Def
ST : 1435.75
TG : 1464.75 - 1467, res 1456
I will look to reverse into a short at 1455 and 1465 area by watching market action there.
ES:
---
I am bit confused with ES. The long setup takes me to 916 and short setup takes me to 876 or lower. On charts I see 906 short area still valid. So I will pass on ES tomorrow and watch the action around between 898 and 906 for next call.
ZB:ZBu9
-------
ZB are showing a swing day right in the middle of my 117'04=118'15 sell zone. Mac60 short is signalled as well.
S : 117 - 117'10 probe 116'28
ST : 118'16 MS 117'30
TG : 115'09 - 114'27, SUP 115'29
GC:GCZ9
-------
GOLD is on interesting play now. If the up move is 2 day rule then a short opportunity will come soon. I will be watching MAC60 to take a short.
CL:CLq9
-------
Crude Oil has also shown interesting pattern. Swing Day (short), stopping in the middle of a sell zone (69.62-70.4) as well MAC60 Short indication.
S : 68.95-69.17
ST : 70.25 MS 69.86
TG : 68.01-67.48, sup 68.13
ZC:ZCz9
-------
Pass again, but I will look for long above 407.75. I am now trading ZCz9 (Dec Contract)
BP: 6BU9
--------
BP made a swing day (short) after mirror image also in line with expectation that fade day breakouts are fakeouts. In addition, there is now a double top (which failed today)
S : 1.6470-1.6510
ST : 1.6620
TG : 1.6220, 1.6310 sup
EC:6Eu9
-------
Same story as BP. However, it has bounced on the support line (earlier res). So I will pass it and look for intra day setup. Howver after today's action, we can say that test of head was failed!
ZS: ZSn9
--------
No Trade for me. I am short and good. Need to start rolling over positions to ZSx9 to cover the spread trade now.
Other notes:
------------
Happy Trading,
VS
Homework for Thursday, June 25, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULT FOR WEDNESDAY’S PLAN:
----------------------------
USU9: Triggered – did not reach PO.
NQU9: Triggered – reached PO.
ESU9: Triggered – was 0.50 from reaching PO.
ECU9: Triggered – did not reach PO, but still good.
Corn: Triggered – did not reach PO, was good for a few p.
Soybeans: Did not trigger, but direction was correct.
Very happy with these results!
INDICES
=======
Transports moved higher up in the apex. Tried to cross the 48 dma, but bounced back below. Still below the 200 dma. Indicators turning up. Volume low today again. BULLISH.
Nasdaq moved higher as well. Most of the indicators turning up. Volume low. BULLISH.
S&P moved higher too. Was above both the 48 and the 200 dma for a while, but settled right in between them. Indicators turning up. BULLISH.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 224-83
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 49-23
FUTURES
========
NQU9: Most indicators turning bullish. Holding above moving averages. Looks like a mirror image with open and close pretty much equal the past two days. BUY 1438, STP below 1420, PO 1460-1470.
ESU9: Most indicators turning bullish. Holding just a little above moving averages. Same kind of mirror image as NQ. BUY 890, STP below 884, PO 910-920.
ECU9: Indicators mixed. Bounced of bottom of trend line. Looks like a swing day, which is negative. Hard call to make. BUY 1.3900, STP below 1.3821, PO 1.4100.
Natural Gas: Indicators very depressed. Bounced off 48 dma from below. Stopped at the bottom of the apex. Bounce could come here. BUY 3.70-3.73, STP below 3.65, PO 3.95.
Soybeans: Indicators improving. Above 200 dma, and held above the 48 dma. BUY 1180-1182, STP below 1170, PO 1210.
Happy Trading
Allan
For Thursday June 24th,
ReplyDeleteResults: ES triggered good for 5-8 points after announcement. EC was good for a max of 75 pts per contract. Happy with analysis.
For today I see the market along the same lines as Allan.
ES: Buy 892-890 stop 875 with my exit at 903-906 and a target of 911.
NQ: Buy 1437-1433 stop 1419 target 1471 with res 1452-56.
EC: I do not see the failure of the H&S yet, it hasn't breached the right shoulder (if I'm missing something please let me know) and it is still in an upward channel. Indicators are flat to down, but I think believe the trend line holds. Buy 1.3885-1.3865 stop 1.3790 with target 1.4000 and res. 1.3940's
Best regards,
CK
Quin’s HW for Friday 26th June 2009
ReplyDeleteThursday review:
Yesterdays HW gave sell and buy areas. I was more confident to the longs side so did not trade the sells early in the morning, however both ES and FTSE sells were spot on, that figures. ES buy was 2 points too low and FTSE missed by 8.5. All in all I’m pretty pleased with that even though I didn’t make any money on it.
It’s a fairly straight forward call for the long side today. DJIA and Transports still need to get above their 200 DMA’s and the weekly indicators still pose a concern that this isn’t over yet, but that is far outweighed by everything else.
ESU9 Buy 907 – 905 SX 898 PO 925
NQU9 Buy 1458 – 1453 SX 1435 PO 1490
ZU9 Buy 4222 – 4212 SX 4180 PO 4300
Still laying low on grains, will the bull run resume?
Quin
26th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Quite a bad day trading wise for me today, again one of those days when I was out of synch with markets. Esp disappointed with NQ where Long was stopped before giving some profit but what I am dreading the most is the return of that ugly up and handle!
Markets have had a very good volume on this up day today. This gives some food to bulls!
Not much HW from me today as I am feeling bit out of synch with the market today and would like to watch the Friday action before next call. Most markets are pulling into my sell zones but the underlying markets look quite bullish. So need to see who gives up the fight.
Previous Trades:
----------------
Earlier HW Trades Result
NQ - Long filled and stopped on low tick! Shorts filled which I had to exit at loss.
ZB - Filled - exit at loss.
ZC - No trade
ZS - No trade
CL - Filled and Stopped
* ES NTMR +2
* ES TMR +3.5 +2
* ZS TMR, +3 +6 (should have left runner on - but that would have stopped! - you never win)
For tomorrow, 3.5/5 strategy for ES, 3+runner/5 for ZS. I am trading Zsx9 (Nov09)
NQ:
---
NQ is looking bullish now and could make a run to 1488. I am not sure if I should call 1477 area as double top on NQ?
I will be nimble with this trade as there are conflicting actions at play here. E.g. if TMR is short, I might not even take this trade.
B : 1456 - 1450
ST : 1432 MS 1436
TG : 1488/1505 res 1485
ES:
---
For me 918 - 926 area is a sell zone on ES with targets in 867. So I will stay outside and see how ES plays in this zone. On signs on weakness I will initiate shorts with atleast 890 targets. 931 is line in sands for to turn bullish on ES again.
ZB:ZBu9
-------
Swing day did not work well on ZB today. I will step aside for a day to see what sets up.
GC:GCZ9
-------
Gold is back on watch list.
ZC:ZCz9
-------
Pass.
BP: 6BU9
--------
At least one trade which did work for me! However it is quite a sideways action on BP (if someone wants another cup and handle, you can find it here!). 1.62 area is acting as good support adn 1.66 is good resistence. May be a box range play would be better on BP now. I am now placing the following orders on GTC basis to take a breakout play.
OCO1 : STOP BUY 1.66 LIMIT BUY 1.58
OCO2 : STOP SELL 1.62 LIMIT SELL 1.70
That will save me some HW time.
EC:6Eu9
-------
EC seems to be bouncing from the trend line! I will try a probe trade (with tight stop)
B : 1.3950
ST : 1.3920
TG : 1.4042-1.4091, res 1.4006
ZS: ZSn9
--------
Pass
Other notes:
------------
Happy Trading,
VS
Homework for Friday, June 26, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULT FOR THURSDAY’S PLAN:
NQ: Triggered, and PO reached.
ES: Not triggered (1 p away), and PO reached.
EC: Triggered, but PO not reached.
NG: Not triggered (0.01 p away), and PO reached.
SB: Triggered, but PO not reached (good for over 20 p!)
Very happy with Thursday’s plan!
INDICES
=======
Transports had the third winning day in a row, and is up for the week. Volume was better than the previous two days, but still below average. It crossed above the 48 dma again, and is now nearing the 200 dma with only about 60 p more to go. Indicators have now turned bullish. Outlook: BULLISH.
Nasdaq had its second winning day in a row, and is up for the week. It is leaving its moving averages and the bottom of the channel behind. Indicators have turned bullish. Volume better than the previous three days, but still below average. Outlook: BULLISH.
S&P had its third winning day in a row, but still down for the week. It is now above both the 200 and the 48 dma. Indicators are now bullish. Outlook: BULLISH.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 246-61
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 59-21
The VIX closed at 26.36, which is the lowest level since September of last year. It is actually breaking below a triple bottom.
FUTURES
========
NQU9: Indicators are bullish. It’s above the 200 and 48 dma. BUY 1455, STP below 1432, PO 1485
ESU9: Indicators are bullish. It is now above both averages. BUY 904, STP below 891, PO 920.
ECU9: Indicators are turning bullish. It has left the bottom of the channel, which it touched today again for the third day in a row. BUY 1.3950, STP below 1.3885, PO 1.4135.
Natural Gas: Moved up and away from the bottom of the apex. BUY 3.85, STP below 3.74, PO 4.10.
Soybeans: Finished right at its 48 dma. Still holding above the 200 dma. BUY 1000-1003, STP below 992, PO 1025.
Good Trading
Allan
for June 26th,
ReplyDeleteResults: ES HW was the same range as Omni so felt good with it, but caught EC trade and was out pretty early on ES due to being in the money and not wanting to give any back.
EC: completely opposite of OMNI, but was 1 tick away from entry and profit objective was hit.
All and all very happy with analysis
Today I think I make it unanimous on entry levels for EC and ES.
ES: Buy 907.5-905 stop 890.5 target 922 with res at 918
NQ: Buy 1463-58 stop 1439 with a target at 1491, res low 1480's
EC: Buy 1.3940-50 stop 1.3855. Target 1.4148 with res at 1.4000, 1.4040, 1.4100.
Best Regards
CK
Quin’s HW for Monday 29th June 2009
ReplyDeleteFriday review:
FTSE long filled for 20 point scalp.
ES buy was 907 and LOD 908.5, didn’t nibble but I’m pretty happy with analysis.
NQ buy of 1458 was way off 1482 LOD.
Markets summary:
A low volume Friday with a small traded range probably tells us more about the weather in London, tennis at Wimbledon and the lure of the Hampton’s to our American cousins on Wall Street than it does about the market.
Weekly charts indicators still bearish.
Daily charts formations bullish, NQ parallel up channel. All indices and futures have broken out of a short term down channel (except FTSE which lagging on this move).
Indicators are bullish on all.
Indices above 200 DMA: SPX, NDX, RUT, DAX.
Indices below 200 DMA: TRAN, INDU, FTSE.
60 minute charts MacAllan divergence on the ES, NQ and TFS (Mini Russell 2000) not confirmed on SPX, NDX and RUT indices.
Overall a bullish stance to the beginning of the week but still caution due to the weekly charts, I have been flipping form log to short for some time now and anticipate that will continue for now.
ESU9 Buy 906 – 903 SX 896 PO 923
NQU9 Buy 1461 – 1457 SX 1444 PO 1490
ZU9 No trade today
Grains:
With Soy Beans not having yet given back as much of the upside as Wheat and Corn I just can’t resist trying to sell the bear flag that has formed.
Scenario 1: Sell the rally
@SQ9 Sell 1140 – 1144 BX 1150 PO 1115
Scenario 2: Sell the break down of Fridays low 1126
Quin
Homework for Monday, June 29, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULT FOR FRIDAY’S PLAN:
=========================
NQ: Did not trigger.
ES: Ditto
EC: Ditto
NG: Triggered, but not sure about the outcome.
Soybeans: Triggered, and got stopped out.
Got the direction correct in all but the Soybeans. There I went against better knowledge and tried to go long despite a bear flag pattern.
INDICES
=======
Transports finished the week up 60 p. Volume was higher than the previous week, which was a down week. It is still below the 200 dma, but over the 48 dma. Indicators looking bullish. Outlook: BULLISH
Nasdaq finished the week up 29 p. Volume for the week was higher than the past 6 weeks, and about 30% higher than average. Indicators are looking bullish, with the index above the 200 and 48 dma. Outlook: BULLISH.
S&P finished Friday slightly, and also the entire week, in the red. It is above the 200 and 48 dma. Indicators are bullish. Outlook: BULLISH.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 177-128
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 138-15
FUTURES
========
NQU9: Indicators looking bullish. It is above both the 48 and 200 dma. At the price level of 1482 it showed negative divergence. The last time this occurred it dropped about 30 p. Despite this: BUY 1470, STP below 1463, PO 1500.
ESU9: Indicators are bullish. It is above both the 200 and 48 dma. Just like the NQ it showed negative divergence on Friday. Still going long: BUY 910, STP below 903, PO 928.
ECU9: Indicators are bullish. BUY 1.4040, STP 1.3970, PO 1.4200.
Natural Gas (Q): BUY 4.03, STP below 3.92, PO 4.25
Soybeans (Q): SELL 1133, STP above 1140, PO 1106.
Good Trading
Allan
For Monday June 29th
ReplyDeleteresults ES level not triggered direction correct, target hit. EC not triggered correct direction and top res area hit.
For Monday I still have to play on the long side for now. ES buy 905-903 with a stop at 890.5 profit obj. 922 res expected 918.
NQ: Buy 1463-1458 stop 1439, target 1491 res 1480's
EC Long 1.4005-1.3995 stop 1.3916 target 1.4170 res 1.4098.
Best Regards,
CK
29th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Not much action on Friday for me other than some whisky tastings. No planned HW trade was filled and I was too drunk on whisky to chase any market.
In terms of general markets, I still feel I am bit out of synch with the markets so I am keeping light positions OR no trades. My reading from charts is consistently bearish (and I see most of my sell zones on top which are not yet broken). This is forcing me to step on side and watch the action.
At least I am able to review OMNI's or collect other stats in this free time!
Previous Trades:
----------------
Earlier HW Trades Result
NQ - no fill, direction right, 1485 acted as res.
ES - no trade, 918 area acted as res.
ZB - no trade,
BP - no fill, trade still on.
EC - no fill, direction right, tg met.
* ES NTMR +2
* ES TMR -5 (after painful oscillations during the day)
* ZS TMR, +3
NQ:
---
I still stt 1485-1488 area as res. On top I see Mac60 on NQ triggered in last hour on Friday. I would prefer to sell it first and see what brings.
S : 1477.75-1478.75 Small Position
ST : 1488, MS 1482
TG : 1468-1460, sup 1472
ES:
---
918-926 is still a sell zone for me in ES with 867 target. Now it will either be breached or we will drop from here. As of now I remain a seller in that zone on swing basis. I have started by accumulating positions in 850/810/770 Sep puts. On top I see Mac60 at play as well. So I will watch for any failures in 918-926 area and sell those rallies. Stops above 935.
ZB:ZBu9
-------
I am short ZB on Mac60 trigger. But on charts I see that my swing short zone is broken and therefore I see some upside in ZB now (possibly up to 120'16 area or higher). I will look to cover Mac60 short soon and look for the following:
B : 117'04-14
ST: 116
TG: 120'07, res 119'08
GC:GCZ9
-------
MAc60 indicated short on Gold. 931-926 is first test area for long for me. Will watch action there.
ZC:ZCz9
-------
ZCz9 has long on Mac60.
BP: 6BU9
--------
Same HW as before until the range breaks
OCO1 : STOP BUY 1.66 LIMIT BUY 1.58
OCO2 : STOP SELL 1.62 LIMIT SELL 1.70
EC:6Eu9
-------
Only key things I see on EC are 1.4150 sell zone on top and Mac60 Short (which is triggered). However EC is on bullish move lately. So I am stepping out before a direction emerges. I have at least closed my EC long positions in all accounts (swing/day etc).
ZS: ZSn9
--------
Pass
Other notes:
------------
Happy Trading,
VS
30th June 2009
ReplyDelete--------------
Please note that a new Homework Page will be created for July as usual. If you are using the link "post your homework" you will be taken to correct page for 1st July HW.
Very lazy day for me as I was in and out of house for various chores. So no focused trading.
In terms of general markets, I still feel I am bit out of synch with the markets so I am keeping light positions OR no trades. My reading from charts is consistently bearish (and I see most of my sell zones on top which are not yet broken). This is forcing me to step on side and watch the action before the bears return.
Previous Trades:
----------------
Earlier HW Trades Result
NQ - Filled and stopped!
ES - no trade
ZB - no fill, direction right, res 119'08 held
BP - no fill, trade still on.
EC - no trade
* ES TMR +3.5/+4
* ZS TMR -5
NQ:
---
For bear - NQ filled its down gap of 13th June. On Mac60 I see it as short.
For bull - My sell zone was 1464-1477 which is convincingly breached. 1410 - 1421 buy zone which I was expecting to breach was not breached!
If the bull scenerio is going to work, 1561 could be the next target!
But I am quite muddled up in my analysis so I will take a break and enjoy summer.
ES:
---
We have entered my 918-926 sell zone with 867 target. Also failure at these levels might create H&S on ES. However ES has been no doubt very bullish even though it has shown big resistance in the sell zone. I am stepping out of this market as well for few days.
ZB:ZBu9
-------
Bonds have breached key sell zones. I would look to buy on pullbacks.
B : 117'20-117'10
ST: 116, MS 116'28
TG: 121, res 119'27, 120'13
GC:GCZ9
-------
Looking for 931. Short now.
ZC:ZCz9
-------
Pass
BP: 6BU9
--------
Same HW as before until the range breaks
OCO1 : STOP BUY 1.66 LIMIT BUY 1.58
OCO2 : STOP SELL 1.62 LIMIT SELL 1.70
EC:6Eu9
-------
EC is actually looking bullish now. But I am still concerned by 1.4150 sell zone! Also a failure to reach higher here can give a H&S. Stepping out.
ZS: ZSn9
--------
Pass
Other notes:
------------
Happy Trading,
VS
For June 30th:
ReplyDeleteresults: ES or NQ not triggered, but target hit on both. EC triggered and hit profit objective, good for 100 Pips.
Today I'm still on the bull side of things but I think the ES needs to bust this little ceiling it's been bumping its head on so the other bulls can come out to play.
ES Buy 912-909 stop 898 target 929-932, with res and my personal PO 922-923
NQ Buy 1470-68 stop 1452 target 1496-98, with res 1491-88.
EC I am going to just watch today because it looks like it can go either way and looks like it is stuck in a wedge with both trend lines holding. My numbers are strictly written down for me to try to keep in tune with EC. Buy 1.4010-1.4020, stop 1.3935. Target 1.4128 and PO and my exit 1.4088.
best regards,
CK
Homework for Tuesday, June 30, 2009
ReplyDeleteRESULT FOR MONDAY’S PLAN:
NQ: Triggered, and could have yielded as much as 20 p. Did not quite reach PO.
ES: Triggered, but did not reach PO.
EC: Triggered, good for 60 p, but did not reach PO.
NG: Triggered, and still in trade.
Soybeans: Triggered, and could have yielded about 10 p.
Very happy with hw, but took the wrong trade of course!!!
INDICES
=======
Transports went a few points above the 200 dma only to back off and close just below this trend line. Volume was low. Indicators looking bullish still.
Nasdaq finished a few points higher. Volume was low. Indicators still bullish.
S&P also finished higher and leaving the 200 and 48 dma behind. Indicators bullish.
Advancing issues vs. declining issues: 187-120
New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows: 97-14
FUTURES
========
USU9: Sitting right at the 48 dma. Nearing top of up trending channel where resistance could be found. Looks bullish.
NQU9: Indicators looking bullish. BUY 1473, STP below 1466, PO 1500.
ESU9: Indicators looking bullish. BUY 914, STP below 907, PO 930.
ECU9: Indicators looking bullish and nearing overbought levels. BUY 1.4040, STP below 1.3979, PO 1.4213.
Natural Gas (Aug): Not looking strong at the moment, but at the bottom of the apex, where support is expected. BUY 3.92, STP 3.85, PO 4.15.
Soybeans (Aug): Still in bear flag. Sell 1128, STP above 1138, PO 1100.
Good Trading
Allan
Quin’s HW for Tuesday 30th June 2009
ReplyDeleteMonday review:
Same old same old, good direction no fills.
Markets summary:
It looks like the holiday week has taken effect already. Charts are still bullish but I’m not going to call long trades due to the low volume and distinct possibility of a holiday reversal.
I’m looking to scalp long off the following areas.
ESU9 915 - 912
NQU9 1479 - 1476
ZU9 4227 - 4216
Thank you for sharing your home work in June 2009.
ReplyDeleteJuly 2009 Homework page is here
Please post your July homework on the new page.
Happy Trading,
VS