ROBINHOOD Tracking

A lot has been said about Robinhood traders on social media and in trading & investing circles. Some call them bag holders while others call them dumb money. They have been blamed for large inflows into ETFs like USO or JETS when the seemingly "smart money" was heading for the exit but if you look back many of these "popular" stocks have done well. So the question is "are the Robinhooders, as they are called, really dumb money or is this just a cases of wall street smarty pants being a little jealous of common man making some dough?" 

Let's find out !!

My Hypothetical Stocks Portfolio

Tracking performance of my views on various popular stocks.

I do not trade stock in general and instead I prefer bigger markets like S&P 500 index future, Treasury Bonds futures or foreign exchange which suits better to my macro driven approach to trading. However it is no secret that majority of investing and trading population discusses, trades and loves to talk about stocks. Some stocks tend to build up enough following so as to behave like a macro indicator for general market. My interest in trading stocks began after I started following and shorting AAPL. More than the trade I enjoyed the resulting discussions with my friends and colleagues in investment and trading circle. Hence I thought about creating a collection of my current views on various stocks and also keep a track of those views. Just for a light hearted investment track record.

Please provide your comments and discussions. Also if you wish you discuss a particular stock please mention in the comments and who knows, I might take a hypothetical position in that :-)

My Hypothetical Stock Portfolio Table

$YHOO : What is hot about $YHOO

Beside a hot CEO, what is exciting about this stock

Potentially heading to 17-11 or even $5?

Disclosure : Initiated shorts after earnings. Adding on confirmation. Stops above the $21.5 highs.

YHOO has had a good run up for nearly 6 months after breaching $16 barrier. May be it is to do with the new CEO and also the related spring clean of the company. And in the 6 months she seems to have put a fire under the stock presiding over two quarters of earnings which seems to have been appreciated by the street and investors alike. But is this relic of bygone internet boom still worth all these attention?

$AAPL : Don't count on the boom from the cash pile.

Why AAPL cash pile will not be enough to bring it to former glory.

How AAPL is a "value" stock and not a "growth" play. 

Disclosure : Last legs of shorts running on trailing stops as per this post.

After a record quarter last night and subsequent after hour crash of nearly 10% (I see a quote of 464 just now, having touched a low of 457 earlier) it is not entirely surprising that the internet and social streams are filled with $AAPL news. Visit social sites for traders and you are bound to find many traders and investors plainly disgusted and disappointed with the results so far. AAPL is present in almost every single active trading account in US. It has long been a hedge fund darling for sometime and main driver of alpha (over performance over benchmark) and therefore a source of popular trade - long AAPL short SPX. This trade is unwinding for a long time.

$AAPL – 480-460 next target

Short setup is still in play

Disclosure : Last set of shorts remaining on trailing stops.

AAPL seems to be losing its magic. Since hitting all time high at 705, the stock is lagging the broader market. Technically the charts have turned bearish with the stock well below its 200 DMA. On relative strength basis too the stock is lagging with broader market putting an impressive rally since 31st December 2012 but AAPL has already given up all the up move from that day. There was a time when AAPL was a key stock for “alpha” – to catch market out performance and several traders used to be long AAPL and short S&P as hedge. Those trades are underwater for sometime.

Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with AAPL. In fact AMZN is making new highs on lousy fundamentals but hey – who said stock markets are “rational”.
With AAPL likely to close below 522 today, the short setup is still firmly remains in play even though AAPL is currently trading in strong long term support area and merits a caution in carrying large positions. 507 area has acted as strong support in past but at the same time its been attacked vigorously and each bounce has produced lower highs, increasing the probability that next attack at support is likely to breach.
As long as AAPL is below 550-560 area, shorts are safe and next target for profit taking on shorts is 480-460 region. For a long side, one of the on going short setup needs to break first before fresh new long positions can be created. May be earnings on 24th Jan can create such catalyst. Who knows.

Is $AAPL ripe for another bite on long side?

Does the turn around from 507 area signifies a trend change?

Disclosure : No position now but on watch for long.
EDIT 14.Dec.2012: The long set up in AAPL did not play out. As mentioned in comments below, the trend is still short.

I am not a stock trader but I do dabble into some popular US stocks from time to time with small position as a proxy for broader market investor sentiment. I have mainly traded AAPL from short side for sometime with reasonable success. Of course, there will be charts on internet which will show that $10,000 invested in AAPL 10 year ago would have been $667,000 by now. Well hind sight is beautiful, but neither was I trading 10 years ago nor did I have $10,000 to invest/trade.
Before the option expiry on 16th November 2012, I have been commenting about a lot of puts being purchased on AAPL to protect from downside. AAPL was in down trend since 25th September 2012 after hitting its all time high and progressively the options skews were indicating that lot of protection being bought.

$AMZN : An Amazing Short

Is this another bubble collapsing?

Disclosure : I have a small short via ITM puts.

Recently a friend of mine mentioned AMZN on one of my facebook post about AAPL. I do not trade stocks much and I am certainly not an stock analyst nor do I “trade” on longer term views. However the conversation made me do a very basic research on AMZN. In short this is what I find:

• AMZN annual revenue growth is about 40% per year based on last 3 years. On trailing 4 quarters basis it has flat lined and annual revenue growth rate is expected to be 20%-25%year on year. i.e. TOP LINE is not growing as fast as people expect(ed).
• AMZN net profits after all mumbo jumbo are flat to declining for last 3 years. On trailing 4 quarters basis, they are declining. i.e. BOTTOM LINE is under pressure.
• On trailing 12 months basis, the shares are trading on an amazing 2500+ PE. Even on Forward Earning estimate basis the shares are trading on 100+ PE.

Source Yahoo Finance

$AAPL - Another day another support broken

550 Support is now broken.... 520-500 is next possible area to watch.

The trend remains firmly short for the stock market darling $AAPL. In some sense, the success of the company has somehow become the curse for it. On fundamental ground there are still some good reasons to buy AAPL given the cash pile, low forward earning multiple and the relentless growth story. However nothing can go on increasing at exponential pace, except Fed balance sheet :-). AAPL as a stock is present in practically every US investor account including leveraged to the hilt hedge funds. Also it would be one of the few things showing healthy profit if it was bought at good time - something which can be liquidated easily in case of the dreaded margin call. Being high beta, it has been a popular proxy stock for chasing market performance. So when the time to exit comes, the exodus is not expected to be smooth.